Gold Coast light rail to airport looking about as likely as the arrival of a planeful of dodos

THE GREAT LIGHT RAIL DEBATE Trams have been an extraordinary success, but it looks more likely that a planeful of sprightly dodos will reach the airport. VOTE IN OUR POLL

It’s by far the most successful transport innovation the Gold Coast has ever witnessed.

The public love it, voting with their feet and making more than one million trips per month.

It was the first public transport option to return to pre-Covid levels after the pandemic.

And yet, amid much stimulating talk about sustainable transport, in particular the need for more “active travel” and electric buses, at a transport forum organised by the Gold Coast Central Chamber of Commerce last week, there was barely a mention of the gloriously successful and all-electric light rail.

How could this be? Your columnist can only speculate, but a number that has recently been aired may have made the celebrated trams suddenly become the elephant in the room. That number is the truly frightening figure of 7.6 billion.

It’s the upper estimate, in dollars, for the extension of the light rail from Burleigh to the airport, arrived at in a preliminary business case completed in March this year.

Even the most passionate of light rail enthusiasts know what such a figure means - that the project is dead in the water.

An artist impression from the Gold Coast Airport masterplan showing a light rail station near the terminal. Picture: Supplied

If 13km of track is to cost anything like that amount, there’s more chance of a Bonza plane loaded with sprightly dodos touching down in Tugun than there is of cheerful yellow trams pulling up at its front door.

In fact, the very suggestion of the possibility may well have stopped the project dead in its tracks.

Even the report’s lowball figure – $3.13 billion – is pretty fearsome. Its best estimate, $4.467 billion, also appears a bit of a non-starter.

In contrast, although only just over half the length, the city will get far better value for the mere $1.2 billion being spent on the stage three extension currently underway to Burleigh.

Speaking to guests gathered at the forum about the matter, it’s clear the debate is only heading one way – and it’s not down the highway to the airport.

Asked by your columnist what would happen if the LNP won government in October, Shadow Transport Minister Steve Minnikin pledged to “completely review” the project, with all options on the table.

If that’s anything like the current government’s review of the $3.6 billion plan to rebuild the Gabba, then it would be the final nail in the coffin for the controversial project.

Shadow Minister for Transport and Main Roads Steve Minnikin at Broadbeach on the Gold Coast. Picture: Keith Woods.

Pressed on the matter by your columnist, Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon was scarcely more encouraging.

Asked if she was confident Stage 4 would proceed if it is Labor that wins in October, Ms Scanlon simply said: “I’m confident that we’ll continue to invest in public transport.”

It should be noted that both politicians were at pains to make clear their liking for light rail, with Ms Scanlon especially keen to point out that it was a Labor government that built stages one, two and three.

But even so, their words will have sent fresh shudders down the spine of the promoters of light rail.

Truth is, the winds are shifting decisively towards another option.

There is an important context in which the projected costings of stage four have been produced. While those 13km of light rail may cost anywhere between $3.13 billion and $7.6 billion, work is pushing ahead to build a 19km heavy rail track from Beerwah to Caloundra in the Sunshine Coast on time for the Olympics. The cost of that project? $5.5 billion.

It’s 16km from Varsity Lakes, where the Gold Coast heavy rail line terminates, to Gold Coast Airport. The land needed has been preserved by the current government.

How much might that extension cost in today’s money? Would it be better value than the light rail option, especially if coupled with long-promised east-west connections?

Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon pictured at the Coomera Connector work site last Saturday. Picture: Richard Gosling.

It’s long been argued by light rail proponents, including Mayor Tom Tate, that it is important the route to the airport is completed in time for the 2032 Games. But in many ways, the Games argument favours heavy rail even more, given its direct and efficient connections to the proposed Athletes'’ Village in Robina, and of course, to central Brisbane.

It may well be that the politicians are lining up to deliver the last rites to light rail Stage 4.

But as Mr Minnikin acknowledged in his conversation with this column last Friday, connections to the airport need to be looked at. Ms Scanlon, too, was quick to point out that Labor would “like to see a heavy rail connection”.

This column remains a fan of the trams. Many of the arguments made by opponents are pure bunkum and easily countered by the facts.

The likely cost is a more serious problem. It may mean the project cannot proceed.

However the fact remains our airport is now an island in a sea of traffic. Light rail must not be junked unless a serious alternative is put in place, and can be built in time for the Olympics.

At present, the smart money has to be on that being heavy rail.

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