Aircraft numbers to soar, says Boeing as Jetstar gets ready for Dreamiliner

IF YOU think the sky is busy now you're in for a shock - Boeing predicts the number of commercial aircraft in the world fleet will more than double in the next 20 years.

Boeing says the number of commercial aircraft in the world fleet will more than double in the next 20 years.

IF YOU think the sky is busy now you're in for a shock.

Boeing, the aviation Goliath based on America's west coast that changed the way the we saw flying when it developed the 747 Jumbo Jet in the 1960s, has predicted the number of commercial aircraft in the world fleet will more than double in the next 20 years.

At last count in 2012 there were 20,310 passenger planes flying holiday makers and business people around the friendly skies, with that tally expected to jump to a staggering 41,240 aircraft by 2032.

The target means Boeing and Airbus - the American organisation's European rival, best known for creating the double-decker A380 - will be required to manufacture 35,280 passenger jets at a cost of $4.8 trillion in just two decades.

Randy Tinseth, Boeing's vice-president of marketing, said 59 per cent of that anticipated world-wide order would cover industry growth and boost individual airline fleets with the remaining number pencilled in to replace older models as they reach retirement.

"We've seen really strong growth in the market, and the aviation industry has proven to be resilient given all the changes we've seen in the world economy over recent years,'' the senior staffer said during a briefing to Australian media visiting the group's Seattle headquarters over the weekend.

The economy class cabin on Jetstar's new Boeing 787 Dreamliner.

"Airlines around the world have been moderately profitable, load factors are growing, utilisation of aircraft is up, the number of planes leaving the fleet is increasing, and there is strong demand for new airplanes to be delivered.

"There was a $12 billion profit for the aviation industry in 2012 and, as we look into next year, that's expected to grow.

"There has also been an increase in production rates, with Boeing delivering as many planes in the first nine months of this year as we did in the whole of 2011.''

The insightful Boeing briefing also predicted the world economy would increase by 3.2 per cent between 2012 and 2032, the number of airline passengers would jump by 4.1 per cent, and airline traffic would hit a spike of 5 per cent.

Mr Tinseth, who was briefing the media contingent in Seattle to watch Australia's first 787 Dreamliner handed over to Jetstar early this week, said airlines in Asia and across the Pacific would lead the charge towards 2032 with 12,820 new aircraft going into the region's armada.

The majority will be single-aisle jets like Boeing's 737, which has become a favourite with the neighbourhood's growing collection of low-cost carriers, while almost 2600 units were expected to be larger dual-aisle models like the 777 and 787.

"The Asia-Pacific region has consistently been one of the most profitable regions, in terms of customers, over the decades,'' he explained.

"Australia has one of the biggest economies, and one of the most consistent as well, and we expect the market will grow a little faster in the future.

"The Asia-Pacific is divided into five regions - including Oceania with Australia - and our forecast said airlines in Oceania will need 1,010 new airplanes valued at $140 billion in the next two decades.''

Boeing says the number of commercial aircraft in the world fleet will more than double in the next 20 years.

The marketing manager, who has been with Boeing for more than 28 years and can remember watching the 767 take it's first test flight during his early days with the company, says his team compiles the market predictions to help internal planning and arm customers with information.

"We've been doing long-term forecasting since the beginning of the jet age back in the 1950s,'' he said.

"We do it to help develop product strategy and have input to the business' long-range plan, but we also share the forecast with suppliers and customers to help them with planning.

"The first forecast came out in 1961 and, if anything, we've been a bit more conservative because as we look back now we've seen more aircraft delivered than anticipated.''

*Jetstar and Australia's first 787 Dreamliner will be collected by Qantas Group CEO Alan Joyce on Monday morning, Seattle time, and arrive in Melbourne on Wednesday afternoon.