The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley previews the Flemington card
HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley previews the nine-race card at Flemington featuring Group 3 Standish Handicap and the Listed Bagot Handicap.
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HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley previews the nine-race card at Flemington featuring Group 3 $150,000 Standish Handicap and the $150,000 Listed Bagot Handicap.
FRIDAY MEETINGS: (AEDT Times)
FLEMINGTON (9 races, start 12.25pm), ROYAL RANDWICK (8 races, start 1.20pm), DOOMBEN (8 races, start 1.28pm), MURRAY BRIDGE (7 races, 1.34pm), BUNBURY (8 races, start 4.34pm),
SATURDAY MEETINGS (AEDT Times)
ROSEHILL (9 races, start 12.40pm), MOONEE VALLEY (8 races, start 1.36pm),
SUNSHINE COAST (8 races, start 12.59pm), MORPHETTVILLE (8 races, start 1.25pm),
ASCOT (9 races, 3.21pm).
HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS
STABLE WATCH: ROYAL RANDWICK
RACE 1
Most impressive part of SWORD OF LIGHT’S (1) debut win at Echuca was the way she sprinted home over the final 100m putting five lengths on her rivals. Second horse Super Jan had at her previous start had finished third to subsequent Caulfield quinella of Hell Of An Effort and Ponte Roma at her only other start at Geelong. GIMLET (4) looks a ready made racehorse judging on her recent jump-out win at Caulfield. Other first starters LA RENARDE (5), VINTAGE QUARTZ (8), SPRUNG DANCING (7) and WANT TO ROCK (9) all showed ability in recent jump-outs. MAGICAL MILLY (2) isn’t chasing Capitalist in this and blinkers go on first time.
Suggested bet: Sword Of Light the win.
RACE 2
HARBOUR GREY (7) was given no peace at all in leading last start at Moonee Valley when he was just run down by Goodbye Toulouse. That was the fastest of four 1200m races that night. He also carried 60.5 kilos on that occasions and drops to 52 kilos after two kilos claim for Kieran Shoemark. SECRET BLEND (4) didn’t have the best of luck when he was just beaten at Geelong last start as he was held up for a run. After two runs back from a spell should now be ready to fire. Has been placed this track and distance. PURE KARMA (8) didn’t have a lot of luck in the same race when fourth. He’s also a promising horse. WE’VE GOT THIS (2) is a promising galloper who fought hard when second to Burning Front at Pakenham last start. You could build a strong case for every starter bar the bottom weight.
Suggested bet: Harbour Grey each-way.
RACE 3
INSPECTOR (5) is a solid citizen racing quite well. Dropped back in distance and battled on well last week when close-up seventh in the Lord Stakes behind Signoff. Didn’t have a lot of luck when placed third in the Traralgon Cup after good fifth in the Kilmore Cup. JACQUINOT BAY (1) has the blinkers off and the winkers on for the first time. He led when not beaten far when eighth in the Lord Stakes last start. Should be able to control the speed and three kilos claim from Dylan Dunn brings him in with 57 kilos. ALLERGIC (7) is a promising stayer and fitter for two runs back from a spell. Also drops four kilos on last start eighth at Caulfield. EVANGELIST (3) has been disappointing since winning the Sale Cup four starts ago. Blinkers go on first time. ELECTRIC FUSION (2) won well at Sandown last start.
Suggested bet: Inspector each-way.
RACE 4
LAHQA (3) best work was in the closing last 200m when first-up fourth over 1000m behind the smart mare Shakespearean Lass at Flemington. Extra 200m should be ideal and will be suited by the fast speed. THE BIG DANCE (1) won her debut at Bendigo last March like a star before never looking comfortable when she resumed at Moonee Valley where she crashed into the running rail on pulling up. The unstoppable Ellerton/Zahra team has MAGNA ROSSA (7) resumed at Sale swooping home to win easily after showing above average ability in two starts in winter. LADY ESPRIT (2) toyed with her rivals when an easy winner at Sandown.
Suggested bet: Lahqa each-way.
RACE 5
ROUGH JUSTICE (5) has been given plenty of time to get over his tough first-up win over 955m at Moonee Valley. He’s had six starts down the straight for a win, two seconds, two thirds and a fourth and boasts form around some smart horses. Should be able to get a good on speed run. BEAU RADA (6) finished second behind him at Moonee Valley and followed that with a win over the flying FAB FEVOLA (9). DANGER CLOSE (4) and GRANE (1) weren’t suited by the slow early tempo last start at Sandown over 1000m behind Wild Rain but both finished off well. Fab Fevloa will ensure a fast tempo and will take catching. OUR HARMONY (11) is a smart mare who will carry only 51 kilos after three kilos claim for Jake Bayliss.
Suggested bet: Rough Justice the win.
RACE 6
Good effort by SURGE AHEAD (9) last start when he finished on strongly for second to the consistent BLACK SHEEP (5) at Moonee Valley last start. As a three-year-old Surge Ahead was a stakes winner over 1800m when trained by Anthony Cummings and Geelong trainer Vin Malady has him again approaching that form. Black Sheep carries the Weir polish and although he won last start he has put the blinkers on him.
MR PAGO (10) hit the line well when fifth behind A Lotta Love over 1400m here. He’s got more talent than his record suggests. MISS MAGGIEBEEL (14) settled closer when successful at Sandown last start. COUP DE BEEL (7), RIB EYE (11) and THE THUG (3) are all racing well.
Suggested bet: Surge Ahead each-way.
RACE 7
If DURENDAL (5) is to emerge as a potential top liner he should win this. Couldn’t have been more impressive winning this track and distance last start. Took up a handy spot, travelled like the winner throughout and then held off some fast finishers in SARAJEVO (9) and ZUPACHARGED (12) in fast time. Should again be able to control the race. TRIED AND TIRED (3) hits hard at this level and goes well second up. Tried hard when first-up third over 1000m at Sandown. Both Sarajevo and Zupacharged are also good chances but will again have to give Durendal a start. CHRUCHILL DANCER (1) likes the straight but has to contend with 59 kilos. LONROCKSTAR (8) has the talent to win this.
Suggested bet: Durendal the win.
RACE 8
DANJEU (6) took up a good position and won with authority at Sandown last start. That was only his 13th start so he’s still on an upward spiral. Last year the Werribee Cup provided the winner of the Bagot in the runner-up in that race Averau. This year MUJADALE (2) and IMPERIAL LASS (4) had the misfortune of running into potential star Tall Ship in the Werribee Cup but both ran well finishing second and third respectively. This is an easier task. SWACADELIC (5) is racing in good fashion and ran on well when third behind Danjeu at Sandown after beating him at Moonee Valley. SONNTAG (1) has the ability to win this.
Suggested bet: Danjeu the win.
RACE 9
Big effort by DEL PRADO (4) to win first-up coming through the field from well back to defeat smart galloper in Taddei Tondo at Sandown. He’s won three of his last five and has had excuses on the other occasions. Should be reasonable speed which will suit. MR BACKCHAT (11) raced on the speed in that race at Sandown and fought on well in event which was run at a fast clip. BURNING FRONT (3) will again go forward and with Brad Rawiller back on will again take running down.
DOUBLE POCKETS (7) is a consistent Adelaide performer.
Suggested bet: Del Prado the win.
Originally published as The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley previews the Flemington card
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