Avatar: The Way Of Water’s near-impossible box office mission

Not that Matt Damon needs the money, but one role he turned down would have netted him close to $US300 million. Yikes.

Not that he’s impoverished and desperately needs it, but Matt Damon would be $US292 million richer today if he hadn’t been so loyal to Jason Bourne.

Damon previously revealed he turned down the lead role in Avatar, and with it, a giant chunk of cash. Of course, even he wouldn’t have known just how much money that was going to be.

He probably didn’t know that 13 years later, Avatar would still be the highest grossing movie of all time, with a box office haul of $US2.92 billion.

Last year, Damon said at the Cannes Film Festival, “I was offered a little movie called Avatar, James Cameron offered me 10 per cent of it. I will go down in history, you will never meet an actor who turned down more money.”

Damon said he turned it down because at the time he was still involved with the Jason Bourne movies and he didn’t want to abandon the franchise – the Avatar offer would have come in around the time production was ramping up for The Bourne Ultimatum.

Matt Damon said he’ll go down in history as the actor who turned down Avatar. Picture: Michael Loccisano/Getty Images

Damon said when he told fellow actor and Bostonian John Krasinski, the A Quiet Place filmmaker was aghast, but then had apparently told Damon: “Nothing would be different in your life if you had done Avatar, except you and me would be having this conversation in space”.

The Damon anecdote points to the unmatched box office power of James Cameron’s epic and the outsized expectations on the sequels. The first of four planned ones, Avatar: The Way Of Water, is released this week.

It’s been 13 years since the first film was released and there’s a legitimate question over whether Avatar: The Way Of Water can come even close to repeating that commercial success.

No matter your feelings on Avatar’s storytelling and characterisation chops, it’s hard to deny the film was a technological and filmmaking feat which pioneered 3D visuals, and impressed mass audiences so much many of them went back for repeat viewings.

Cameron’s ambitious movie drove a wave of 3D releases in the years following but many if not most of them were 2D movies that were retroactively converted to 3D to cash in on the craze.

Sam Worthington took on the role Matt Damon turned down.

The inferior experience of these films – and depending on who you ask, maybe just the gimmick in general – killed off interest in 3D movies not long after. The last big studio blockbuster that tried to capitalise on 3D technology was the first Doctor Strange movie, released in 2016.

So, the lack of appetite for 3D again – an experience characterised by higher ticket prices and uncomfortable glasses – could be a strike against Avatar: The Way Of Water. Especially as most audiences have experienced 3D and decided it wasn’t for them, whereas when Avatar was released, it was mostly a new thing for many.

Cinemas in Australia will be offering Avatar: The Way Of Water in both 2D and 3D sessions – if most audiences decide to see it in 2D, it will significantly dent the movie’s box office potential.

The long running time – three hours and 13 minutes compared to the first movie’s two hours and 42 minutes – means cinemas can run fewer sessions each day. And the length will likely put off at least a few viewers.

Avatar: The Way Of Water will have to make significant money before it’s considered a success, and the future of Cameron’s further three sequels rely on a huge haul.

Matt Damon was offered the lead in Avatar. Picture: 20th Century Fox

The production budget was reportedly between $US350 million and $US400 million and when you factor in marketing costs and more, that’s easily scores of millions more. Traditionally, cinemas take 50 per cent of ticket sales so Avatar: The Way Of Water would need to earn at least double its budget - getting close to $US1 billion - to just break even for the studio.

The expectation for its opening weekend is pegged at between $US450 million to $US550 million. Being one of the even fewer international films allowed to screen in China will give Avatar: The Way of Water a boost denied to its rivals, including this year’s current top grossing film, Top Gun: Maverick, currently sitting at $US1.44 billion.

Even though it’s common to hear refrains of “Another Avatar, geez, who asked for that?” there is definitely an appetite among moviegoers. When Disney re-released Avatar earlier this year, it made another $US76 million, including an opening weekend in Australia of $2 million.

That’s only a drop compared to its overall $US2.92 billion box office, but that’s more money than most movies, including studio releases, clock up on their first and only release.

That re-release and an earlier 2019 re-release in China helped Avatar take back the number one box office position (not adjusted for inflation, the adjusted crown still belongs to Gone With The Wind), which it briefly lost to Avengers: Endgame. It said a lot about Avatar’s staying power.

And cinema culture has changed enormously in the time since its original release to an environment where audiences generally only turn out for an “event” movie, preferring to watch mid-range dramas, action thrillers and comedies at home on streaming.

For some, Avatar: The Way Of Water may be the only movie they go to a physical cinema for this year.

Avatar: The Way Of Water is the first of four planned sequels. Picture: 20th Century Fox

But Cameron is aware that not everyone loves Avatar and there are doubters out there. He told The Hollywood Reporter, “There’s scepticism in the marketplace around, ‘Oh, did it ever make any real cultural impact?’ or ‘Can anyone even remember the characters’ names?’

“If people are less likely to remember Jake Sully than, say, Luke Skywalker, that’s partly because Avatar is only one movie into its mythology. When you have extraordinary success, you come back within the next three years.

“That’s just how the industry works. You come back to the well, and you build that cultural impact over time. Marvel had maybe 26 movies to build out a universe, with the characters cross-pollinating. So, it’s an irrelevant argument. We’ll see what happens after the film.”

If Avatar: The Way Of Water underperforms – and success is a very high bar – then the future of the franchise is at risk.

Cameron has already filmed Avatar 3 and some of Avatar 4, and he has a script for Avatar 5. Even with footage in the can, so much of Avatar’s production happens in post – Avatar: The Way Of Water has 3350 visual effects shots – so there’s still a lot of money that needs to be spent.

It’s going to have to make enormous buck to justify that cost.

Avatar: The Way of Water is in cinemas now

Originally published as Avatar: The Way Of Water’s near-impossible box office mission