Proof of how Queensland can reach a Covid victory

Australia has emerged as the real-world example of living with Covid - and Queensland has some major advantages in stopping the spread.

Victoria has emerged as the real-world example of living with Covid with a drop in hospitalisations despite high case numbers.

Just one fifth of Covid patients in the state’s hospitals are vaccinated, with more than 80 per cent requiring treatment unvaccinated.

Hospitalisation rates for Covid-19 in Victoria have more than halved in a month, despite the state dropping almost all lockdown restrictions.

There were 851 people in hospital with Covid in Victoria on October 18 and on Tuesday it was just 303.

Of those 97 in intensive care, including those who have recovered from Covid-19 but still need ongoing treatment.

Professor Tony Blakely says Australia has to live with Covid-19. Picture: Alex Coppel

That’s an overall drop of more than 64 per cent, as the state hits a sweet spot of high vaccination, strong immunity and warmer weather which has reduced cases across the globe.

Of those in hospital in Victoria on Tuesday, 77 per cent were not fully vaccinated – and 80 per cent of those in intensive care were not vaccinated.

Victorians aged 12 and over are 89.3 per cent fully vaccinated, with more than 93.5 per cent having one dose.

The state has continued to record the most Covid cases in the country with 827 in the community yesterday and on October 18 there were 1903 new local cases.

Leading epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely said Australia has no choice but to live with COVID-19, as Victoria becomes the testing ground of how to reopen with high case numbers.

Victoria had its “freedom day” last week even though it recorded 1,160 coronavirus cases on the same day.

Epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely. Picture: Alex Coppel.

During Melbourne’s lockdown the case numbers were a daily marker of the mood – with case numbers of more than 10 flattening the mood of the city.

But Premier Daniel Andrews, who had enforced the world’s longest lockdown on Melbourne, dropped his ambition for zero Covid-19 cases as vaccination rates improved.

Professor Blakely, of the University of Melbourne, said Victoria was in a sweet spot of high vaccination rates and immunity, but that was likely to wane as winter approached next year.

Queensland has a natural advantage because of it’s warmer weather and larger homes, which reduces the spread of Covid, Mr Blakely added.

“If people in Queensland are having parties outside on their verandas then that bodes well for them,” he said.

“We just have to brace ourselves for winter when everyone goes indoors (in Victoria).”

He said it was unclear if warmer weather reduced the spread of the virus, or if people spending more time outdoors contained outbreaks because Covid-19 spreads faster in confined spaces.

Either way, based on world evidence and the falling cases in Victoria and New South Wales, he said summer was a limiting factor on Covid-19.

Queensland’s larger houses and outdoor lifestyle provide better backdrops to stop Covid-19 from spreading.

There were 827 cases in Victoria on Tuesday, and sadly, 19 people died with the illness.

Of those who died, only two were fully vaccinated.

The cases in Victoria are now overwhelmingly among younger, unvaccinated people, who generally do not need hospital treatment.

Britain’s Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health had “made clear” that “the overwhelming majority of children and young people still have no symptoms or very mild illness only.”

Australian Federal Health Department figures provided to the Courier Mail show that only 2.5 per cent of children who contracted Covid-19 attended hospital.

However, the Health Department cautioned that of those who were taken to hospital, some went only because they could not be looked after at home because their parents were sick.

Dr Nick Coatsworth, a former deputy chief medical officer who was the face of the Federal Government’s coronavirus advertising campaign, was critical of the Victorian Government’s approach.

He said the Victorian Government could have opened schools earlier than it did.

“No, it’s not a fair system, Victoria is taking an overly cautious approach,” he said.

“A study in the Journal Nature found there was no supporting evidence for shutting schools, based on research in late 2020.”

Prof Blakely said cases would be suppressed if primary school aged children were given the green light to get vaccinated in January.

Booster shots would be required at Easter to prevent another outbreak next winter, he added.

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Originally published as Proof of how Queensland can reach a Covid victory