Gold Coast real estate: When median house values will hit $1m again

A leading developer has warned a key element of the Gold Coast’s property industry will “drop dramatically in coming weeks as the city’s increasingly tight property market collides with strong migration numbers.

The average price of Gold Coast properties is tipped to shoot past the $1m mark by December as the city’s increasingly tight property market collides with strong migration numbers.

Property and real estate figures say 2023 will be a difficult year for the industry as it comes down from the peaks of the Covid boom and faces further interest rates rises.

In December the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates to 3.1 per cent, the eighth consecutive monthly rise.

That figure is expected to rise again when the RBA meets next month.

While several large tower projects are on track to begin construction within weeks, leading developers, including Homecorp boss Ron Bakir are less bullish and expect further slowing of the market.

Tim Lawless

But with the city’s population continuing to climb, CoreLogic research boss Tim Lawless is tipping property prices to increase rapidly once interest rates stabilise following months of declining values on the back of a changing market.

“Typical house value are still up $332,000 from where they were pre-Covid while units are still up $190,000 in the same period, but what we are seeing right now is a structural change to the overall demand profile for the Gold Coast, with more people willing to base themselves here and work in Sydney or Melbourne,” he said.

“We don’t expect housing prices will go up until interest rates stabilise and we could be looking at the cash rate being cate as early as late 2023.

Surfers Paradise Hi Rise buildings, part of the Gold Coast Skyline. Picture Glenn Hampson.

“But with the trend of people moving to the Gold Coast and an undersupply of new housing, you will have to expect the Gold Coast market will outperform the other regions and you can expect the median value will soon rise above $1m again.”

Gold Coast property prices increased 53.5 per cent between March 2020 and the end of 2022, while Brisbane’s rose 36 per cent during the same era.

However, values have fallen 7.4 per cent or about $67,000 in the current financial year.

The Coast previously had a median property value of $1m between January and September of 2022 when interest rates rises saw values fall to the current median value of $989,000.

Dane Atherton, director of Harcourts Coastal. Picture Glenn Hampson

Leading real estate agent Dane Atherton, principal of Harcourts Coastal, is tipping more developments will get off the ground in 2023 after a strong finish to 2023.

“Notwithstanding the Covid property boom, the Gold Coast has shown the most reliance in the past year and absorbed the interest rate raises well,” he said.

“It is no surprise that banks are looking at our region and want to back the market.

“We did $200m of sales in November which is on par with the record months at the height of Covid and among the top five months of all time for us.”

Leading developers including Harry Triguboff, Soheil Abedian, Tony Fung, Tim Gurner and Tim Gordon are all either launching new projects to the market or beginning on construction of billions of dollars worth of projects in the first three months of the year.

Ron Bakir Photo: Regi Varghese

However, Mr Bakir, who has two projects underway, is tipping sales to drop dramatically in the early months of the year thanks to further interest rates rises after higher-than-expected inflation figures.

“With interest rates continuing to climb, rates of sale will drop dramatically in early 2023 but the benefit the Gold Coast is that we do not have enough stock and people require homes to live,” he said.

“However, there is also a massive shortage of commercial-quality builders

“If we can fix the builder issue we will be able to deliver enough product

“Consumer confidence is dropping so it will be a very interesting 2023 and we will have a rebound in 2023.”

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