Australian Federal election 2025: Climate 200 poll reveals state of McPherson contest on Gold Coast

A poll commissioned by Climate 200 in the southern Gold Coast seat of McPherson has stirred up a dispute between candidates in the blue-ribbon electorate. WHAT IT SAID

A poll commissioned by Climate 200, which is backing independent candidate Erchana Murray-Bartlett, has the marathon runner neck-in-neck with the LNP’s Leon Rebello in the southern Gold Coast seat of McPherson.

However an LNP spokesman said the poll had little weight and claimed releasing positive polls was a “common marketing tactic of the Teals and Greens”.

The poll of 1094 people in the southern Gold Coast electorate was conducted between April 17-22 by Melbourne-based Company UComms, which a 2019 investigation found was co-owned by unions including the ACTU and CFMEU.

In answer to the question “if a federal election were to be held today, who would receive your first preferencevote”, Mr Rebello received 37.9 per cent, followed by Labor on 22.4 and Ms Murray-Bartlett on 15.8 per cent.

Leon Rebello, Angie Bell and Cameron Caldwell Picture, Portia Large.

However, on a two-party preferred basis, Mr Rebello was ahead of Ms Murray Bartlett 51 per cent to 49 per cent.

Ms Murray Bartlett welcomed the result.

“I’ll be working dawn-to-dusk at the pre-poll this week and being out and about,” she said.

“It is coming down to a two-horse race and it makes sense because this is what we are hearing on the ground.

“It is exciting and we can feel it on the ground at the pre-poll because people are looking for an alternative.”

Griffith University associate professor Paul Williams said McPherson, which the LNP won with a 9.3 per cent margin 2022, was set for its most competitive battle in nearly 20 years due to the lack of an incumbent and changing voter demographics.

Federal candidate and ultra-marathon runner Erchana Murray-Bartlett. Picture: Nigel Hallett

However he said the result of the poll was unlikely to be repeated in Saturday’s election.

“I’d be very surprised if it was to be 51/49 on the day and I’d be surprised (if the seat changed hands), but this result would be better than anything the Climate 200 candidates would have imagined,” he said.

“The Gold Coast is not a natural constituency for the teals, it’s not like Melbourne or Sydney, so figures like this would suggest there is something wrong with the LNP brand but I’d be surprised if it happened.

“We all know the potential for teals to disrupt both the primary vote and the preference in formerly safe Liberal seats.”

Mr Rebello was dismissive of the polling, saying he was focused on winning every vote ahead of Saturday’s election.

“I don’t pay much attention to Climate 200’s Melbourne-based pollsters, I’m more interested in listening to the people of McPherson who are telling me time and time again how they’re hurting under Labor’s cost-of-living crisis,” he said.

“So while it’s been great to receive a lot of positive feedback from voters on pre-poll this week, my focus until 3 May remains on running a strong campaign to ensure our community is represented properly in Canberra by an LNP government that will deliver the cost of living relief they need.”

Griffith University’s senior lecturer in politics and journalism Dr Paul Williams

An LNP spokeswoman also said the poll held little weight.

“It’s a common marketing tactic of the Teals and Greens to release positive self-funded polling in the electorates they’re targeting to help build momentum behind their campaign.

“We never take any of the electorates we hold for granted, but they’re up against some of our hardest-working sitting members and candidates – like Leon Rebello – who are well known and well regarded in their communities.”

McPherson has rarely been considered a notable seat at elections, having a solid history of electing conservative candidates dating back to the 1940s.

The last serious challenge mounted by another party was in 2007 when long-serving Gold Coast councillor Eddy Sarroff was tapped by Labor to take on incumbent Margaret May in the seat.

Kevin Rudd with local Councillor Eddy Sarroff in 2007

He was unsuccessful, but reduced Ms May’s margin.

Simon Jackman, an honorary professor at the University of Sydney who previously consulted for Climate 200 at the 2022 election, said it was “not too dissimilar” from that year when so-called “teal” candidates successfully rolled Liberal MPs in blue ribbon seats in NSW, Victoria and Western Australia.

“With the right sequence of preferences, there is a pathway by which a teal could potentially get elected,” he said.

“My Spidey-sense is tingling around McPherson and it will be important for candidates to get their how-to-votes out in a big way at the pre-poll.

“Until Karen Andrews retired it was not on anybody’s list of seats which were in danger but Labor has run dead and that has created the preconditions for a teal win.”