The Early Oil: The Herald Sun’s Matt Stewart previews Saturday’s Flemington meeting

TAB BIG BETS: THE Herald Sun’s Matt Stewart looks at the nine-race card at Flemington on Saturday.

Flemington races on New Year's Day. Race 6 won by no 9 Decircles ridden by Stephen Baster. Picture: Stuart Milligan

THE Herald Sun’s Matt Stewart looks at the nine-race card at Flemington on Saturday.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

RACE 1

SUPIDO (6) is a seriously good horse with a terrific turn of foot. Mick Kent may even be eyeing an Oakleigh Plate bid. Will beat these if can find his way through the field in the last 200m. Just doesn’t appear any serious opposition. TICKET TO TOORAK (7) is in form and can race handy. Winners up the straight have been coming down the middle (Bullpit last week) and he might find a good lane. LORD DA VINCI (8) is a progressive type who will be steaming late. MR WALKER (2) is also racing well and gets a handy claim.

SUGGESTED BET: Supido the win.

TAB market movers: Supido $2.10-$2 ($1,000 @ $2.10, $500 @ $2).

RACE 2

DECIRCLES (2) may have found a winnable race. Return to the straight suits, where has been most impressive when allowed to run along. ZUPACHARGED (4) is a bit of a trouble magnet as tends to drift back over the shorter trips. But small field gives him his chance to be right there and sprint. LONROCKSTAR (1) fits into the same well-placed category as Decircles. Straight record generally good and this is easier than the Standish. ONEROUS (6) has the sensational Malaguerra formline and was a good last-start winner. Can win. Sydney visitor HAVANA (3) has some upside. Tackling straight for the first time.

SUGGESTED BET: Decircles each-way.

RACE 3

ALL CERISE (3) has been a powerful on-pace winner at last two starts in Sydney. Should race up on speed here and finish strongly. NOELA’S CHOICE (1) takes on the girls third-up after two very encouraging runs at Group level against the males. MISS SOFTHANDS (2) is flying and Ollie has really clicked with her. Not sure barrier one is a spoil as seems to relish galloping room. GINALI (9) was OK at odds last start. VITAL IMPORTANCE (4) was good against the pattern/tempo last start and can get close to Miss Softhands.

SUGGESTED BET: All Cerise each-way.

All Cerise heads to Flemington after two good wins in Sydney.

RACE 4

REAL LOVE (2) has had a solid Perth Cup campaign and had been one of the West’s best horses, not merely a two-miler. Interesting new trainer Darren Weir has decided to race on rather than break, which suggests the mare came to him with plenty more to give. Good enough to finish close-up in a Railway a couple months back. TASHBEEH (9) has been up forever but seems to be as good now as a few months back. Just seems so well in with claim for top UK apprentice and drawn to get very soft run. STAR ROLLING (1) used to taper off quickly through campaigns but is racing super consistently. Nothing wrong with the way SECOND BULLET (3) is going and gets Oliver again. Might even take up the lead again and put the foot down.

SUGGESTED BET: Real Love the win.

TAB market movers: Second Bullet $2.70-$2.60 ($3,000 @ $2.70).

RACE 5

Great race with lots of good maiden winners having a throw at the stumps. One of those is SKY DAZZLE (15) who would want to be darn good to win this off a Sale maiden but looked outstanding that day. Has drawn well. LOVE DAYS (8) was posted on a limb last start, which may not have been as costly as some think. Effort still good to still be there at 100m. Suspect might relish middle alley up straight first time. Should get galloping room. HEATHERLY (1) has been learning as she goes this prep and really put it all together at the Valley. LAKE COMO (13) and ALMIGHTY GIRL (14) fit into same category as Sky Dazzle. ALASKAN ROSE (3) simply went off the boil in the spring. Looked very smart before that.

SUGGESTED BET: Sky Dazzle each-way.

TAB market movers: Magna Rossa $11-$9.50 ($1,500 @ $11).

RACE 6

DUIBIO (1) sprouted wings to beat a handy older sprinter in Boomwaa last start. Cannot ignore. HARBOUR GREY (3) is up in class but he’s a pretty handy galloper who races well here. PATTERN (7) is promising but under the odds because he really looks like he’s already screaming for 1600m. KING’S COMMAND (4) has Ollie and some hope.

SUGGESTED BET: Duibio each way.

TAB market movers: Duibio $6-$5 ($6,000 @ $6).

RACE 7

Very keen that ICONIC (2) will be too classy for these first-up. Happy to assume he didn’t come up in the spring after a fair while off. Has trialled well and backing Tony McEvoy’s astuteness. His best would be too strong. YESTERDAY’S SONGS (6) is better over a bit further but is a seriously good horse with a powerful turn of foot. Will be rattling late. HEADWATER (8) was a precocious early 2YO who then took on the top youngsters. Expect good run fresh. THE QUARTERBACK (1) must carry 60kg, which might dull his dynamic turn of foot, but good each-way chance. WILD RAIN (5) has really matured this prep. Can win again.

SUGGESTED BET: Iconic each-way No 2.

TAB market movers: Yesterday’s Song $8-$7, The Monstar $21-$15 ($1,000 @ $21), Headwater $13-$8 ($1,700 e/w @ $8/$2.64).

RACE 8

Pretty ho-hum affair. CAMDUS (9) is right up in grade and probably a risk on pure ratings but impressed last time and Weir has a knack of leaping grades with success. Gets Craig Williams. BEST SUGGESTION (12) is racing well enough to expose chinks in this field. No weight, well drawn. DIG A PONY (4) likes the 1400m here and would only have to improve an inch on first-up run to be chance here. THE NEW BOY (7) is a bit of a carousel horse (around and around) and lacks a killer punch but will give cheek on pace. Roughies might be KILLARNEY KID (5) and BEL SEAL (8).

SUGGESTED BET: Camdus one-out in quaddie.

TAB market movers: Camdus $2.20 unchanged ($1,000 @ $2.20).

RACE 9

Another Joe Average race by usual Flemington standards. Import AZURITE (1) will appreciate Flemington after OK effort at tighter Valley first-up. Won’t have needed to come on much. SIEGESTOR (4) is progressive and was an impressive winner at the Valley and can easily win again. SPREADEAGLED (11) has plenty of upside and similar on-the-up chance as Siegestor. Next best PEMBERLEY (9) and KINCAPLE CHIEF (8).

SUGGESTED BET: Azurite each-way.

MATT STEWART’S BEST BETS

BEST BET: SUPIDO (Race 1, No. 6)

BEST VALUE: ICONIC (Race 7, No. 2)

QUADDIE: 1,3,4,7/1,2,5,6,8/9/1,2,4,8,9,11.

Cost: $100 for 83.33 per cent.

BIG 6: 2/1,2,3,8,13,14,15/1,3,4,7,/1,2,5,6,8/9/1,2,4,8,9,11

Cost: $100 for 11.9 per cent.

Originally published as The Early Oil: The Herald Sun’s Matt Stewart previews Saturday’s Flemington meeting