Gold Coast birth rate takes fresh tumble – here’s what it means for the city’s future

A simple statistic has shone the light on the rapidly changing nature of the Gold Coast – and experts say the trend is only likely to continue. Check the data for your suburb.

The number of babies born on the Gold Coast has dramatically dropped as the city’s fertility rate tumbles.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals that 6869 bundles of joy were born to parents living on the Coast last year.

Despite the fact the city’s population has surged from about 550,000 people to almost 700,000 people in the meantime, that’s less than the 7074 recorded a decade earlier in 2014. It’s also a steep decline on the 7653 births recorded in 2021 when birth rates spiked during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Suburbs including Yatala and Pimpama North at the very northern tip of the city are bucking the trend with total fertility rates – the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime – above the 2.1 level needed to sustain population levels. At the height of the ‘baby boom’ years in 1961 the rate was 3.55.

Currumbin Waters and Elanora are also proving to be hot spots for bubs, with fertility rates above two.

But the overall trend is very much downwards, with considerably less children in most suburbs.

Burleigh Heads welcomed 122 bubs in 2013 but just 85 in 2023, in Southport numbers have declined from 691 a decade ago to 565 last year and in Pacific Pines numbers tumbled from 312 to 228. The overall population in those areas had risen over the period, meaning the proportion of young people is getting ever lower.

At the most extreme, swanky Main Beach is an almost baby-free zone, with just nine infants welcomed to the area in 2023.

It’s contributed to the Gold Coast’s average fertility rate falling from 1.76 in 2014 to 1.56 in 2023.

Dr Aude Bernard from the Queensland Centre for Population Research at The University of Queensland said the Gold Coast’s declining fertility rate was part of a long-term trend.

“The birth rates have been declining continuously since the late sixties. And we’ve observed the same trends in other developed countries,” she said.

“There are these long term secular trends that have to do with more women being in the labour force, for example.

“There might short term forces that accentuate the trend like cost of living, but I don’t think they’re the main drivers.”

Dr Bernard said that in the case of the Gold Coast the number of skilled migrants who came to the city was also likely a factor in dragging down the average fertility rate, with such people more likely to be focused on work than starting a family.

“If you have a rise in migrants, and we have a growing number of skilled migrants for example, we know they have lower fertility than the general population because they are more likely to be employed, they have higher levels of education, so this could also contribute to the decline in the short term,” she said.

“I think it’s the combination of all these factors.”

The declining birth rate meant continued immigration would be necessary to avoid an ageing population and pressures on business from a lack of workers, Dr Bernard said.

The decline in the Gold Coast’s birth rate is reflected in tumbling enrolments at state schools, with the Bulletin last year reporting that the state system had lost more than a thousand pupils in just 12 months.

The biggest drops were at primary school level, with numbers at some schools down more than 10 per cent.

The declining Gold Coast birth rate is also reflected nationally, with ABS head of demography statistics Beidar Cho saying there were fewer births last year in most states and territories.

Ms Cho said ABS data also showed women were choosing to have babies later in life, impacting the overall fertility rate.

“The long-term decline in fertility of younger mums as well as the continued increase in fertility of older mums reflects a shift towards later childbearing,” Ms Cho said.

“Together, this has resulted in a rise in median age of mothers to 31.9 years, and a fall in Australia’s total fertility rate.”

KPMG director planning and infrastructure economics Terry Rawnsley .

Following the release of its own research on the matter recently, economist Terry Rawnsley from KPMG Australia said cost-of-living pressures were working to accelerate the decline in the country’s fertility rate.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” he said.

“We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Ellie Gonsalves created a social media sensation when she posted a list of more than 100 reasons not to have children. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images.

WOMEN UNDER PRESSURE ‘TO DO IT ALL’

Gold Coast model and influencer Ellie Gonsalves says that women today are under pressure to do and have it all” – by having both children and a successful career.

Ms Gonsalves sparked a social media sensation when she last year posted a list of more than 100 reasons not to have children.

Speaking on her In Real Life podcast with husband Ross Scutts she said misogyny was still a major problem, with many people holding women to “ridiculous” standards.

“It’s just stupid the pressure that is put on women to have children,” she said. “And not just to have children, it is the expectation to do it all. To have children, but to have a career and take care of your kids 24/7.

“ ... You’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t. You have to do what makes you personally happy and f*** everything else.

“You just have to drown out that ridiculous noise and society’s expectations and people’s expectations around you and just do what’s good for you. Because no one else can tell you what’s good for you.”

Ellie Gonsalves and Ross Scutts discussing in their In Real Life podcast. Picture: YouTube

Ms Gonsalves said the cost of living was also heaped extra pressure on women and made having children more difficult.

“You look back at when our parents had us, being a stay at home mum was enough. That is what you did. And your husband went to work, he was the bread-winner,” she said.

“But now, it is so expensive to live and put your kids through childcare, through school, it’s so expensive. A lot of parents are now having to go back to work, both of them.

“So women are expected to not just be a mum, a parent, to grow that child inside of her for nine months, but no matter how disruptive or insane it is, you still get bills, you still have bills to pay.

“Just because you’re pregnant, just because you just had a kid, you still have bills to pay and if your husband or your partner can’t pay that themselves you still have to go back to work.”

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