Covid-19: What we can expect of the virus in 2022
From new variants to the prospect of border closures and new business norms, experts have revealed what they think is coming as Omicron spreads.
Coronavirus
Don't miss out on the headlines from Coronavirus. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Forecasting Covid-19 has to date proved to be a foolish endeavour, but as the virus moves into its fourth calendar year, experts believe Australia is in a strong position to manage the pandemic in 2022.
“I’m feeling very optimistic about where Australia will sit in 2022,” Professor Sharon Lewin recently told a Doherty Institute podcast. “We have close to the highest number of people vaccinated, and recently vaccinated, and we’re in a good position for rolling out boosters.”
While public health measures were here to stay, and new variants would provide challenges, Prof Lewin said she was hopeful two of the pandemic’s toughest conditions – lockdowns and border closures – would not be a fact of life in 2022.
Here’s what we might see from the virus next year.
A MORE NORMAL SCHOOL YEAR
With the vaccination of 5-11-year-olds starting on January 10, and decent rates of coverage for teenagers (currently around 75 per cent are double-dosed), a less disrupted school year is anticipated in 2022.
Infectious diseases expert Professor Peter Collignon from the ANU said the situation where an entire class gets sent home when there is a positive Covid-19 case should not recur in 2022.
“With high levels of vaccination among children, we need to actually really look at how we define close contacts,” he said. “It may be not the whole class [gets sent home] but the two or three children the [infected] child played with,” he said.
THE TUESDAY — THURSDAY CBD WEEK
Business expert Peter Switzer said rates of traffic congestion showed a majority of workers were already showing a clear preference for working from home on Mondays and Fridays, and in the city Tuesday through Thursday.
Companies would still probably play it safe by sending workers home if a staff member tests positive, he said.
“We have a policy that you have to tell us that you’ve had a positive test and we then send everyone home and instruct them to get tested. It’s not just a health of employee matter but could affect customers and the company’s brand,” Mr Switzer said.
MASKS AND CHECK-INS
While some states have already moved away from mask mandates and check-ins, experts said we should expect public health measures to be dialled up and down in 2022.
“It’s not that we won’t have restrictions, but it will be different to a year ago,” said Prof Collignon. “You’ve got to have restrictions that are commensurate with the risk.”
While daily case numbers would continue to be important, the focus would turn to hospitalisation rates as a trigger for tougher measures, he said.
“We’ll still have some restrictions, particularly in winter if hospitalisations are just going up and up. I don’t think that means lockdowns, but you may be limited to five people coming in to your house for instance, or bars are going to have the 4 sq metre rule again.”
‘Super-spreader’ venues such as gyms and nightclubs could also be closed again if numbers get out of control, Prof Collignon said.
TRAVEL AND BORDERS
While the federal government is expected to keep Australia’s border open during 2022, politics expert Dr Paul Williams from Griffith University said there was no guarantee premiers wouldn’t shut borders again.
“The premiers are emboldened and empowered,” he said. “Politically and constitutionally they’ve been strengthened. Politically because they’ve been elevated to the national cabinet, and constitutionally the states have [repelled] Clive Palmer and other people’s challenges to the validity of closing borders.”
THE BIG PICTURE
Two things look inevitable in the global fight against Covid-19 in 2022: more variants and the USA will mark one million deaths from the virus.
More data on the seasonality of the virus is also expected to help countries prepare for future waves of infection.
“If we look at the US, Canada and Europe, that will give us some expectation what we can expect next July/August,” said Prof Collignon.
“For the moment my feeling is cases will go up a bit more over the next few weeks, as people have Christmas gatherings, but from the second week of January, they’ll level off and go down slowly to about May, and then start picking up again,” he said.
More Coverage
Originally published as Covid-19: What we can expect of the virus in 2022
Join the conversation
State’s big move on cutting-edge vaccines
One Aussie state has revealed its next move on a major vaccine development project – which promises to change the way it responds to future health challenges.
Read more
$1.1m plan to overhaul Long Covid, chronic fatigue care
Guidelines to treat the 750,000-plus Australians who have Long Covid and chronic fatigue syndrome are more than two decades old. See the plan to fix them.
Read more