Gold Coast economy: Leading economist predicts city is on the ‘brink of a new golden age’

A leading economist says the Gold Coast is “on the brink of a new golden era of economic growth”, with predictions of something huge occurring in the next three years.

A leading economist says the Gold Coast is “on the brink of a new golden era of economic growth” which will return the city to its early 2000s boom.

The tourism capital’s economy is worth more than $41bn, up 30 per cent since 2012 when it was left on its knees in the fallout of the global financial crisis.

However, Bull + Bear Economics director Marcus Brown said he expected the city’s economy to grow by five to six per cent annually from now through to 2027, the kind of growth seen during the 2000s real estate and tourism boom.

However, he argues the growth would be more sustainable this time.

“The Gold Coast has achieved strong levels of growth over the past 20 years, with some challenging patches, most notably the GFC and aftermath and the pandemic,” he said

Marcus Brown, director of Bull + Bear Economics

“However, for the most part, the Gold Coast has outperformed Queensland. What is most interesting about the Gold Coast’s economic growth story is how the city’s economic performance is typically an exaggeration of the prevailing state trend, that its booms are stronger and downturns are deeper.

“As the Gold Coast diversifies, economic cycles will become less volatile and we are anticipating economic growth in the order of five to six per cent over the next three years.”

The Gold Coast City Council’s most recent Economic Outlook Report, published in late 2023, showed the city had staged a “remarkable recovery” from Covid, with its Gross Regional Product (GRP) growth in 2021–22 exceeding the average year-on-year growth rate of the past two decades.

The year-on-year increase of 5.9 per cent between 2021 and 2022 in GRP surpassed the city’s predicted increase of 4.8 per cent.

The Gold Coast has a bright future ahead.

Compared to a decade ago, the economy’s composition has diversified from tourism and construction with health care and social services now the biggest employers along with “professional support and tech services”.

Mayor Tom Tate described the current economy as a “juggernaut”.

“We have 78,000 registered small businesses and our unemployment rate is around one per cent lower than the state average,” he said.

“It’s no wonder some people say that ‘when the Gold Coast economy hums, Queensland’s economy thrives’.”

It comes as more than 15,000 people are moving to the city annually and it struggles to house the growing population.

Mayor Tom Tate. Picture Glenn Hampson

Mr Brown said the Gold Coast would ultimately benefit from high immigration levels from both interstate and overseas, as well as diversification of the economy beyond tourism.

He pointed to the city’s rapid rebound from the pandemic in 2020, particularly its employment market.

“The GFC and the pandemic were challenging times for the Gold Coast, but to be sure the GFC was the most challenging time for the city’s economy,” he said.

“It took several years for employment growth to return to historic levels during and post-GFC, but only one year to recover after the pandemic.

“Historically inter-regional migration was the largest single component of population growth for the Gold Coast, followed by international migration and finally natural increase.

“Predictably international migration collapsed during the pandemic but surged back in the years following.”

Council CEO Tim Baker wrote in 2023 the increasing growth rate was “a sign of our city’s competitiveness as a place to invest well into the future with growth forecast to continue”.