2014-15 tropical cyclone outlook: only one cyclone to cross Australia’s east coast

OCTOBER marks the start of cyclone season — remember the devastating Cyclone Yasi in 2011? The weather bureau reveals what we’re in for this time.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi 2011. Port Hinchinbrook aerial. Yachts and boats are left crushed against each other in Port Hinchinbrook in the aftermath of Cyclone Yasi that terrorised the North Queensland coast. J7669976 Photo Credit: Evan Morgan Picture: Supplied

THERE’S good news for people living in cyclone-prone areas of Australia, with fewer tropical cyclones predicted this season.

But residents are still being urged to have an emergency plan in place and not be complacent.

The Bureau of Meteorology released its annual Tropical Cyclone Outlook today, with activity expected to range between average to below-average during 2014-15 season.

Be ready ... A satellite view of Tropical Cyclone Yasi, which is now a category 5 storm, as it heads towards Queensland.

For Australia as a whole, the Tropical Cyclone Outlook indicates a 66 per cent chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than normal. Breaking it down to regions, the outlook forecasts a below-average season for Australia’s north-west, but near-average activity for the country’s west, north and east.

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Devastating effects of Cyclone Yasi ... Dunk Island Resort in February 2011. Picture: Brian Cassey

In a typical year, about 11 tropical cyclones form in the oceans surrounding northern Australia between November and April.

“History shows that about half of all cyclones that form over Australian waters have some impact on coastal regions, which means that even during an average or below-average season we would expect to see a number of impacts for communities in northern Australia,” said the bureau’s Climate Prediction Manager Andrew Watkins.

The main reason behind the forecast is El Nino-like weather patterns resulting in cooler ocean temperatures, which often lead to fewer tropical cyclones.

Still, Dr Watkins said people can’t be complacent.

In past El Niño years, there has been at least one cyclone to cross the Australian coast, he said, warning that even one can cause significant damage and be potentially fatal.

Cyclone Yasi cost $3.6 in damage ... The luxurious East Bedarra Island Retreat in February 2011.

The release of the Tropical Cyclone Outlook coincides with the Queensland Government’s launch of RACQ Get Ready Week.

“The Bureau of Meteorology has indicated around four cyclones will form this storm season and at least one could cross the coast, so now is the time for Queenslanders to prepare,” Queensland Community Recovery and Resilience Minister David Crisafulli told media on Monday.

Flooding is likely to be less widespread than previous years, he said, but it should always be expected somewhere in the state every year, so early preparation is crucial.

“Quite simply, an evacuation plan is not grabbing a rope that is dangling from a helicopter when water is lapping at the top of your roof. That is a get-out-of-jail strategy,” Mr Crisafulli said.

Massive damage bill ... Yachts and boats are left crushed against each other in Port Hinchinbrook in the aftermath of Cyclone Yasi that terrorised the North Queensland coast in February 2011. Picture: Evan Morgan

The Bureau’s Western Australia Acting Regional Manager of Severe Weather Bradley Santos said even though a below-average season is predicted, that’s no indication of the threat to communities.

“Every season brings the risk of wind damage, storm surge, flooding and being cut off from food and basic resources, and there is simply no room for complacency,” Mr Santos said.

Coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk in Australia, he said.

AFTERMATH OF CYCLONE YASI

Originally published as 2014-15 tropical cyclone outlook: only one cyclone to cross Australia’s east coast