‘Follower and thug’: China’s brutal taunt after warship threat
Chairman Xi Jinping has “deliberately” threatened Australia – and now, China is doubling down on its attacks.
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Storm in a teacup? Or a shot across the bows?
Politicians, lobbyists and strategic analysts are up in arms after Chinese warships disrupted flights along a commercial air corridor between Australia and New Zealand last month.
Some argue the live-fire exercise was perfectly legal, standard operating procedure, and to be expected of any warships operating in international waters anywhere.
Others claim that the location, timing and ambiguity surrounding whether or not passenger aircraft were given advanced warnings are yet another example of Beijing’s coercive ploys.
Whatever the case, the explosive response generated ahead of the Australian federal election later this year is a significant propaganda victory for China.
Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman Wu Qian twisted the knife late last week when he told state-controlled media that: “I’d also like to ask, when the Australian side conducts military activities near China, will it make notifications in advance?”
The fact that Australia issues advanced notice of life-fire exercises as routine is irrelevant. Beijing has twisted this to include simply sending ships into international waters.
“We urge Australia to abandon its fantasy of speculation and adventure, strictly restrain the actions of its frontline naval and air forces, and not be willing to be a follower and thug, stirring up trouble in the South China Sea and harming others and itself,” added Defence Ministry Spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang.
Australian voices are now echoing that call. Though not necessarily for the same reasons.
Is the Royal Australian Navy simply too small and poorly equipped to contribute to South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam’s security by patrolling the South China Sea?
Can it respond to another “legal” coercive incident, such as disrupting the flow of fuels from Singapore? Despite decades of warnings, Canberra is yet to build an onshore strategic reserve. Stockpiles remain at just 20 days for diesel, 24 days for petrol, and 24 days for jet fuel.
“China’s unprecedented naval drills in the Tasman Sea signal a bold shift in its military strategy,” argues international affairs analyst Dr Guangyi Pan of UNSW Canberra.
“Timed with US Indo-Pacific Commander Samuel J. Paparo’s visit to Canberra, this move tests regional security dynamics amid the Trump-Putin deal, challenging strategic stability.”
Splitting hairs
“The facts suggest the disruption from the Chinese vessels was caused by inexperience or poor procedure, rather than some more nefarious purpose,” argues UNSW history and maritime strategy specialist Richard Dunley.
“The activities of the Chinese task force are not some aggressive move of gunboat diplomacy in our region. In many ways, this sensationalist messaging has distracted from a much bigger issue. The presence of Chinese naval ships in our region is going to be a fact of life. And due to failures from both sides of politics over the past 15 years, Australia’s navy is ill-equipped to meet that challenge.”
China’s navy has rapidly adapted and expanded over the past two decades. It now outnumbers the United States in all categories except nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and nuclear-powered attack submarines.
But it’s been using that growing strength to muscle in on the territorial waters of its neighbours and lay claim to waters otherwise deemed international.
And the timing of the live-fire drill beneath a busy Australia-New Zealand air corridor appears significant.
It came just 10 days after an Australian PC-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft was confronted by a Chinese flare-dropping fighter in the South China Sea. That’s roughly how long it takes for a warship to travel from the South China to Tasman seas.
It also came as the chief of the US Indo-Pacific Command was conducting meetings in Canberra.
“Rather than doubting whether China’s military brinkmanship falls within international law or normal practice, what matters is the political signals China wants to convey,” Dr Pan argues.
“By deploying warships in close proximity to Australian waters and executing live-fire drills without prior warning, China is gauging Canberra’s capacity and willingness to respond to such provocations … It is more about a deliberate test, an unmistakeable display of Beijing’s growing confidence in power projection, and a calculated challenge to the strategic balance during the Trump-Putin deal.”
Wavyblue line
“Why make it easy for the Chinese navy? Let’s at least show them that our navy can match it with them in skilful manoeuvres. Let’s raise the cost to Beijing, not give it a free ride to demean us,” argues Strategic Analysis Australia founder Peter Jennings.
“Is there any Australian navy platform on the east coast in a position to put to sea right now for that purpose? I do not know the answer to that question.”
The two warships of Task Group 107 at the heart of last month’s live fire incident match the firepower of the Royal Australian Navy missile-for-missile.
Take a look at the PLA Navy's Type 055 large destroyer Yan'an (Hull 106) sailing at sea in a flotilla. As an escort for aircraft carriers, the 10,000 ton-class warship is a sharp sword of the PLA Navy making strides toward the deep blue waters. (Video: CCTV) pic.twitter.com/SECFEiSSva
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) February 5, 2025
The Chinese 13,000-tonne Type 055 Renhai-class cruiser, a 4000-tonne Type 054A Jiangkai II frigate and a 23,000-tonne Type 903 Fuchi-class replenishment ship are now believed to be in the Indian Ocean off Perth, WA.
China has eight Type 055 cruisers, with more under construction. There are 35 Type 054 frigates.
Two of Australia’s three 7000-tonne Air Warfare Frigates (ambitiously called destroyers by the Australian Defence Force, despite being copies of a Spanish frigate design) are operational. One of these has just completed a deployment to the South China Sea.
The RAN also has eight 3600-tonne Anzac class frigates, though less than half are believed to be operational.
For a three ocean island-trading nation, there is no national security or economic security without strong maritime security.
— Chief of Navy Australia (@CN_Australia) December 10, 2024
BZ to the crew of #HMASBrisbane for the successful firing of a Tomahawk missile, during a test and evaluation activity off the coast of the US. pic.twitter.com/zgDFPKeI7H
“The growing need of Australian ships to escort Chinese vessels in our region will (also) place an increasing strain on Australian replenishment capability,” Dunley adds.
“At present, both of Australia’s resupply ships are out of service. Additional capacity was also cut from the recent defence budget.”
It’s not a good look if Australia’s diplomatic stance is one of standing up to regional bullies.
“By conducting operations in distant waters, China is assessing the effectiveness of military manoeuvres as a tool of intimidation,” writes Dr Pan.
“The nature of these exercises can thus be interpreted as a deliberate stress test: an assessment of how quickly and effectively Australia and its allies can co-ordinate responses to sudden military manoeuvres in their vicinity.”
Testing the limits
“Trump’s isolationism has already horrified the US’ European allies,” says Dr Pan.
“Therefore, in a more critical way, China will test the responses from the US and see if Trump’s approach in Ukraine also applies in Asia.”
Europe’s response to President Trump’s openly hostile reception of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week was to knuckle down on increased defence spending and self-reliance.
But, according to Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst David Uren, Australia may not be in an economically sound enough position to follow suit.
Australia spends 2 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), $53.3 billion, on defence. The US spends 3.4 per cent.
“For Australia, 3.5 per cent of GDP would be $97 billion, about 75 per cent more than was actually provided for defence in the budget,” Uren points out.
“To get an additional $40 billion a year from taxation looks politically painful.”
One thing Australia’s defence analysts agree on is that this is likely to be the first of many similar tours by Chinese naval forces.
“China’s strategic thinkers are likely assessing whether prolonged and intense military pressure — without direct invasion — can achieve political and strategic objectives,” Dr Pan explains.
Russia’s three-day invasion of Ukraine failed. Fighting has now entered its fourth year.
This military failure – and the global economic sanctions imposed upon Moscow – is believed to have caused Beijing to hesitate about its threatened military takeover of Taiwan.
“In Beijing’s view, if the US allies are unwilling to act decisively in response to sustained pressure, it may opt for an incremental strategy — gradual economic strangulation, intensified military exercises, and cyber warfare — to isolate Taiwan over time,’ Dr Pan concludes.
“This will not be the last time when China’s navy shows up in the Tasman Sea for military purposes. Again, it is a stress test, but it also serves as a warning — one that Australia, the US, and Taiwan cannot afford to ignore.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @jamieseidel.bsky.social
Originally published as ‘Follower and thug’: China’s brutal taunt after warship threat
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