Just like the 1997 film Titanic, we knew the outcome of this election before it even began
JAMILA Rizvi says the polls were irrelevant. Just like the film Titanic, we knew the outcome of this before it started.
Analysis
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AFTER a whole lot of begging and bargaining, pre-teen angst prevailed. Dad reluctantly agreed to take me to the movies to watch the 1997 blockbuster, Titanic.
As Dad lined up and bought the tickets he inquired about the length of the film, in preparation for what he was about to endure.
“195 minutes plus previews, sir” came the chipper reply.
“More than three hours to watch a ship sink!” My dad was incredulous.
“But why? We already know how it’s going to end.”
And so went the 2016 federal election campaign.
A fog of inevitability has hung low over the electorate, since Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull first threatened a double dissolution election back on the 21st of March of this year. The ungodly eight-week long election campaign that followed was something to be endured rather than engaged with.
Despite near neck-and-neck polling, there has been a quiet community consensus that we already know what the outcome of today’s vote will be.
The campaign has left Turnbull a shadow of his former self. Personal principal is the major casualty of our Prime Minister’s pursuit for a united party.
His lack of leadership on issues supposedly close to his heart, has angered some and disappointed many. But not enough. Not enough for the ship to change its course and for the electorate to deliver 19 seats to the other guys.
After six years of changing Prime Ministers as often as we change our underwear, voter appetite for even more change is minimal. The prevailing view is that we should just let well enough alone for a while.
Turnbull’s greatest asset in this election campaign has been the Coalition’s incumbency. And he knows it. History tells us that in times of political or economic turmoil, voters tend to lean towards the Government they already know. We like to be able to predict how our leaders will behave in any given circumstance. That desire for predictability is magnified when global events become anything but.
Global uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote presented a short-term win for Turnbull and he took it. It’s why the Coalition’s “jobs and growth” mantra has undergone a last minute expansion to include the word “stability”. The irony of this isn’t lost on political pundits who expect the election will deliver Turnbull a new Senate even more volatile than the one he had a double dissolution to get rid of.
But let’s not allow political reality get in the way of a good story.
“STICK WITH THE PLAN” instructed the backdrop at the Liberal’s campaign “launch” last Sunday. Don’t “risk” voting for Bill Shorten and the Labor/Greens alliance.
The now-infamous Coalition advertisement, featuring the fake-but-not-actually-fake-tradie contained the line “so I reckon we should just see it through and stick with the current mob for a while.”
Inspirational stuff.
In my opinion, the political breakout star of this election has undeniably been Bill Shorten. The Labor Leader has impressed on all fronts, taking the relentlessness of an eight-week campaign in his newly sneaker-clad stride.
He’s proven himself more comfortable on the hustings than Turnbull and has impressed on high stakes occasions like leaders’ debates and in interviews with 7.30’s Leigh Sales. Shorten, the man originally cast by the media in the role of boring, dorky uncle, has made over his image with aplomb.
The supporting cast of Tanya Plibersek, Anthony Albanese, Chris Bowen and Penny Wong have backed Shorten in marvellously well. Together, they have positioned Labor as the ones setting the policy agenda; a significant feat from opposition. However unsophisticated the “100 positive policies” slogan, it is reflective of a party that has done the work an Opposition needs to.
But voters remain sceptical about Labor’s ability to govern. Their promise of a larger deficit than the Coalition — for at least the next four years — doesn’t do much to counter the Government’s claim to be the better economic managers. But to his credit, Bill Shorten has managed to communicate a clear vision for the country.
But in spite all of this we already know how it’s going to end. Don’t we?
Standing on the bow of the ship, the outcome of this election has felt as sure as the iceberg the audience knows is submerged up ahead. While the polls show the parties are neck and neck, there has been an increase in how many voters think the Coalition will win. And this — along with the betting markets, which are also pointing strongly to a Coalition victory — is a key predictive figure of who will actually win.
It seems inevitable that inevitability itself will return the Coalition to Government tonight. But I for one, have my fingers crossed — and more importantly a lead pencil poised — for a last minute plot twist. A change of fortunes. A surprise ending. A spur of the moment decision by Rose to haul Jack out of the ice-cold water and damn well make room for him on that makeshift raft.
After all, anything can happen in the movies.
Jamila Rizvi is a writer, presenter and news.com.au columnist. You can follow her on Facebook and Twitter.
Originally published as Just like the 1997 film Titanic, we knew the outcome of this election before it even began
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