One Nation slated to haunt the Gold Coast poll

LIKE them or hate them, One Nation could be the key to whether Labor or the LNP wins the two marginal Gold Coast seats of Bonney and Gaven.

Pauline Hanson (right), leader of the One Nation party with Brenden Ball. Photo: Regi Varghese

ONE Nation is in the driver’s seat to determine whether Labor or the LNP wins the two marginal Gold Coast seats of Bonney and Gaven.

Pauline Hanson’s party can deliver the numbers for either of the major parties without even standing a candidate.

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The mystery for the Labor and LNP campaign teams is how much support they will get from the One Nation protest vote.

The most recent Reachtel poll conducted for the Bulletin showed One Nation was polling 12.8 per cent in Bonney and 15 per cent in Gaven.

The party has only endorsed Brenden Ball in Broadwater, Ronald Pigdon in Coomera, Darrell Lane in Theodore and Andrew Liddell in Mudgeeraba.

One Nation's Broadwater candidate Brenden Ball is one of four party representatives in 11 Coast seats. Picture Glenn Hampson

One Nation leader Steve Dickson told the Bulletin it was impossible to say how many of the remaining seven Coast seats would have candidates.

Despite fielding numerous requests, One Nation party officials may run out of time to assess potential Coast candidates. The cut-off time is midday on November 7.

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“There are some people who won’t make the deadline. We can’t afford to get dud candidates,” Mr Dickson said.

An LNP strategist told the Bulletin: “It’s a bit of an unknown what (One Nation voters) will do if they don’t have a candidate to vote for. If they are unhappy with a left wing Labor Government, by default they would vote for the LNP.”

Sid Cramp, pictured with Ariana Cramp (7 months), son Luca Cramp (9), Isabella Cramp, (12) and his wife Danielle Cramp on being elected to Parliament. His survival in Gaven could be determined by One Nation supporters.

Using preference flows from previous elections as a guide, the breakdown of support from One Nation voters can be as high as 75 per cent for the LNP and 25 per cent for Labor.

The only accurate guide for Coast seats are the results for Fadden during the federal election in July last year.

Mr Ball, who staged a strong grassroots campaign, secured almost 12 per cent of the vote, trailing LNP MP Stuart Robert (49 per cent) and Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon (26 per cent).

After preferences from Mr Ball’s vote was counted, 53.16 per cent went to Mr Robert and 46.84 per cent to Labor.

The fate of Labor candidate Meaghan Scanlon in Gaven could be determined by the One Nation vote despite the party not running a candidate. Pic by Luke Marsden.

“Higher flows are expected this time to the LNP because we are not in government,” the LNP source said.

“Some published polls have shown that too. We’re still very much pushing to get first preference though, especially if there’s no One Nation candidate.”

Asked what advice One Nation would give to its supporters on preferences, Mr Dickson said he wished the voting system had not changed and just one vote was allocated.

Mr Ball believes One Nation voters in Coast electorates without a candidate would choose an independent candidate rather than vote for the major parties.

He said private polling by rivals had suggested support in his electorate for One Nation could be as high as 20 per cent.