More upside in view for under-radar Nova as JPMorgan forecasts US$6000 gold price

Nova Minerals is looking forward to seeing the impact of a higher gold price in upcoming studies from its Estelle project.

Pic: Getty Images

• JPMorgan is forecasting a gold price of US$6000 (~A$9340) per ounce by the end of US President Donald Trump’s current term in 2029

• As gold continues to move upwards gold miner Nova Minerals is flying under the radar

• The Nova team is moving full steam ahead to progress its 9.9Moz Estelle gold and critical minerals project, with studies under way

Special Report: Nova Minerals is advancing its Estelle gold project in Alaska towards production, with higher gold prices fuelling enormous upside as studies on the future mine progress.

And they could run even higher than recent record levels.

JPMorgan has just said gold prices could reach US$6000 (~A$9340) per ounce by the end of US President Donald Trump’s current term in 2029 – a thumping ~82 per cent increase on recent levels of ~US$3280 (A$5106).

The bullish case by the world’s largest capped bank is set to put even sharper focus on Australian-listed goldies.

Amid all the attention on local plays, there’s an ASX-lister with an advanced project nudging 10Moz that’s being flying under the radar on the other side of the world.

Nova Minerals’ Estelle gold and critical minerals project in Alaska currently has a global mineral resource estimate of 9.9Moz, placing it among the world’s largest undeveloped gold projects in a tier-1 jurisdiction.

A Phase 2 Scoping Study completed by Nova (ASX:NVA) in 2023 included a net present value of US$654 million (A$1.02 billion) based on a gold price of only US$1850 oz (A$2880).

But with the project highly leveraged to the price of the yellow metal, the study’s sensitivity analysis also showed that at a US$1980 oz (A$3082) gold price, the NPV rises to just shy of US$1 billion, at US$942 million (A$1.46 billion).

The flight to US$6000

JPMorgan says the US$6000 gold price scenario could occur if just 0.5% of foreign-held US assets are reallocated to gold as global trade and geopolitical tensions stoke uncertainty. That amounts to about 2500 tonnes into the precious metal over four years.

While that volume may not seem huge, the analysts pointed out in last week’s note that “the additional demand impulse on a quarterly basis is quite immense”. They added that given gold supply is quite inelastic, even a small boost in demand can create a big price swing.

JPMorgan’s note comes not long after Goldman Sachs released its view of a tail-risk scenario of up to US$4500/oz in its year-end 2025 price target. Goldman cited expanding central bank buying and forecast US interest rate cuts fuelling retail investment. Gold has already rallied by nearly 28 per cent this year.

Nova’s near-term outlook

Now gold is comfortably over US$3000/oz, even with a pullback on Monday night.

With major global investment banks forecasting more upside to come, Nova is focused on engineering and optimisation studies at Estelle’s key high-grade RPM deposit. Those studies will feed into a pre-feasibility study which is already under way as the company ramps up efforts to make the most of gold’s bull run.

Metallurgical studies, environmental test work, infrastructure permitting and exploration to upgrade the MRE over the 10Moz mark are also under way at the project in Alaska’s Tintina gold belt.

The PFS and upcoming exploration will inform a decision on whether to develop a start-up mine at RPM or a larger-scale option.

The upsized alternative would include the 6.64Moz bulk tonnage Korbel deposit, part of the mineralised Korbel Valley, which has a current resource of 8.65Moz and remains open from surface.

Nova is also advancing a Korbel pit design which will be used to illustrate the potential of an expanded project.

CEO Chris Gerteisen said he was looking forward to seeing the impact of a materially higher gold price in the upcoming studies.

“We’re now free of debt and can focus fully on maximising the returns from this large-scale project with potential for further growth and, importantly, near-term production from either RPM or Korbel,” he said.

“The team is very keen to ensure the engineering design, optimisation study and PFS carefully considers the options available to us to maximise the project’s returns.”

Critical bonuses

Nova is also defining a gold-antimony resource at the Stibium discovery within Estelle, which has been listed by independent resources expert RFC Ambrian as one of only nine potentially viable near-term antimony projects globally.

Nova has submitted an application for US Department of Defense (DoD) funding and believes a grant could jump start an antimony resource drill campaign at the Stibium prospect this year.

The DoD is offering multi-million dollar grants to companies which can develop resources of the critical mineral, and if successful, Nova is confident that it could be producing antimony in the near term as the US scrambles to source its own supply after China banned exports last December and prices skyrocketed.

Nova has also unearthed from the Wombat prospect at Estelle high-grade intercepts of another critical mineral, gallium, which has also seen exports to the US  banned by dominant producer China.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.

Originally published as More upside in view for under-radar Nova as JPMorgan forecasts US$6000 gold price