James Campbell: Labor’s decision to attack nuclear on cost was a stroke of genius

If the polls are right, this election isn’t going to be close – it’s going to be a chainsaw massacre. When asking why, it’s hard to go past nuclear, writes James Campbell.

Ever since the Great Polling Disaster of 2019 which saw most of us miss that Scott Morrison was going to beat Bill Shorten, pundits have rightly been much more timid about tipping election results

But let’s call a spade a spade.

If this tracking poll – and the other findings out there – is capturing the movement in marginal seats across Australia and that trend keeps going for another fortnight, this election isn’t going to be close.

It’s going to be a chainsaw massacre.

Coalition insiders insist their data is showing something completely different – their tracking poll is holding up, especially in Victoria.

They are even being told they are ahead 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the ‘safe’ Melbourne Labor seat of Gorton.

Inspired by high levels of National Party activity that suggest they believe themselves to be on the verge of victory in the Labor regional stronghold of Bendigo, the ALP recently spent a lot of money polling it, only to find their MP is in no danger.

It left them scratching their heads.

Privately, Labor claim their polling has the government ahead in every seat in Victoria which the Coalition is targeting, with the exception of Aston, which they haven’t bothered to look at.

And Victoria is supposed to be the Coalition’s best state.

Either the Coalition’s data is way off beam or we are going to wake up on May 4 to a polling disaster that wipes 2019 from our memory forever.

Assuming it is the former, the question obviously is why and here it’s hard to go past the decision to try and win an election from opposition by promising nuclear power.

The brilliance of Labor’s decision to attack Dutton’s nuclear plan on the grounds of cost instead of safety is only now becoming clear.

Focusing on cost has allowed the government to use nuclear to highlight its other charge against the Coalition – that given a chance the conservatives will cut whatever they can get away with.

Peter Dutton faces an election wipe-out if the polls are correct. Picture: Richard Dobson

The genius of this was it also gave people who were worried about nuclear safety permission to say they were against it without having to admit really they were against it because it scares them.

Going into this election there was always a danger for the Liberals that they would mistake shared prejudices with voters in the outer suburbs and regions with shared values.

The Voice vote – just as the marriage equality vote before it – showed that on social issues there is much common ground between the Liberals and voters in Labor’s heartland.

But it turns out that when it comes to the role of the state, these voters have very, very different ideas to the Liberal Party.

Nothing in this poll better demonstrates this gap than the fact it’s a disaster for the Coalition despite only 16 per cent of the voters disagreeing with Peter Dutton’s charge this is the biggest spending government in the past 40 years.

In other words while Dutton says that like it’s a bad thing, if this poll is right, it’s clear these voters aren’t so sure they agree.

Originally published as James Campbell: Labor’s decision to attack nuclear on cost was a stroke of genius