South Australia’s next Covid wave predicts peak before Christmas, masks recommended

One Australian state’s health chief has made a strong plea for masks at one major event in particular, as Covid cases nearly double in a week.

After weeks of silence, South Australia’s top doctor has made a bold call on masks ahead of the festive season.

SA’s Chief Medical Officer Nicola Spurrier said masks were now encouraged in indoor areas with high volumes of people, amid a spike in Covid-19 cases across the country.

“We probably are about a week or so away from the peak of the wave,” Professor Spurrier said.

“Prior to a wonderful day of Christmas and that festive season, we are well on the way down on the other side of the curve.”

When asked about reintroducing restrictions for South Australia, Professor Spurrier dismissed the idea changes would be made any time soon.

“As you can see it’s not necessary,” she said.

“We have to get used to the fact that this is going to continue to come in waves.

Professor Nicola Spurrier has revealed new Covid modelling. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Tricia Watkinson

South Australia’s chief health officer has asked residents wear masks when shopping on Black Friday. Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

“It is nice to get to this point in the pandemic, where we don’t have a whole lot of rules that the government has put in place, that people are now able to take their own individual responsibility. It makes it a lot more sustainable into the future.”

“This pandemic has thrown curveballs, but I don’t see anything on the horizon at the moment. People know what to do to keep themselves safe.”

Professor Spurrier said the health system is expecting lower hospital admission rates in this current wave, due to the “very well vaccinated community” in South Australia, and the roll out of antivirals.

“If you’re over 70 then you’re absolutely eligible for oral antivirals, it has a significant impact on hospitalisation and also on mortality.”

However, she urged people to consider bringing a mask to them if they’re heading somewhere indoors where distancing isn’t always possible.

“My recommendation is that if you’re in a very crowded indoor place where you cant easily have your own space then that might be the time where you think about wearing a mask.”

Professor Spurrier said Father Christmas might like to try the antiviral medication. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Tricia Watkinson

“This is only for a couple of weeks,” she said.

Professor Spurrier said Black Friday on the 25th will likely see lots of people flock to main shopping strips, but caution needs to be taken to stop unnecessary Covid spread.

“I’m sure Rundle Mall is hoping it will be full of people looking for Christmas gifts as well as taking advantage of sales, so that would be a time I would be saying to people: ‘have your mask in your pocket and pop it on when you're in a crowded space’.”

Professor Spurrier called for people in high risk settings to wear masks. NCA NewsWire / Emma Brasier

She said masks were also now strongly recommended on public transport and in aged care settings, in a bid to stop the spread.

“I don’t know for sure that there might be someone on the bus that might be on chemotherapy or might have other vulnerabilities,” she said.

“It’s time to get those masks out again.”

Health Minister Chris Picton said the health system should cope with the current wave. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Tricia Watkinson

Health Minister Chris Picton said he expected the health system will cope with the current wave.

“South Australians have done an excellent job in terms of getting vaccinated, but there are a number of people who are well due for an additional vaccination and we ask them to come forward, make sure they are fully protected in doing so.”

“We know that this is something that we are going to face in the long term, and we can’t have a situation where we’re going back to 2020 type restrictions. This is something that we have to continue to make sure that our hospital system is robust.”

Testing rates are increasing, but the current wave is expected to reach its peak next week. Picture: Tom Huntley

As for the big man himself, Professor Spurrier said Santa should have no worries ahead of his visit to South Australia.

“I think we should be saying Father Christmas you’re going to be safe coming into our state, we’re a very well vaccinated state, we know what we’re doing here.”

She recommended Santa be fully vaccinated, and have a plan about gaining oral antivirals.

As of last Friday, there were 6,867 new Covid cases in the state, compared to 3,797 the week before – a near doubling of cases in just one week.

In the same time, there were 5,185 active cases in the community, in comparison to 2,852 in the week before.

There have now been over 1000 deaths in South Australia due to the virus, and around 74 per cent of recent testing revealed they were the BA. 5 variant and related variants.

Covid testing numbers are again on the rise, with 19,830 lining up for a PCR test across SA last week, which was a 27 per cent increase on the week before.

Father Christmas is safe to enter SA, according to health leaders. Picture: Tricia Watkinson

While South Australia is bracing for an imminent peak, Western Australia’s chief health officer Andy Robertson told reporters on Tuesday he expected the state’s new wave to peak by early December.

“As it is progressing at the moment, we’re probably looking towards the end of November or early December for a peak,” he said.

“People are obviously worried about Christmas. We think that’s unlikely. It’s probably more likely to be in the early part of December.

Dr Robertson said he would not recommend the return of mandatory mask use at this point, but, like Prof Spurrier, said covering up was heavily encouraged.

“I haven’t recommended the use of mandatory masks but I do still strongly encourage people, if you’re visiting vulnerable friends and family, then you might want to consider wearing a mask, and if you’re in areas where you really can’t socially isolate, public transport for example.”

Australian Medical Association WA president Mark Duncan-Smith and Australia Nursing Federation chief executive Mark Olson previously called for mandatory mask rules if cases spiked.

Premier Mark McGowan has so far refused to reintroduce mandatory masks.

“At this point in time, there’s no need for it,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

”Obviously, you never say never, but I think it is very unlikely.

“If we need to put measures in place, we will. But there’s no need at this point in time.”

Dr Robertson said it would take more severe disease and hospitalisations to review the Covid situation.

On Friday, WA Health reported a total of 8029 new cases for the past week, with 4906 active cases.

There were a total of 176 people with Covid-19 in hospital, including five in intensive care.

Six deaths were also recorded, ranging in age from 77 to 92.

Dr Robertson said on Tuesday that there were now 188 people in hospital.

Originally published as South Australia’s next Covid wave predicts peak before Christmas, masks recommended