Don’t count on an early election

WITH its tax cuts and big spending promises, the federal Budget looks very much like an election Budget. If so, when are we expected to go back to the polls?

ANALYSIS
THE extra excitable are forecasting a 2018 general election because of the Budget and the tax cuts it contains.

They have interpreted the fiscal relief as a starting gun for a ballot in October or September.

It won’t happen, and for that very reason above — the Budget and the tax cuts it contains.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull should be believed when he says he is aiming for a federal ballot in the first half of 2019, probably in April or May.

Because — dare it be said — he has a master plan.

The fundamental element of both the economic and political force of the Budget is optimism, a commodity that has been scarce in the national electorate for the past 10 years.

Optimism can be contagious, and successful political leaders are those who can harness it. Incumbent governments usually are re-elected by voters who believe the country is heading in the right direction.

Economic pointy heads might quibble with Budget detail but Treasurer Scott Morrison knows his real audience is not them. It’s not those who, as he told the National Press Club today, are “caught up in some sort of almond latte fog”.

It was a crude cultural sneer but an effective tactic by the Treasurer as he defended the importance to ordinary Australians of tax reductions providing extra cash for public transport, electricity bills, petrol for the family car.

Treasurer Scott Morrison says those who say his tax cuts are tiny are ‘out of touch’. Picture: Gary Ramage

He also was strengthening the prospect for more and better jobs from a healthy economy, and wages increasing at the same rate as economic growth.

Further, the government appears to have a long-term plan, one stretching to 2025 at least.

That is good news for voters long cranky with government ad hocery by all parties.

Mr Morrison, fond of football metaphors, said today: “We have a game plan and we will stick to it.”

Another feature of the Budget was it did not demand further sacrifices by taxpayers. It was the government that had to tidy up its economic act by moving quickly to a surplus.

The contrast with the nasty divisions and faked crisis of the “leaners and lifters” and “debt and deficit emergency” Budgets could not be stronger.

The government is telling voters it should be kept in power to complete the task, one directly affecting families. The opportunity for that will be an election early next year when economic growth, it hopes, will be confirmed.

In short, stick with the Coalition to continue riding the promised prosperity back into office.

“At the end of the day, everything rises and falls on a stronger economy,” Mr Morrison told the NPC.

“The security of your job, your business, your wage, your income, essential services you rely on — hospitals, schools, Medicare, disability services, affordable medicines, aged care — all funded, all delivered, all guaranteed out of a stronger economy.

“Bringing the budget back into balance, paying down debt, all dependent on continuing to build a stronger economy.”

Originally published as Don’t count on an early election