Tour Down Under tourist numbers in spotlight with ABS statistics failing to support government figures

JUST how many tourists visit South Australia for the Tour Down Under? The Government says 40,000, but ABS statistics don't back that up.

Orica-GreenEDGE leads the peloton during Stage 6 of the 2014 Tour Down Under. Picture: AFP

THE number of tourists the State Government says are here for the Tour Down Under has been contradicted by official figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which says arrivals actually dropped during race month last year.

Tourism Minister Leon Bignell has this week trumpeted the 40,000 interstate and overseas visitors he says travelled specifically to South Australia to attend the 2013 event.

ABS data for the same period, however, fails to identify a significant increase in the number of tourists during January.

In December 2012, 183,379 guests arrived at South Australian hotels and motels with more than 15 rooms.

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In January 2013, that number dropped to 180,841. The 2013 Tour Down Under was held between January 20 and 27.

Mr Bignell was adamant that most of the 40,000 TDU-specific tourists claimed to have been here stayed in accommodation with fewer than 15 rooms, and therefore would not be picked up by the ABS survey.

"Most people who travel with their bikes and stuff stay at B&Bs or they rent out holiday houses at Aldinga, McLaren Vale, Barossa Valley or Adelaide Hills," he said.

"I've been covering this race as a journo and now the Tourism Minister for 16 years. I know how it works, I get out and about."

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Events South Australia is charging local councils $15,000 for a stage start, $20,000 for a stage finish and $25,000 for a start or finish to the BUPA Challenge, the spectator ride, for the 2015 race.

The methods used to quantify the benefits of the event, however, remain secret.

The 40,000 number was determined by McGregor Tan, a research firm with an office in Frewville.

Although Mr Bignell offered to provide the whole McGregor Tan report in discussions with The Advertiser, that offer was later withdrawn, the report being deemed commercial-in-confidence.

McGregor Tan general manager Peter Hine was not prepared to comment without permission from the Government, apart from describing the method used to determine their findings as an "in-house model".

Evidence suggests McGregor Tan's work is based on spectator surveys. Mr Bignell claimed "we've done the surveys" in conversation, and an executive summary of McGregor Tan's research into the 2009 race provided to the City of Onkaparinga details the use of surveys. However, no sample sizes are given.

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Surveys with small sample sizes can produce inaccurate results, which if extrapolated can produce incorrect findings. McGregor Tan's summary included extrapolation:

"Knowing that 20 per cent of survey participants within the City of Onkaparinga indicated that they attended or were involved in the Tour Down Under or Race Events, we can estimate that the number of residents of the City of Onkaparinga, aged 18 plus, who attended or were involved the Tour Down Under was 22,566."

A separate ABS release collects data from international visitors when they depart Australia on the state where they spent the bulk of their visit.

This data shows that January is typically the most popular month for international tourists to South Australia, and January 2013 provided the highest number of 25,000.

However, this information is recorded when a tourist departs South Australia and the TDU wasn't finished until January 27, making it difficult to attribute to attribute this increase to the Tour.

Numbers dropped in February to 16,400, the lowest monthly tally between November 2012 and April 2013.

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