Betting odds narrow in Forde, Rankin and Bowman as Budget looms

With less than a week to go before the federal government’s pre-election budget, the betting odds for the two major parties are getting closer in these southeast Queensland seats.

Sportsbets has odds for all seats with the odds narrowing in some of the more interesting seats.

With less than a week to go before the federal government’s pre-election budget, the betting odds for the two major parties are narrowing.

Roy Morgan statistics this week showed the Coalition was leading the Labor Party in polling in Queensland by 54.5 per cent compared to the ALP on 43.5 per cent.

Political experts are focusing on four outer metropolitan electorates including the bellwether seat of Forde, even though the election is yet to be called and not all candidates have been announced.

Forde candidates: clockwise from top left: Sitting MP Bert van Manen; ALP candidate Rowan Holzberger; United Australia Party's Roxanne O'Halloran; The New Liberals Samuel Holland; The Greens Jordan Hall and Animal Justice Party's Linda McCarthy.

Online gambling company Sportsbet narrowed its odds for the southside seat of Forde with the Liberal Party’s sitting member Bert van Manen on $1.10 and the Labor Party’s Rowan Holzberger on $6.

Mr Holzberger’s odds narrowed from $11 to $6 over the past two weeks.

Sportsbet has outsiders in the Forde race as United Australia Party candidate Roxanne O’Halloran on $101 with Greens candidate Jordan Hall on $34.

If One Nation ran a candidate in the seat, Sportsbet had them to win at $51 along with any independent candidate.

Linda McCarthy is running for the Animal Justice party, but is not included in the betting tab.

Another southside seat, which has caught the eye of punters and political analysts alike, is the seat of Bowman, which covers Redland City and is being vacated by long-time sitting MP Andrew Laming.

BOWMAN candidates for the federal election 2022: clockwise from top left: ALP's Donisha Duff; LNP's Henry Pike; The New Liberal's Phil Johnson; outgoing MP Andrew Laming; United Australia Party's Mary-Jane Stevens; and The Greens Ian Mazlin.

Sportsbet has the Bowman coalition candidate, Henry Pike at $1.15 with the Labor candidate, Donisha Duff, on $5. Both would be first-time federal MPs if elected.

United Australia Party’s Mary-Jane Stevens was placed at $101 to win with the Greens candidate Ian Mazlin at $34.

Mr Pike met with Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Monday when the $1.8 billion City Deal was announced in Brisbane.

He has overcome publicity about “fatshaming” comments he made 20 years ago and launched a grassroots campaign based on ensuring no parking fees at the Redland Hospital.

Ms Duff has voiced her opinion on building 3500 units at the Toondah Harbour port, where barges leave for North Stradbroke Island.

Mr Laming, who pulled out of the race after a series of legal battles about online stories, said he was looking forward to going back to work as an ophthalmologist and helping indigenous people in remote north Queensland electorates.

“I will be continuing my community work as well as there is plenty more political work for me to do in Redlands,” he said.

Mr Laming declined to say whether he would be running for a state seat at the next election.

RANKIN candidates for the 2022 election, clockwise from top left:

Political analyst Professor Anne Tiernan said Forde, Longman, Dickson and Petrie were Labor Party targets but until the budget was handed down it would be difficult to gauge voter sentiment.

She said Tuesday’s budget was likely to offer special one-off handouts for middle-income families but not help those in lower socio-economic situations.

However, she said disgust with both major parties was significant.

“That will affect seats such as Forde where there is a higher proportion of people in lower socio-economic circumstances,” she said.

“Palmer is spending all this money but we don’t know how that is going to play out yet and maybe people who are being polled are not telling the truth about their voting preferences but clearly the independents are gaining some traction.”

For Labor to win government, it needs to add an extra seven seats to its 69 to hold a one-seat majority of 76.

FORDE: (bellwether) 8.6% margin LNP

HELD: LNP Bert van Manen since 2010 with an 8 per cent margin.

LNP: Bert van Manen (sitting LNP)

ALP: Rowan Holzberger

GREENS: Jordan Hall

UAP: Roxanne O’Halloran

TNL: Samuel Holland

AJP: Linda McCarthy

RANKIN Safe Labor 6.4% margin

ALP: HELD Jim Chalmers Shadow Treasurer

LNP: No candidate

GREENS: Neil Cotter

UAP: Jeffery Crank

PHON: Glen Cookson

AJP: Suzanne Clarke

BOWMAN

VACANT: Andrew Laming won’t contest

LNP: Henry Pike

ALP: Donisha Duff

GREENS: Ian Mazlin

UAP: Mary-Jane Stevens

TNL: Phil Johnson

AJP: No

Originally published as Betting odds narrow in Forde, Rankin and Bowman as Budget looms