Editorial: Polls point to battle

EDITORIAL: POLLS are instructive of voter intentions. They rarely tell the full story. But the numbers which came out over the weekend are illuminating.

POLLS are instructive of voter intentions. They rarely tell the full story. But the numbers which came out over the weekend, and will continue to roll out over the next few days, are illuminating.

As expected the battle in Lyons is on a knife-edge. At this point the incumbent Eric Hutchinson is hanging on, but if the swing is on he may well be in trouble. The polls have him two percentage points ahead of Labor.

The margin appears to be tightening in Bass, the bellwether seat held by Andrew Nikolic. The margin is the same as Lyons (51%-49%).

Mr Nikolic, an Abbott loyalist but a strong local campaigner, has his work cut out.

Liberal Brett Whiteley in Braddon and Labor’s Julie Collins in Franklin appear likely to hang on at this early stage.

And unless something goes remarkably pear-shaped, Andrew Wilkie will retain Denison in a canter.

His stocks are growing and his capacity to comfortably traverse all sides of politics while retaining a fiercely parochial agenda is clearly resonating with his constituents. On a two party preferred basis he would retain Denison by more than 30 percentage points.

But the big shock of the survey was that federal Labor is now viewed, albeit very slightly, as the preferred economic managers by Tasmanians in the wake of the Federal Budget (50.3% to 49.7%).

We must remember though it is early days.

The budget has been widely perceived as containing few sweeteners for Tasmania and while the major parties have been busy dishing out promises up and down the eastern seaboard, there will need to be stronger commitments here to shore up votes.

These do not need to be cash splashes. Just clearly articulated policies to help some of our core issues which reflect the fact that, in some key areas, there should not be a one size fits all approach.

If they choose to merely throw Tasmania scraps of a wider national narrative, they risk being fed to the seagulls.

Today’s poll results shows health remains atop the list of local priorities for voters.

The major parties should take note and never underestimate health’s connection with education. Jobs and the economy are naturally front of mind.

The jobs package announced last week as a result of the “Cadbury” money will provide regional benefits, but then delivery of the message was disjointed and ham-fisted, assisting in alienating the very community for which the money was originally intended — Hobart’s northern suburbs. Wilkie’s heartland.

Cynics might suggest this was precisely as it was intended.

Political brinkmanship aside, as it stands the election still appears to be the Liberals to lose.

But Labor is gaining ground.

The major parties are locked in an intense battle.

From here they will have to fight tooth and nail for the right to govern.

As it should be.

Originally published as Editorial: Polls point to battle