Gold Coast Election 2020: ‘Miracle’ needed to change poll outcome

Forty per cent of the vote needs to be counted, but a leading political analyst has revealed why he believes postal and preferential voting won’t change the outcome the council election.

EVEN though 40 per cent of the poll still needs to be counted in some divisions, a leading political analyst believes it would “take a miracle” for postal and preferential voting to change the outcome of the Gold Coast election race.

The final few postal votes are expected in the coming days before preferential votes are counted next week.

Divisions 6 and 10 remain tight. However, political strategist Professor Steve Stockwell did not believe there would be much change to current leader boards as the last votes are counted.

The last postal votes are now being counted. Picture: AAP.

“You can see changes to the voting with time when comparing the postal votes with the on-the-day votes, but that’s a basis of 0.2 or 0.3 of a per cent,” he said.

“Sometimes it shifts but in this election most (candidates) are home on the day. Miracles would have to occur to change the outcomes.

“In (Division 10) you might see a shift but the likelihood of picking up 100 votes if there hasn’t been some sort of upset in the last week is pretty minimal.”

Former Mayor Lex Bell believed postal voters may vote differently to those on polling day

“Anything that happened in the last week doesn’t affect them very much. The postal votes are becoming more important than ever.

Professor Steve Stockwell. Photo: Griffith University

Former Gold Coast Mayor Lex Bell. Picture: Adam Head.

“This time there was a problem because it was very hard to get (on the website) and do so, so there could have been a few people who couldn’t vote who would have been most interested to.”

Asked whether he believed there was a need to push the swearing in of councillors forward amid the ongoing pandemic, he said: “On the Gold Coast it wasn’t pressing (to get a new council elected).

“But in some other places, like Logan and Ipswich, it’s very important to get a new council in. We’ve got to look at the wider picture.

“If it were only Gold Coast, there wouldn’t have been the pressure to hold an election.”

More than 60 per cent of the vote has now been counted in all Gold Coast divisions excluding Division 3, where just 28.64 per cent is accounted for.

Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said the slow wait for results was a common cause of frustration and anxiety among voters at all elections.

“Some voters do not understand that the system we have takes time to count votes, and the major factor causing it to take time is making sure everybody’s voice is heard.”

Brooke Patterson claimed victory Division 6 this week despite less than a quarter of votes being counted at the time. She has 39.15 per cent of the vote. Shaelee Welchman has 26 per cent.

The Electoral Commission of Queensland said it could take upwards of two weeks for all votes to be counted.

It may take more than two weeks for the final vote to come in. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

“For these elections the timeframe may be extended due to the number of postal votes to be returned and the social distancing measures implemented for the count,” a spokeswoman said.

“Local government elections determine the outcomes of the elections of 578 mayors and councillors across 77 councils and involves the counting of over 5 million ballot papers throughout multiple stages of the counting process.

“To date, of the 570,000 postal votes sent out to electors, 314,000 have been returned, scrutinised and either admitted to or rejected from the count.

“Another 4200 of the 5400 postal votes issues for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections have been returned and scrutinised.”