Where Gold Coast’s house prices are heading in 2021

Buyers hoping to snap up a bargain from a COVID-19 house price fall are set to be disappointed - with Gold Coast house prices tipped to rise further. CHECK THE LATEST PRICES IN YOUR SUBURB

First home buyers and real estate investors who were hoping to snap up a bargain from a COVID-19 house price fall are set to be disappointed.

Home values across the Gold Coast have been resilient this year and economists and real estate specialists say not even the looming end of JobKeeper and Australia’s immigration slump will shatter this strength, with CommSec instead forecasting house price growth in 2021.

The most recent quarterly report from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) showed the suburbs of Surfers Paradise (5.9 per cent), Robina (3.8 per cent) and Arundel (3.8 per cent) all recorded increases of more than 3 per cent.

The average house price on the Gold Coast is now $635,000. Five years ago it was $525,000.

“Prices are very resilient,” said REIQ Gold Coast Zone Chair Andrew Henderson.

REA chief economist Nerida Conisbee says record low interest rates are helping house prices.

The price of units remains flat, but BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese said traditional stand-alone homes looked solid, with no sign of forced selling.

“Those counting on a looming house price correction in the order of 15 to 20 per cent in stand-alone properties are going to be disappointed,” Mr Bassanese said.

CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman said the biggest risks were the looming end of homebuyer incentives and mortgage repayment deferrals for COVID-affected borrowers.

But CommSec was forecasting house price growth in 2021.

“The housing market has held up pretty well,” Mr Felsman said.

Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee said worries about capital losses had been partially offset by “incredibly low” interest rates and easier finance.

“A lot of finance restrictions on lending have been relaxed,” she said.

Ms Conisbee said the end of JobKeeper in March 2021 might have less impact on prices than previously thought.

Stand-alone houses have a brighter outlook than apartments. Picture: AAP Image/Sam Mooy

“The majority of people attached to JobKeeper do tend to be younger and employed in hospitality, tourism and education, and are renting,” she said.

Metropole Property Strategists CEO Michael Yardney said there were “too many vested interests in our property markets to allow them to collapse”.

“Our banking sector is underpinned by residential real estate loans, so the banks are not going to pull out the rug from under their customers,” he said.

“At the same time the government understands the importance of consumer confidence in hauling us out of this recession and into recovery.”

Low immigration levels would affect rental markets more than prices, because new immigrants tended to rent for a few years, Mr Yardney said.

Binnari Property managing director David Hancock said falling immigration had been partially offset by expats returning home during the pandemic and surging demand from first home buyers.

“I don’t think property prices are going to drop – people have to put their money somewhere,” he said.

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WHAT WILL DRIVE FUTURE DEMAND

• Ultra-low interest rates expected for several years

• Government spending, infrastructure and homebuyer initiatives

• Easier credit approval rules that have increased people’s borrowing potential up to $100,000

• Rising international demand for Australian property

• A return of immigration and foreign students

Source: Metropole Property Strategists

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Originally published as Where Gold Coast’s house prices are heading in 2021