Queensland Election 2020: Ten things we learned from the Gold Coast election results

From the spectacular fall of One Nation to the steady climb of Gaven MP Meaghan Scanlon - here are the ten things we learned from the Queensland election on the Gold Coast. SEE THE FULL LIST

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THIS State poll has been staged in extraordinary times, with more people either postal or prepoll voting before election day and some real shocks in the Gold Coast results.

By checking the 2017 results with the current count and talking to campaign strategists, it is clear some parties and candidates are on the nose, while others the big winners.

Here are the ten things we learned from the State election on the Gold Coast.

Bonney MP Sam O'Connor social distancing at a polling booth on the Gold Coast.

(1) The collapse of the One Nation vote in the north.

In Theodore, One Nation’s vote which was 19 per cent in 2017 dropped to 6.88 per cent. In Coomera it collapsed, from 20 per cent to 8 per cent. A lot of supporters appear to have turned to Labor. Pauline Hanson did not put a toe in the surf here.

Senator Pauline Hanson — where was she. PICTURE: MATT TAYLOR.

(2) Labor could win two more northern Coast seats.

Labor has one MP on the Coast, Meaghan Scanlon in Gaven. Theodore and Coomera still remain “in play”, the LNP will most likely retain them but the next election could see both be Labor seats.

(3) The rise of Meaghan Scanlon.

She has increased her primary vote in Gaven one of the State’s most marginal seats from 43 per cent to 48.26 per cent. It’ll never be safe for Labor but she is making it safer.

Meaghan Scanlon on election night. Picture: NIGEL HALLETT.

(4) Residents will vote for hard-working MPs.

The vote for Meaghan Scanlon in Gaven and the LNP’s Sam O’Connor in Bonney show residents in marginal seats will reward MPs focused on local issues. Mr O’Connor’s primary vote has increased from 43.87 per cent to 54.39 per cent despite Labor working hard on the booths. This proves an MP who connects with a community can storm-proof their result from swings against their party.

(5) Greens go backwards.

The Greens had a lot to celebrate with their South Brisbane win on Saturday night. It was obvious Labor’s Jackie Trad faced a massive campaign with Greens troops doorknocking residents. On the Coast, all their results went backward, and some candidates were missing on polling day. The party is getting half of its potential vote here.

Light rail — what impact at the poll. Pic Mike Batterham.

(6) Shock light rail vote.

Burleigh LNP MP Michael Hart did not receive the expected boost in votes from anti-light rail supporters. Many thought this would help him boost his margin. His primary vote dropped by almost 10 per cent. Labor strategists are convinced the ALP vote, which increased, was in part due to pro-light rail residents or “the silent majority”.

(7) Independent candidates and minor parties rejected by voters

Some independent candidates are managing only a few hundred votes. Many of the minor parties went backwards. Voters will not be convinced to vote for you by simply running a Facebook page or advertising. They want people prepared to wear the boot leather out, knock on their door, attend community meetings and answer media questions.

Labor Currumbin candidate Kaylee Campradt, Deputy Premier Steven Miles and former Currumbin LNP MP Jann Stuckey. Photo: Steven Miles / Twitter

(8) Jann Stuckey factor

Currumbin results suggest Jann Stuckey’s personal vote was worth at least five per cent. The former long-serving MP worked at the booths for her husband, Dr Richard Stuckey, who ran as an independent. The couple did not have a lot of back-up on polling day, which would have improved their vote. Their preferences went to Labor’s Kaylee Campradt. She will be hoping for more votes from the pre-poll where the Stuckeys attended each day.

Laura Gerber casts her vote at Elanora State High School — she had to deal with the political ghost of Jann Stuckey. Picture: NIGEL HALLETT.

(9) The LNP remain entrenched on the Glitter Strip.

The voting results show John-Paul Langbroek in Surfers Paradise and Ray Stevens in Mermaid Beach could take a vacation to Kingscliff during the campaign and still win. Wealthy retirees remain the most rusted on voters, reluctant to leave the blue team.

(10) The north of the Gold Coast will become the future political battleground.

Thousands of residents are moving into homes at Pimpama and Coomera in the city’s north. None of them know anything about the local MP. The State poll showed how both parties targeted areas outside of Brisbane to pick up seats. This is where pollies from both sides will now start to focus on during the next four years.

Follow @PaulWestonGC