Gold Coast Poll Prediction: What will happen, key issues in State Government 2020 election

The Bulletin today starts its rolling coverage in the lead-up to the State election on October 31 - shaping up to be the Gold Coast's most important ever. These are the big issues that will shape the race.

THE Bulletin today starts its rolling coverage in the lead-up to the State poll on October 31. This is shaping up as the Gold Coast’s most important State election ever.

What the major parties promise will be critical to the city’s economy and jobs as we hopefully move beyond COVID-19 restrictions.

Last State poll — voters at the Pacific Pines State School booth. Picture: Jerad Williams.

Several political scenarios could play out.

Labor could retain government but lose its only seat held by Gaven MP Meaghan Scanlon.

Political insiders say this outcome would test the resolve of the next Palaszczuk Government, under extreme budget pressure.

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The State’s debt will increase past $100 billion next year as revenues wind back and the budget heads towards a $8.4 billion deficit.

The Pacific Pines State School voting booth. Picture: Jerad Williams.

If Labor wins, what motivation under tight spending would there be for Gold Coast projects if their only MP was snubbed by voters?

A Labor insider said: “I think Scanlon has to stay if Labor is to win (the State poll). It’s one of those crucial seats around the State.”

But what if Ms Scanlon retained her seat and the LNP under Deb Frecklington won?

The LNP is running a strong law and order campaign. As more people are unemployed, as crime increases and police attend the border, this will capture swinging voters.

The party is also offering a strong reform package on social issues with Mudgeeraba MP and spokesperson for women Ros Bates exposing the cracks in the Child Safety department.

Meaghan Scanlon MP. Photo Scott Powick Newscorp.

Ms Frecklington has been on the ground promising a new school between Mudgeeraba and Gaven, and a masterplan to determine a much-needed health precinct around Coomera.

An LNP source said: “Palaszczuk is hiding behind the virus. They haven’t got any money to fund promises.”

Labor is questioning the LNP funding commitments. “Look at what the LNP has invested in the Coast," the source said. “Labor sees the Gold Coast as marginal. The LNP doesn’t see it that way.”

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The question is how much motivation will there be for the LNP, in government and facing the same budget restrictions, to keep investing in the Glitter Strip given most of its MPs are safe?

The political motivation will be, if they remove Ms Scanlon, to stop the ALP gaining a foothold here again on the Coast.

Much of its focus will be protecting rookie MP Laura Gerber in Currumbin who is building a strong profile since winning the by-election in March after the retirement of veteran MP Jann Stuckey.

LNP Leader Deb Frecklington and LNP Member for Currumbin Laura Gerber. Picture: Lawrence Pinder

The daily border chaos plays into the LNP’s hands in the southern seat.

Much of the spotlight in this campaign will be on the city’s fast-growing northern suburbs.

Labor wants to establish a base there, the suburbs of Coomera and Pimpama need schools and transport links. Key issues will be a starting date for the Coomera Connector, the Pimpama railway station and a potential new M1 overpass.

So are the political parties travelling with voters?

Polling last month revealed Annastacia Palaszczuk could lose despite her strong public profile during the coronavirus pandemic.

Labor’s vote was at 32 per cent, down from 35 per cent at the 2017 State election. The LNP vote has increased to 38 per cent. Support for One Nation was down from 15 per cent to 12 per cent.