Melbourne Cup 2016: Early form guide for the great race

THE big race is almost upon us and this is the must read form that will help you find the winner of the 2016 Melbourne Cup.

THE big race is almost upon us and this is the must read form that will help you find the winner of the 2016 Melbourne Cup.

Leading Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his take on each of the remaining stayers in contention for a place in the final field of 24 that will contest the race that stops a nation on Tuesday.

MELBOURNE CUP: TAB FIXED ODDS

ORDER OF ENTRY

1. JAMEKA (Ciaron Maher) 53.5kg (including 2.0kg penalty)

Myboycharlie-Mine Game

4yo bay mare

Jockey: Nick Hall

Starts: 19: 5-4-4

Prizemoney: $3,670,725

Biggest wins: 2016 Caulfield Cup (2400m), VRC Crown Oaks (2500m) at Flemington

Strike rate: Win 26.32% Place 68.42%

Win range: 1400-2500m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $5.50

MANLEY SAYS: Top class staying mare who annihilated her rivals to win the Caulfield Cup last start. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race and although taking on 3200m for the first time is sure to go close.

Melbourne Cup 2016: Early form guide for the great race

2. ALMANDIN (Robert Hickmott) 51kg (including 1.0kg penalty)

Monsun-Anatola

7yo bay gelding

Starts: 11: 4-3-1

Prizemoney: $349,958

Biggest wins: 2014 Group 2 Unterneher (2200m) at Baden Baden, Germany; 2016 Group 3 Bart Cummings (2500m) at Flemington

Strike rate: Win 36% Place: 73%

Win range: 2040-2500m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $51 Current $11

MANLEY SAYS: Former German galloper who has struck form after being sidelined for ovoer two years. Has won his last two starts impressively. With light-weight is going to take beating.

3. BIG ORANGE (Michael Bell) 56kg

Duke Of Marmalade-Miss Brown To You

6yo bay gelding

Starts: 18: 7-2-1

Prizemoney: $1,495,511

Biggest wins: 2015, ‘16 Group 2 Goodwood Cup (3219m) at Goodwood

Strike rate: Win 39% Place 56%

Win range: 2012-3214m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $21 Current $15

MANLEY SAYS: Front running English stayer who is back for a second tilt at the Melbourne Cup .Drew the outside barrier and came across to lead in the early stages last year and fought on well for fifth beaten only 2.3 lengths. In similar if not better form this year having won Group 2 races at his past two starts the Princess Of Wales Stakes and the Goodwood Cup for a second year in a row.

4. OUR IVANHOWE (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 56kg

Soldier Hollow-Indigo Girl

7yo bay horse

Starts: 21: 6-2-1

Prizemoney: $1,467,973

Biggest win: 2015 Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m)

Strike rate: Win 27% Place 41%

Win range: 2000-2400m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $26 Current $26

MANLEY SAYS: Former German galloper who stuck on well in the Caulfield Cup after having had a tough run. The way he’s racing the step up to 3200m will suit. Lee Freedman also knows about winning Melbourne Cups having trained five winners. Likes it wet.

5. CURREN MIROTIC (Osamu Hirata) 55.5kg

Heart’s Cry-Star Mie

9yo chestnut gelding

Starts: 37: 6-6-6

Prizemoney: $4,005,361

Biggest win: 2013 Group 2 Kinko Sho (2000m) at Chukyo

Strike rate: Win 10% Place 38%

Win range: 1800-2000m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $21 Current $21

MANLEY SAYS: Japanese stayer with sound credentials. His last two starts over 3200m he’s been placed in the Tenno Sho at Kyoto, one of Japan’s great races having finished third last year behind Gold Ship and second this year behind Kitasan Black. No nine-year-old gelding has won the Melbourne Cup.

6. HARTNELL (John O’Shea) 55kg

Authorized-Debonnaire

6yo bay gelding

Starts: 27: 10-6-1

Prizemoney: $2,673,999

Biggest wins: 2015 Group 1 The BMW (2400m) at Rosehill Gardens , 2016 Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington

Strike rate: Win 35.71% Place 57.14%

Win range: 1600-3219m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $4.20

MANLEY SAYS: The second banana in the match race with Winx and although no match for her he still ran well and lost no admirers. Form beforehand was extraordinary. Another who suffered interference in the 2015 Melbourne Cup. Has won over 3200m in England.

Hartnell shapes as Godolphin’s best hope of winning its first Melbourne Cup.

7. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (Chris Waller) 55kg

Yamanin Vital-Ears Carol

8yo bay gelding

Starts: 36: 9-6-2

Prizemoney: $2,235,446

Biggest win: 2014 Group 1 Auckland Cup (3200m), 2015 Group 2 Zipping Classic at Sandown

Strike rate: Win 25% Place 47%

Win range: 1600-3200m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $51 Current $26

MANLEY SAYS: Old fashioned stayer who just keeps coming. He’s contesting his third Melbourne Cup having finished third in 2014 and last year his chances were ruined in the straight when he was flattened yet somehow was only beaten four lengths. He’s right on song judging by his second in the fast run Moonee Valley Cup last star. The winner of last year’s Cup, Prince Of Penzance finished second in the same race.

8. WICKLOW BRAVE (Willie Mullins) 55kg

Beat Hollow-Mondaine

8yo bay gelding

Starts: 29: 9-3-5

Prizemoney: $897,408

Biggest win: 2016 Group 1 Irish St Leger (2816m)

Strike rate: Win 31% Place 59%

Win range: 2816-3220m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $101 Current $16

MANLEY SAYS: Tough Irish stayer who defeated some smart stayers at his last start to win the Irish St Leger. His trainer has only brought two horses previously for the Melbourne Cup and they’ve run fourth and second.

9. BONDI BEACH (Aidan O’Brien) 55kg

Galileo-One Moment In Time

5yo bay horse

Starts: 10: 4-3-2

Prizemoney: $559,619

Biggest wins: 2016 Group 3 Vintage Crop Stakes (2800m) at Navan, 2015 Group 3 Curragh Cup (2816m)

Strike rate: Win 40% Place 90%

Win range: 2414m-2816m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $26 Current $11

MANLEY SAYS: Another who was skittled in last year’s Melbourne Cup. His UK form was better last year in the lead-up to this. He’s in the world’s most powerful stable. Can’t dismiss.

10. EXOSPHERIC (Lee and Anthony Freedman) 55kg

Beat Hollow-Bright And Clear

5yo bay horse

Starts: 11: 4-0-3

Prizemoney: $521,115

Biggest win: 2016 Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes (2414m) at Newmarket

Strike rate: Win 36% Place 64%

Win range: 2012-2414m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $26 Current $16

MANLEY SAYS: Former English stayer who ran home strongly in the Caulfield Cup at his Australian debut to finish third behind Jameka. Should be improved by that. Stepping up to 3200m for the first time.

11. GRAND MARSHAL (Chris Waller) 53.5kg

Dansili-Marqarula

7yo brown gelding

Starts: 37: 8-6-5

Prizemoney: $2,028,792

Biggest win: 2015 Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m) at Royal Randwick, 2016 Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m)

Strike rate: Win 22% Place 51%

Win range: 1600-3200m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $26

MANLEY SAYS: Died in the wool stayer who was suited by the fast pace in the Moonee Valley Cup which he swept home to win. Three starts over 3200m for a win in the Sydney Cup and two placings. Was flattened in this race last year. Should run well.

Chris Waller stablemates Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman will battle it out again in the Melbourne Cup.

12. GALLANTE (Robert Hickmott) 53.5kg

Montjeu-Crazy Volume

6yo bay gelding

Starts: 16: 4-1-3

Prizemoney: $2,001,794

Biggest wins: Biggest wins: 2016 Group 1 Sydney Cup at Royal Randwick (3200m), 2014 Group 1 Gp De Paris at Longchamp.

Strike rate: Win 25% Place 50%

Win range: 1600-3200m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $51

MANLEY SAYS: 2016 Sydney Cup winner who was progressing well until his failure in the Moonee Valley Cup but was gassed in the lead and had to compound. Much better than that and worth another chance.

13. ALMOONQITH (D & B Hayes and T Dabernig) 53.5kg

Dynaformer-Bohemian Lady

7yo bay horse

Starts: 31: 6-3-1

Prizemoney: $765,125

Biggest wins: 2015 Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m), 2015 LR Sandown Cup (3200m)

Strike rate: Win 19% Place 32%

Win range: 1600-3200m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $16

MANLEY SAYS: Aside from the win of Jameka he handed in the best Melbourne Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup flying home for fourth, recording the fastest last 200m. Another whose chances were ruined last year by interference. 3200m winner. Right in this.

14. REAL LOVE (Darren Weir) 52kg

Desert King-Flaming Heart

6yo chestnut mare

Starts: 32: 10-6-6

Prizemoney: $1,421,910

Biggest wins: 2015 Group 2 Perth Cup (2400m), 2016 Group 3 JRA Cup (2040m) at Moonee Valley, 2016 Group 3 Premier’s Cup (2200m) at Doomben

Strike rate: Win 31% Place 69%

Win range: 1400-2600m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $51 Current $35

MANLEY SAYS: Tough as teak West Australian mare who has taken her game to another level since joining the Weir Stable. Placed in the Adelaide Cup earlier this year.

15. SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (John Thompson) 53kg

Sir Percy-Athene

8yo bay gelding

Starts: 29: 8-6-1

Prizemoney: $1,172,843

Biggest wins: 2016 Group 1 The Metropolitan (2400m) at Royal Randwick, 2016 Group 3 Sky High Stakes at Rosehill Gardens

Strike rate: Win 28% Place 52%

Win range: 1800-2400m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $101 Current $35

MANLEY SAYS: Struck trouble mid-race in the Caulfield Cup and trainer said he didn’t handle the track. Talented Sydney stayer who worked well on Tuesday at Flemington. Query in this class.

Sir John Hawkwood staked his Cup claims with a big win in The Metropolitan at Randwick.

16. HEARTBREAK CITY (Tony Martin) 53kg

Lando-Moscow Nights

7yo bay gelding

Starts: 22: 6-0-3

Prizemoney: $506,210

Biggest win: 2016 Ebor Handicap (2816m) at York

Strike rate: Win 29% Place 43%

Win range: 2000-3319m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $151 Current $14

MANLEY SAYS: In form Irish galloper who has won four of his last five starts, including two hurdle races. Won the Ebor easily last start at York which is a good lead-up race for the Melbourne Cup. Sar jockey Joao Moreira rides

17. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE (Saeed bin Suroor) 51.5kg

New Approach-Mazuna

5yo bay mare

Starts: 10: 3-0-3

Prizemoney: $375,678

Biggest win: 2016 Group 2 Middleton Stakes (2000m) at York

Strike rate: Win 30% Place 60%

Win range: 1600-2335m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $151 Current $35

MANLEY SAYS: Godolphin galloper who is a Group 1 placegetter and Group 2 winner. Recent form has been average though.

18. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott) 52.5kg

Monsun-Quenched

7yo brown horse

Starts: 25: 5-6-3

Prizemoney: $740,742

Biggest win: 2015 Group 3 Lexus Stakes (2500m)

Strike rate: Win 20 Place 56%

Win range: 1300-2500m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $51 Current $51

MANLEY SAYS: Talented stayer whose six runs at 2400m plus have all been sound. Led into the straight last year and finished seventh beaten just over three lengths. Tried hard in the Moonee Valley Cup when not suited by the wet track.

19. ASSIGN (Robert Hickmott) 51kg

Montjeu-Belesta

6yo bay/brown gelding

Starts: 14: 5-2-2

Prizemoney: $529,006

Biggest wins: 2016 Group 2 Herbert Power (2400m) at Caulfield, 2016 LR Vic Cup (2000m) at Caulfield

Strike rate: Win 36% Place 64%

Win range: 1800-2400m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $151 Current $51

MANLEY SAYS: No match for his stablemate two starts ago before he led throughout to win the Herbert Power. Fit and will run the distance right out.

20. SECRET NUMBER (Saeed bin Suroor) 51kg

Raven’s Pass-Mysterial

7yo bay gelding

Starts: 13: 5-2-2

Prizemoney: $565,908

Biggest win: 2013 Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2414m) at Ascot, 2015 LR Stand Cup at Chester

Strike rate: Win 38% Place 69%

Win range: 1600-2475m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $35

MANLEY SAYS: Came out here last year and missed a run in the Melbourne Cup and then finished second in the Queen’s Cup. Only had one run since for a win in a listed race at Ayr.

21. GREY LION (Matt Cumani) 51kg

Galileo-Grey Lilas

5yo grey horse

Starts: 11: 4-1-2

Prizemoney: $149,057

Biggest win: 2015 Prix de Laigneville (2000m) at Chantilly

Strike rate: Win 33% Place 67%

Win range: 1600-2500m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $301 Current $35

MANLEY SAYS: Former French galloper who tried hard in the Geelong Cup but couldn’t run down the front runner. Encouraging effort and stays under notice.

22. QEWY (Chris Appleby) 50.5kg (including 0.5 penalty)

Street Cry-Princess Nada

7yo bay gelding

Starts: 22: 3-4-5

Prizemoney: $179,616

Biggest wins: 2014 Listed Heritage Stakes (1609m) at Leopardstown, 2016 Group 3 Geelong Cup

Strike rate: Win 17% Place 57%

Win range: 1609-3319m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $101 Current $26

MANLEY SAYS: Godolphin raider who led throughout to win the Geelong Cup at his Australian debut. Dictated the speed on a front running track. Not sure he’s good enough but he tries hard.

23. PENTATHLON (John Wheeler) 50.5kg

Pentire-Pinders Prize

5yo chestnut gelding

Starts: 24: 5-1-3

Prizemoney: $158,628

Best performance: 2nd 2016 Group 1 Wellington Cup (3200m)

Strike rate: Win 21% Place 38%

Win range: 1800-3200m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $301 Current $51

MANLEY SAYS: Tough Kiwi stayer who has a win and a second in three tries over 3200m. Was working home nicely for third in the Moonee Valley Cup.

24. ROSE OF VIRGINIA (Lee & Shannon Hope) 50kg

Thorn Park-Centapin

7yo bay mare

Starts: 36: 6-4-3

Prizemoney: $251,548

Best performance: 2nd 2016 Group 1 Auckland Cup (3200m)

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $201 Current $301

MANLEY SAYS: Ran second in the Auckland Cup over 3200m but form this campaign has been average.

25. VENGEUR MASQUE (Michael Moroney) 50kg

Monsun-Venetian Beauty

5yo bay gelding

Starts: 10: 2-2-0

Prizemoney: $184,496

Best performance: 4th 2016 Group 1 Auckland Cup (3200m)

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $101 Current $101

MANLEY SAYS: Former French stayer secured a start in the Caulfield Cup and wasn’t disgraced, finishing eighth. Trainer Michael Moroney won the 2000 Melbourne Cup with Brew so knows what it takes to win the race.

26. OCEANOGRAPHER (Charlie Appleby) 50kg

Sea The Stars-Que Puntual

5yo bay gelding

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Starts: 9: 3-1-0

Prizemoney: $63,627

Biggest win: 2016 100-rater (2112) at Doncaster

Strike rate: Win 30% Place 50%

Win range: 2012-2213m

Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $151 Current $26

MANLEY SAYS: Powerful finish for third in the Geelong Cup. Needs luck to get a run, but can’t be ruled out if he makes the field. Has been well supported in betting.

Not passed ballot

DE LITTLE ENGINE (Danny O’Brien) 50kg

THE BANDIT (John Sadler) 50kg

TOM MELBOURNE (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50kg

Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2016: Early form guide for the great race