What early votes show will happen in Currumbin by-election

The Currumbin by-election remains too close to call. Here’s how the count is likely to pan out - and when we’ll know the winner.

THE winner of the Currumbin by-election is unlikely to be known until at least late next week.

Experienced political campaigners say the seat, currently held by the LNP, will be determined by the count of preferences.

Election. Labor Currumbin candidate Kaylee Campradt pictured at Elanora Community Centre. Picture: Nigel Hallett.

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At 9pm with just less than four per cent of the vote counted, the LNP’s Laura Gerber has almost 48 per cent of the vote.

Labor’s Kaylee Campradt has polled almost 38 per cent of the vote.

The Queensland Greens’ Sally Spain has 8.67 per cent of the vote and One Nation’s Nicholas Bettany had secured almost 6 per cent of the vote.

In 2017, David Wyatt from The Greens polled almost 12 per cent of the vote, the party’s preferences go to Labor. On this early count, the Green vote is not looking as strong.

The ALP’s Georgie Leader had obtained just more than 35 per cent vote in 2017 — Labor has improved on that performance.

A political campaigner told The Bulletin: “It is fair to say Labor’s vote has improved. But it’s hard to know what the lower turnout of voters will mean for both parties.

“If it ends up being the poor battlers at Kirra and Tugun, that is bad for Labor. If it is people out at Currumbin Waters they are LNP voters.

The LNP’s Laura Gerber casts her vote at Elanora State High School. Picture: Nigel Hallett.

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“They are counting pre-poll and not postals. You would not want to make a call on this without counting postal votes. It will come down to preferences will a result probably not known until next week.”

By 9.16pm, with about 6000 votes counted, the swing to Labor according to is scrutineers was about one per cent. About 12,000 votes are still to be counted.

The by-election has been plagued by controversy since former Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey’s spectacular departure earlier this year.

Ms Stuckey cited mental health issues and alleged bullying as the reason for her sudden exit, going on to announce her resignation from the party less than two weeks out from the election.

Signage at Palm Beach during the 2020 Currumbin by-election. Picture: Paul Weston

The announcement of LNP candidate Laura Gerber sparked further contention within the party, after leaked emails revealed a behind-the-scenes war between LNP state president David Hutchinson and Currumbin branch president Chris Crawford.

Mr Crawford wrote the decision was a “shameful episode” in the party’s history.

Other branch members revealed they were given an “impossible” three hours notice to submit their nominations before Ms Gerber was announced as the candidate.