Gold Coast State poll battleground shows three key seats
ON the Gold Coast the fiercest political battles in the State poll will be in three seats — Bonney and Gaven in the north and Currumbin on the southern border.
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ON the Gold Coast the fiercest political battles in the State poll will be in three seats — Bonney and Gaven in the north and Currumbin on the southern border.
For Labor, the odds of winning are best in the new seat of Bonney which includes Labrador, Parkwood and Arundel.
The LNP’s chances of losing a sitting member is highest at neighbouring Gaven where its MP Sid Cramp will face a union-backed campaign.
After interviews with MPs, candidates and assessments of electoral boundary changes, the Bulletin produces the 2017 State poll punter’s guide.
COOMERA — LNP.
The Gold Coast’s fastest growing electorate has undergone the biggest boundary changes.
LNP MP Michael Crandon currently looks after the Coast’s northern end on the eastern side of the Pacific Motorway.
The new boundaries split the electorate 50-50 across east and west of the highway and capture the growth areas of Pimpama and Upper Coomera.
The new Coomera seat runs from Alberton in the north to Wongawallen in the south, and loses the waterfront wealth of Hope Island, which will hurt the LNP.
Mr Crandon’s margin has gone from 8.5 per cent to 5.8 per cent.
The ALP in late July endorsed 55-year-old nurse Christopher Johnson. He has lived in Upper Coomera for 14 years.
Mr Johnson works at the mental health acute care team at the Gold Coast University Hospital, and his campaign has focused on the cuts by the former Newman Government on frontline health services.
Labor was confident of winning Coomera in 2009 but Mr Crandon, a successful businessman, ran a grassroots campaign.
The key issue here is infrastructure deficit. Mr Crandon is constantly tabling petitions in the parliament seeking more carparking around train stations and upgraded schools.
Exits 41, 45 and 49 on the Pacific Motorway require upgrading, more police are needed on the beat and electricity costs continue impact on young families.
What will be interesting about the campaign here is the promises made by the LNP if it secures government.
THEODORE — LNP
This is a new seat in the city’s north which political analysts believe favours the LNP by a margin of 5.3 per cent.
Albert MP Mark Boothman, who had a margin of 1.6 per cent after the 2015 poll, spent the last few months doorknocking residents and letter box dropping potential new constituents.
He has lost half of Helensvale and gained LNP friendly rural areas like Maudsland, Guanaba, Clagiraba and Wongawallen.
The standout issue is the state of the Pacific Motorway.
“The congestion on the M1 is doing people’s heads in. Every time I’ve talked to people about a second M1, they’ve jumped at it (the idea). I’ve virtually had no-one say no to it,” Mr Boothman said.
One Nation has endorsed businessman Darrell Lane, a northern Coast resident for the past decade. His background is in wholesale and retailing.
Mr Boothman has been standing on the footpaths of major intersections, visiting sporting groups. Labor is yet to endorse a candidate.
GAVEN — KEY BATTLE
SID Cramp became the LNP MP for the northern Coast seat in 2015 after a nail biting victory against Labor warhorse Michael Riordan, winning by 912 votes.
Mr Riordan wanted a second shot but in May this year lost a preselection battle and the blood letting caused some scars in the local ALP branches.
Young Labor lawyer Meaghan Scanlon, who works for local-based Senator Murray Watt, won having gained the support of the United Voice union.
Gaven will be the centrepiece for Labor’s Coast campaign. Every media opportunity with Ministers is likely to feature Ms Scanlon.
Can she win and become the ALP’s first Coast MP? The margin favours the LNP by 2.8 per cent, up from 2.2 per cent after the last poll.
The new boundaries see the seat more streamlined, from Pacific Pines in the north to Highland Park but importantly includes the luxury waterfront Emerald Lakes where the LNP won every booth last time.
Mr Cramp has doorknocked the Nerang river front caravan parks where voters would lean towards Labor.
Their major concerns apart from the congestion on the M1 and crime is how to pay the power bills.
“I virtually have people in my electorate living by candle light,” he said yesterday.
Ms Scanlon has been out on street corners with her supporters in Pacific Pines and staged community meetings about the failure of the NBN rollout.
Former independent MP Dr Alex Douglas polled almost 13 per cent of the vote in 2015 and the Palmer United Party received nine per cent.
The unknown factor is which candidate will benefit from that large chunk of protest vote.
BROADWATER — LNP
Former Newman Government Minister David Crisafulli beat the sitting LNP MP Verity Barton in a much publicised preselection battle in May.
His campaign until last week has arguably been the most professional so far, pushing for more cops at the Runaway Bay police station and upgraded school facilities at Coombabah Primary School.
But Commonwealth Games Minister Kate Jones stung him in State Parliament when she revealed he had bailed on a hospitality company before liquidators were appointed.
Mr Crisafulli maintains he had attempted to help the company and was a creditor but his rivals like One Nation’s Brendan Ball have a spring in their step.
The boundary changes have improved the seat for the LNP from a 7.2 per cent margin to 16.3 per cent, largely due to the inclusion of Hope Island waterfront property owners.
Mr Ball began doorknocking almost a year ago. The Greens candidate Daniel Kwon works with the unemployed and has run for political office before.
Broadwater always guarantees the most robust community debates courtesy of the meet the candidate meetings hosted by Paradise Point Progress Association.
Mr Ball is promising to fix car parking issues and duplicate the bridge at Jabiru Island which connects the beachside with the M1.
“We need more police resources on the Broadwater. It’s an electorate of islands,” he said.
Mr Crisafulli is the short-priced favourite and if elected will change the LNP leadership base on the Glitter Strip.
BONNEY — KEY BATTLE
The new Coast seat of Bonney is regarded as favouring the LNP by a 2.2 per cent margin.
But the electorate includes the battler’s Broadwater playground of Labrador and family friendly suburbs of Arundel and Parkwood.
Labor has preselected Rowan Holzberger who with limited party resources almost beat Southport’s Rob Molhoek in the 2015 campaign.
The LNP has young gun Sam O’Connor who left his media gig with Fadden MP Stuart Robert. He is pouring beers at a local club in between doorknocking.
This is the Coast’s biggest and potentially most explosive campaign battle.
Volatile independent Ron Nightingale has pumped out press releases every day. “The battle for Bonney has become a decision by voters on whether they want the age and experience of a conservative independent or the youth of the major parties,” he wrote yesterday.
A Reachtel poll conducted for the Bulletin in August revealed the LNP was ahead with 40.6 per cent of the vote with Labor trailing on 31.8 per cent.
Independents were expected to pick up 2.8 per cent of the vote while almost nine per cent of residents remain undecided.
Mr O’Connor maintains voters are concerned about three issues — crime, congestion and cost of living.
Mr Holzberger can enjoy having the Commonwealth Games Village in the heart of his electorate along with light rail stage two.
The winner might determine whether Queensland has a majority government.
SOUTHPORT — LNP
THE LNP’s Rob Molhoek is more comfortable than during the last campaign.
Boundary changes have increased his margin from 3.2 per cent to 7.8 per cent after he lost Parkwood, Arundel and Labrador to Bonney.
The southern tip of the new electorate includes Benowa and the exclusive properties along the Nerang River and up-market Bundall.
Mr Molhoek is not aware of any candidate standing against him.
“I keep calling up the Labor Party website and it comes up with Senator Murray Watt,” he said.
His feedback from residents suggests family safety is an important issue with many concerned about the rise in domestic violence.
“For me, I have a lot of growth pressures to manage because of infill development. Once the Commonwealth Games Village becomes residential after the Games, it will put pressure on the local schools,” he said.
SURFERS PARADISE — LNP
Surfers Paradise should be a walk on the beach for LNP frontbencher and long term MP John-Paul Langbroek except a poll always puts the focus back on the future of The Spit.
Under the new boundaries, the seat picks up the canal homes at Clear Island Waters and Broadbeach Waters which boosts the LNP’s margin from 19.2 per cent to 20.4 per cent.
Labor is yet to preselect a candidate and usually picks a young member to give them their campaign training wheels.
What almost certainly will occur is a public meeting where the Opposition and the Government must provide their future narrative for the Broadwater.
Will Labor support giving up Crown land at Philip Park at The Spit for Mayor Tom Tate’s cruise ship terminal? Does the LNP support three-level height limits in Main Beach?
These are the sort of issues where the answers can hurt both parties across other electorates.
MERMAID BEACH — LNP
Veteran LNP MP Ray Stevens has ruled over Robina since 2006 in an electorate which includes canal homes and rich beachfront property owners.
Only minor boundary changes have occurred causing his margin to drop slightly from 12.9 per cent to 10.3 per cent.
Mr Stevens has issued a glossy election pamphlet which shows his supporters include former copper Jim Keogh, charity worker Nic Rone and resident group spokesman Alf Volker.
As he campaigns on law and order issues, the experienced MP is yet to spot an opponent.
“The bikies are not wearing their colours but they’re still coming back. We are also seeing massage parlours associated with crime,” he said.
MUDGEERABA — LNP
Mudgeeraba has had few changes to its boundaries and the sitting member Ros Bates remains one of the Opposition’s most vocal frontbenchers.
Asked when she had begun campaigning for this campaign, she replied: “I have never stopped campaigning”.
The only political gunfire on the horizon will be from One Nation candidate Andrew Liddell. He has served more than two decades in the army reserve.
Given the few changes to the electoral map for the hinterland seat, the margin for the LNP has only be slightly reduced from 11 per cent to 10.4 per cent.
BURLEIGH — LNP
Labor is missing out on an opportunity here.
Minor changes to boundaries sees Burleigh lose Miami in the north and gain more of Palm Beach which helps the ALP vote.
The LNP’s Michael Hart has had his margin reduced from 6.2 per cent to 5.5 per cent.
This seat was once held by Labor’s Christine Smith and should have been a priority for the ALP on gaining a new representative on the Glitter Strip.
A preselection battle is looming for the ALP giving Mr Hart, the Opposition energy spokesman who travels across the State, valuable extra time to focus on his constituents.
He has been outspoken about clamping down on bikies who had clubhouses in his patch and remains opposed to further stages of light rail through Burleigh, both issues winners with the electorate.
CURRUMBIN — LNP
LNP veteran MP Jann Stuckey has lost Palm Beach and retained Currumbin, Tugun, Bilinga and Coolangatta which helps her position.
The margin for the LNP in the Coast’s most southern seat increases from 5.2 to 5.7 per cent.
But Ms Stuckey faces possibly her toughest campaign yet with outspoken conservative independent Andy Semple determined to target her performance in the electorate.
Her major opponent will be Labor’s Georgi Leader, a financial planner and young mother, who has a billboard up at the electorate’s major intersection.
Ms Stuckey’s big focus has been on policing and the need to get more cops at schools to reduce youth crime.
Ms Leader is campaigning on the extension of light rail, saying only Labor can get the tram to the border.
The Currumbin MP was away from a recent sitting of Parliament due to an illness but has returned determined to hold her seat.
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