Stephen Gorenstein: How copper and critical minerals could become the themes of 2025

After lithium in 2022, uranium in 2023 and gold in 2024, Ari Fund portfolio manager Stephen Gorenstein says copper could be 2025’s theme.

Stephen Gorenstein is looking to pick the next theme before it becomes obvious. Pic: Supplied/Stockhead

A veteran analyst with big ticket roles at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America and experience running business development across some of Australia’s largest gold miners including Newcrest and St Barbara, Stephen Gorenstein’s deep mining experience has underpinned his work at the helm of the Melbourne-based Ari Fund.

Now, he’s sharing his expertise with Stockhead readers to shine a light on where value can be found in ASX resources.

While it's easy to follow the herd, it pays to read the tea leaves and get a grip early on what the key investing theme could be in any given year.

If 2022 was the year of lithium, then in 2023 uranium proved the commodity that ruled the roost.

Gold took the crown with little competition in 2024 and consensus has it perched at the top of the resources leaderboard in 2025 as well.

But bull markets don't run forever, and while we may not have seen the last of the yellow metal – robust central bank buying has dramatically altered fundamentals dominated for years by an inverse relationship to the US dollar – fund managers are curious about where the next bull cycle will emerge.

Ari Fund's Stephen Gorenstein has done well out of the gold boom. But now he's considering where those profits are best placed next.

"I was a gold analyst on the sell side for 20 odd years and every single time I would find the generalists getting very excited about gold ... asking me to look down the list and find the really risky gold stocks, that was always a time gold will take a fall," he mused.

"We've started selling a few of our bigger names. We still like them a lot, we think the thematic for gold, the fundamentals for gold are still incredible strong.

"Those things all point to a positive view going forward and we share that view, but we do think maybe things have run a bit too hard. Our key picks remain Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS), Predictive Discovery (ASX:PDI), Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) and Meeka Metals (ASX:MEK), but we have started taking a bit of profit on some of them."

On Gorenstein's radar are copper, and more speculatively, critical minerals like antimony and tungsten.

"We're doing a lot of work around the copper space and we think maybe this year is a year copper actually does what everyone's been saying it's going to do for some time," he said.

Where we're heading

What is subject to debate around copper, at least as far as bulls are concerned, is not whether it will move but when and by how much.

"There's such a fundamental medium to long-term shortage of copper," Gorenstein said.

"When we say copper prices are going up we're not talking about US$4/lb to US$5/lb – we're not talking a 20-25% increase – we actually think it could go up quite significantly.

"If this is the year that starts to play out, that would be one we are positioned for and we'll continue to buy into."

While Gorenstein and his colleagues at Ari are less advanced in their work on this theme, the others they see as a potential candidate for a 2025 breakout are critical minerals antimony and tungsten.

Antimony burst into public consciousness last year thanks to Chinese export controls, with non-Chinese sellers of the key ingredient in solar panels and artillery said to be able to extract prices above US$40,000/t on small deliveries. That's over four times higher than prevailing prices in early 2024.

Tungsten, a dense metal used in heavy alloys for defence applications like jet aviation and anti-tank munitions, was among the host of commodities China issued controls on last week in response to the promise of 10% tariffs against Chinese exports by US President Donald Trump.

"With what's going on with tariffs and the trade war between the US and China, we can see that becoming a really strong theme," Gorenstein said. "Particularly on the commodity side, maybe not so much on the equity side.

"So that's one we're doing a lot of work on."

Copper catalysts

The key concern for copper bulls tends to be that substitution, especially from cheaper but also conductive metals like aluminium, could moderate the upside as supply shortages emerge.

Gorenstein, however, sees less threat from the phenomenon than some other investors.

"What we know is that the copper mines miss their forecasts time and time again, and that will likely continue," he said.

"There is a way that's balanced out ... but at some point that will stop balancing, and there will be a shortage of copper, which will create a need for substitution.

"Substitution isn't so much a risk, but there's a requirement for substitution, because there won't be enough copper to supply."

Gorenstein says looming shortages have been on the cards for five years: "The question is at what point does it come and at what point does the market start pricing it in?"

The upside risk for copper is in the Chinese economy, which has the potential to transform the demand side of the equation.

"China's obviously doing things a bit tough at the moment and that's well known," Gorenstein said. "The question I'm asking myself is when does bad news out of China become good news in the sense of it forces a major stimulus package, which creates a demand shock which will create that deficit and drive the price up."

Among Ari's key copper picks are dual-listed Capstone Copper Corp (ASX:CSC), which is in growth mode from its mines in South America and FireFly Metals (ASX:FFM), which holds the re-emerging Green Bay project in Newfoundland, Canada. But he thinks even large caps like Freeport McMoran will deliver leverage should copper prices really start to run.

The risks are higher when it comes to the critical minerals space, with a rush of companies acquiring antimony projects or dusting off old drill samples to stake a claim in the space.

Gorenstein said Lode Resources (ASX:LDR) is one that looks interesting, with a number of historical antimony mines on its tenure in New South Wales to assess.

"They're about to start a drill program, which will or won't bear fruit ... it certainly looks very prospective" he added.

Larvotto Resources (ASX:LRV), which owns the Hillgrove mine in NSW and is running studies to bring the historical producer back to production, is also on Gorenstein's watchlist.

Originally published as Stephen Gorenstein: How copper and critical minerals could become the themes of 2025