Every GFNL club’s run home predicted as thrilling finals race awaits
The Geelong league finals race is heating up, and last year’s premier may be the hard luck story of 2025. We have gone through every game to see where every club could finish.
News
Don't miss out on the headlines from News. Followed categories will be added to My News.
The Geelong league has been plagued by uneven results but seven teams remain in the hunt for the top-five in a tight finals race.
Newtown & Chilwell and Colac have returned to the top-five after missing last season, while back-to-back premiers Leopold find themselves in seventh position and are in danger of being the hard luck story of 2025.
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE THE FULL PREDICTED LADDER
We have gone through every game to predict the ladder — and there are some big surprises.
See every club’s run home and the full predicted ladder below.
1. St Joseph’s (11-1, 197.7%)
R12: St Mary’s (H) – W
R13: Colac (A) – W
R14: Leopold (H) – W
R15: Bye
R16: Lara (A) – W
R17: St Albans (H) – W
R18: Geelong West (H) – W
Predicted finish: 1st (17-1)
The Joeys have a tough next three weeks to navigate but unless they lose all three – an extremely unlikely event given they have lost three games since the start of 2024 – they will secure back-to-back minor premierships. Colac and Leopold won’t be easy, but the last month of the season should be smooth sailing for the Joeys
2. Newtown & Chilwell (9-3, 148.2%)
R12: North Shore (A) – W
R13: Grovedale (H) – W
R14: South Barwon (H) – L
R15: Bye
R16: St Albans (A) – W
R17: Lara (A) – W
R18: St Mary’s (H) – L
Predicted finish: 4th (13-5)
Newtown & Chilwell has been the surprise packet of the season under Steve Johnson, and the Eagles are in the box seat to return to the finals. They have the opportunity to earn a double chance if they can overcome South Barwon or St Mary’s in the run home. The Eagles have two percentage boosters to come in North Shore this week and Lara in the penultimate round, and every goal will count with their lower percentage compared to other top-five contenders. It might end up being the difference between a qualifying and an elimination final.
3. St Mary’s (8-3, 222.5%)
R12: St Joseph’s (A) – L
R13: Lara (H) – W
R14: Bell Park (A) – W
R15: Grovedale (A) – W
R16: South Barwon (H) – W
R17: Geelong West (A) – W
R18: Newtown & Chilwell (A) – W
Predicted finish: 2nd (14-4)
The Saints may only drop one more game for the remainder of the season. St Mary’s came close to breaking the Joeys’ home-and-away streak in an enthralling encounter earlier in the season, but knocking them off at home will be more difficult. The Saints will also be tested by clashes with finals aspirants Bell Park, South Barwon and Newtown & Chilwell in the run home, but they should enter all three as favourites. If they drop one or more, it could cost them a double chance.
4. Colac (8-3, 214.35%)
R12: St Albans (A) – W
R13: St Joseph’s (H) – L
R14: Lara (A) – W
R15: Bell Park (H) – W
R16: Geelong West (H) – W
R17: South Barwon (A) – L
R18: Grovedale (A) – W
Predicted finish: 3rd (13-5)
After missing the finals last year, Colac should return to the top-five this year with a great draw to finish the season. Colac already boasts a percentage of above 200 and faces St Albans, Lara and Grovedale in the run home. St Joseph’s and South Barwon will present challenges but if they can knock off Bell Park for the second time this season, it should edge them closer to a double chance.
5. South Barwon (7-4, 198.8%)
R12: Leopold (A) – L
R13: Bell Park (H) – W
R14: Newtown & Chilwell (A) – W
R15: North Shore (H) – W
R16: St Mary’s (A) – L
R17: Colac (H) – W
R18: St Albans (H) – W
Predicted finish: 5th (12-6)
South Barwon will certainly earn its spot in the finals, facing a handful of top-five contenders in the run home. The Swans have lost eight consecutive games to Leopold, but they are getting the Lions at the right time this week given the reigning premier’s recent slump. The Swans have made a habit of going on barnstorming runs late in the season and it would be no surprise to see them do it again in 2025.
6. Bell Park (7-4, 168.4%)
R12: Geelong West (A) – W
R13: South Barwon (A) – L
R14: St Mary’s (H) – L
R15: Colac (H) – L
R16: North Shore (A) – W
R17: Grovedale (H) – W
R18: Leopold (H) – W
Predicted finish: 7th (11-7)
Bell Park’s clash with Leopold in the last home-and-away round could decide both sides’ finals fate. The Dragons have a challenging three-week stretch of South Barwon, St Mary’s and Colac after Geelong West this weekend and an upset win over one or more of those sides will go a long way to securing a finals berth.
7. Leopold (6-5, 163.7%)
R12: South Barwon (H) – W
R13: Geelong West Giants (H) – W
R14: St Joseph’s (A) – L
R15: Lara (H) – W
R16: Grovedale (A) – W
R17: North Shore (H) – W
R18: Bell Park (A) – L
Predicted finish: 6th (11-7)
The back-to-back premiers are in danger of missing the finals in their first season under new coach Luke Kelly. A loss to South Barwon this week, who the Lions have won eight in a row against, would be a hammer blow to their finals hopes. It would likely leave them relying on other results to go their way. Leopold has the opportunity to boost its percentage with Lara and North Shore awaiting them, and its date with Bell Park in round 18 may be the difference between finals and September holidays.
8. St Albans (4-7, 104.9%)
R12: Colac Tigers (H) – L
R13: North Shore (A) – W
R14: Grovedale (H) – W
R15: Geelong West Giants (H) – L
R16: Newtown & Chilwell (H) – L
R17: St Joseph’s (A) – L
R18: South Barwon (A) – L
Predicted finish: 8th (6-12)
A match-up with Lara was a 50-50 proposition last year but the Supersaints showed their dramatic improvement with a 151-point win last weekend. If they are at their best, they can finish with seven wins for the year with North Shore, Grovedale and Geelong West to come in successive weeks after Colac. They can lose to the Giants and still finish eighth with their superior percentage.
9. Geelong West Giants (4-7, 84.2%)
R12: Bell Park (H) – L
R13: Leopold (A) – L
R14: North Shore (H) – W
R15: St Albans (A) – W
R16: Colac Tigers (A) – L
R17: St Mary’s (H) – L
R18: St Joseph’s (A) – L
Predicted finish: 9th (6-12)
St Albans jumped ahead of Geelong West after its big win last weekend and a Giants triumph over the Supersaints in round 15 may not be enough to reclaim eighth position. The Giants are now 20 per cent behind the Supersaints and both teams face North Shore in the run home.
10. Grovedale (2-9, 81.5%)
R12: Lara (H) – W
R13: Newtown & Chilwell (A) – L
R14: St Albans (A) – L
R15: St Mary’s (H) – L
R16: Leopold (H) – L
R17: Bell Park (A) – L
R18: Colac Tigers (H) – L
Predicted finish: 10th (3-15)
Grovedale finished last season with five wins in its last nine games, but the Tigers have a much tougher run to close out 2025. Grovedale came within 10 points of Bell Park and Leopold earlier in the season so there is some hope they can pull off an upset in their last seven games. The Tigers should easily account Lara this weekend and St Albans a fortnight later is a winnable fixture.
11. North Shore (1-10, 11.8%)
R12: Newtown & Chilwell (H) – L
R13: St Albans (H) – L
R14: Geelong West Giants (A) – L
R15: South Barwon (A) – L
R16: Bell Park (H) – L
R17: Leopold (A) – L
R18: Lara (H) – W
Predicted finish: 11th (2-16)
Many expected North Shore to through the entire season without a win and while the club has copped some almighty thrashings, they managed to overcome Lara. The Seagulls can double their win count in their return clash against the Cats at home, and at this stage they would go in favourites.
12. Lara (0-11, 15.3%)
R12: Grovedale (A) – L
R13: St Mary’s (A) – L
R14: Colac Tigers (H) – L
R15: Leopold (A) – L
R16: St Joseph’s (H) – L
R17: Newtown & Chilwell (H) – L
R18: North Shore (A) – L
Predicted finish: 12th (0-18)
It had been the season from hell for Lara, and now the Cats will be without its best player Darby Henderson for at least the next two weeks after another concussion. Its clash with North Shore is its only realistic chance of ending its winless drought, and the Seagulls got the points in their last encounter.
Originally published as Every GFNL club’s run home predicted as thrilling finals race awaits
Owners of derelict Charlemont house ignore demolition order
Residents living in an up-and-coming estate are frustrated that a derelict Charlemont mansion, due to be demolished, continues to pose significant safety risks.
Aaron Turner’s Geelong restaurant Songbird to close after less than two years
Songbird, the northern Thai barbecue restaurant co-owned by acclaimed chef Aaron Turner, will close in December after less than two years of operation.