Conflict crossfire: Is it really safe to fly to Europe via Middle East?
Thousands of Aussies are primed to take off for the European summer but with an unpredictable and volatile situation unfolding in the Middle East, is it really safe to fly over the region?
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Thousands of Aussies are primed to take off for the European summer but with an unpredictable and highly volatile situation unfolding in the Middle East, is it really safe to fly over the region?
The major flight hubs of Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airlines were caught in the conflict crossfire early Tuesday when Iran fired missiles at US defence bases in Qatar, forcing the country’s airspace - and that of neighbouring United Arab Emirates - to temporarily close along with closures in Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq.
It caused mass global flight disruptions with many airlines forced to cancel or re-route services, with flight tracking websites showing a giant void in the Middle East as the airlines travelled under the conflict zone through Saudi Arabia or above via Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.
Qantas sent a Perth to Paris flight back to Perth and diverted another flight from Perth to London to Singapore.
Many major carriers have suspended flights to the Middle East for weeks.
A ceasefire between Israel and Iran is now in effect but the potential for fresh flare ups rightly has travellers nervous about how airlines can possibly predict what direction a fresh missile attack may come from.
Aviation experts have warned Australian travellers could cop extensive flight delays and cancellations from the conflict but have shed light on the highly sophisticated war zone communications that ultimately keep passenger jets safe from attack.
Which countries would airlines fly over?
Air Traffic Solutions managing director Mike Lockwood said Australian airlines flying to Europe usually travelled over the Middle East, whether it was through a direct route like Qantas’ flight from Perth to London, or with a stopover in Asia.
“They might be going through India and perhaps around the back of Iran or through Iraq, that’s a very common route as well,” he said.
“The Perth route would normally go through the Australian airspace a long way out towards India, then they’ll normally go along the bottom of India and then route through the Middle-East, perhaps Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia.
“It’s hard to say exactly because what the airlines do is they change their routes a lot depending on the winds... so there is some variation, it’s not the same route everyday.”
But the Iraqi airspace, which was between Iran and Israel, has been closed for several weeks now, resulting in significant impacts, he said.
“Aircrafts will either track further to the east, a lot further, to the east of Iran, or they will have to travel to the west, which will now take them through the UAE and Saudi Arabia before starting to turn north and head towards their final destinations in Europe.
“It puts pressure on the air traffic controllers on the ground because all of a sudden, you have a lot more airlines using the same amount of space - so it certainly causes congestion.
“One of my staff was in the Middle East when all this came about and their flight was stuck on the ground in Dubai for three hours, simply to find a spot in the airspace. It was that busy.”
What do airlines consider when they’re rerouting?
Aviation Projects managing director Keith Tonkin explained the airlines look at different factors while planning and monitoring routes, and would also communicate any issues to pilots while they’re mid-air.
If airlines were needing to divert and stop at any new airports along the way, Mr Tonkin said they need to check first, because “sometimes the airports don’t have enough capacity to accommodate all the airplanes”.
“They’ll try and understand if they have enough fuel on board the aircraft to fly those routes.
“If they have to fly further and carry more fuel, that means they need to carry fewer passengers or a bit less cargo.
“There’s a bit of maths to do there and to make sure that the aircraft can fly as far as they need to, and carry as many passengers as they want.”
He added diversions would result in extra costs from fuel, flying time and accommodation for workers.
Airlines also have to consider airspace and congestion, Mr Lockwood added.
“You can only fit so many aircrafts in a certain volume of airspace, so if more aircrafts are trying to use it then there are delays and those delays just cascade back to back down through the system.
“For example, aircrafts departing Australia may have to get a slot time to enter airspace somewhere in the Middle East, which affects their departure time out of Australia.
“It still keeps everything safe and that’s why the slot systems are in place to make sure that the air traffic controllers aren’t overloaded by having too many aircrafts in the airspace.”
Should travellers feel nervous about flying through the Middle East?
The experts say no.
Mr Lockwood said the airlines were alerted in advance about missile strikes or other hazards, through notices to airmen (NOTAM) - alerts for pilots issued by countries.
“I work a lot in the Middle East and it’s actually a lot more ordered during these conflicts than you may believe.
“There’s no benefit for any country to accidentally shoot down an airliner and there’s very stringent processes in place to avoid that.
“The airspace in Iraq was shut via a NOTAM prior to attacks being launched between Israel and Iran recently.”
There was a possibility an airspace could close while a plane was flying through it, but airlines, air traffic controllers and regulators would work to push the aircraft out of the area “as quickly as possible”, Mr Lockwood said.
He added recent flight diversions and the closure of airspace was a good sign that governments and the aviation industry were prioritising the safety of travellers.
“Airlines monitor what’s going on for all of their aircrafts and all of the airspace they fly through.
“Passengers can rest assured that airlines won’t be flying in a certain airspace unless it is safe to do so, they’ll cancel flights.”
But he warned there could be delays and disruptions to travellers’ plans.
Are there any alternative routes?
If Aussies are still too anxious to fly through the Middle East, they could go to Europe by going higher through Asia, or through the US, Mr Lockwood said.
The route from China or Japan went over the pole, but could be “complicated” because of the closure of Russian airspace and sanctions from other countries.
The US route on the other hand would be a “much longer and more expensive” trip, he said.
Could there be permanent changes to routes if the conflict escalates?
Mr Tonkin said the airlines will probably take it “day to day” if the conflict continues for an extended period.
“They will probably consider what they need to do to try and maintain the service as best they can, however they can and progressively reintroduce flights as soon as they can when it’s safe,” he said.
Mr Lockwood said there would be “short-term pain” for passengers and operators.
He also said it wasn’t “great timing” for Virgin in particular, with it listing on the ASX today.
He added the aviation industry would see short-term impacts like a rise in the cost of fuel, due to disruption to oil supply out of the Middle East and added costs from flight diversions.
Are travellers entitled to anything if they face delays or cancellations?
Choice travel insurance expert Jodi Bird said passengers were generally bound to the conditions of carriage for their airline.
A premium airline might give its customers a refund if it cancelled a flight due to closed airspace in Qatar, but a cheaper airline might only grant a credit, he explained.
“That will specify whether you might be entitled to compensation if it’s a significant delay, or refund or credit if there’s a cancellation.
“You do unfortunately have to read that little fine print that you got when you bought your ticket.”
He warned airlines could give less compensation if they deemed the circumstances as outside of their control - for example, a country cancelling its airspace.
“If you are delayed usually for more than about three hours, they will entitle you to some kind of compensation for accommodation and meals.
“But you do have to check with the airline on that and make sure that you’re getting what you’re due.”
And customers wanting to cancel their trips of their own accord were “far less likely to get their money back”, he said.
“You’re better off just keeping in touch with the airline and keeping a monitor of their website to see what kind of advice they’re giving out.
“If the airline thinks it’s unsafe to travel, they will let you know and then they will either reroute or cancel that flight and therefore you’ll get your money back.”
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