Why history is on Sydney Swans’ side despite injuries, to repeat 2023 season in 2025

Sydney started the 2023 season 3-6 with a slew of injuries and stormed home under John Longmire to make finals. Can 2025’s Dean Cox-led Swans do the same? The numbers say so.

Dean Cox remains optimistic that the Swans can turn their season around as they prepare to welcome the returning cavalry and pull off a similar escape to their remarkable top-eight run in 2023.

The comparison between the current Swans and their form two years ago is uncanny. Fresh off a disappointing grand final loss, Sydney’s injury list grew massively throughout the first few weeks of the 2023 season, leaving them languishing with a 3-6 record.

Throughout the early period, they had a lot of similar names on the injury list. Callum Mills and Logan McDonald headlined the group, as well as Joel Amartey and Dane Rampe, while both McCartin brothers were dealing with concussion issues that left Sydney’s defence severely undermanned.

Many wrote off their season, with some claiming John Longmire would need his “best Houdini act” yet to turn things around. But he did exactly that as the Swans won nine of their next 14 matches to scrape into eighth spot.

Cox has less personal experience to draw upon in his first year in charge, but having witnessed first-hand that comeback as an assistant coach, there is the belief that the Swans of this season could pull off something similar.

“One thing I’ve always done throughout my footy career is focus on what you can control,” Cox said. “It’s not looking at what happens 15 rounds down the track … it’s getting the players playing the best footy as quickly as they possibly can.

“We’re still confident that our best footy, and we’ve shown, just not consistently, that we can match teams no matter where they sit. We’ve played a lot of teams in the eight and we’ve actually performed well against them for periods, just not long enough.

Braeden Campbell and Dane Rampe after their loss to Essendon. Picture: Morgan Hancock/Getty Images.

“I want to make sure that we try and settle our team as much as we possibly can, as quickly as we can. It’s still going to take a little bit of time, but that’s all part of the challenge and why I enjoy doing the job.”

The Swans may look a little closer to their best team on Friday night against Carlton for the annual Marn Grook clash with several of their injured stars poised to return.

Joel Amartey is the most likely to be welcomed back into the team. The Swans’ leading goal-kicker from last season has trained strongly over the past week and a half following a hamstring strain and should be named if he gets through Wednesday’s main training session.

There is still some doubt over captain Callum Mills as he manages his workload from a plantar fascia tear. There is a chance that the skipper could return via the VFL in the curtain-raiser at the SCG on Friday afternoon, but Cox was adamant that Mills would have a big role to play in that decision.

Playing in the 28-year-old’s favour is the fact that he completed almost a full pre-season before suffering the tear, which means his workloads are still up to standard.

“(Wednesday training) is the last one he needs to get through before he decides to play a game, so hopefully that can happen,” Cox said.

Justin McInerney during last week’s loss. Picture: Morgan Hancock/Getty Images.

“Then the dynamic of what that looks like with the physios, medical staff, about is it restricted? We’re going to work our way through that. When you’ve got an experienced player, you have to bring them into the conversation as well.

“It’s a big decision for a footy club on your captain to get it right. So, we need to make sure we get it right.”

Taylor Adams is no guarantee to come straight back into the AFL side despite getting through his VFL return. Cox was far from pleased with the performance of his reserves side and stated that “Taylor was a part of that”.

A full game for Angus Sheldrick could come into consideration soon after two meaningful contributions over the past fortnight as the substitute. Back-up ruckman Peter Ladhams could also come into consideration, given the height and intercepting ability of the Blues.

“You talk about a lot of (Carlton’s) backline: Haynes, Silvagni plays tall, Weitering’s been in great form. Then you’ve got Young, Curnow, Harry (McKay) as well,” Cox said.

“They do have a tall team and the ability to make sure we can mitigate their defenders because they are the number one intercepting team across the comp. So we need to make sure that we can do that with the right match-ups.”

Originally published as Why history is on Sydney Swans’ side despite injuries, to repeat 2023 season in 2025