Cox Plate 2016: Winx’s credentials speak volumes but the ‘new’ Hartnell doesn’t know that
TALE OF THE TAPE: ON the scoreboard it’s a one-horse race — but the betting market for Saturday’s Cox Plate tells a different story.
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ON the scoreboard it’s a one-horse race — but the betting market for Saturday’s Cox Plate tells a different story.
The scoreboard has Winx three-nil over Hartnell; comprehensively, too. In three meetings, Winx has beaten Hartnell by an average margin of six lengths.
WEEKEND WIND-UP: WINX SPREADS WINGS AT VALLEY
The margin between them in last year’s Cox Plate — Winx a runaway winner, Hartnell fifth — was 10 lengths.
But the betting suggests something has changed in recent weeks.
Winx was an odds-on favourite a month ago but now clings to favouritism with the TAB at $2.10, with ever-shortening Hartnell now on her heels at $2.80.
What’s changed? Hartnell.
Last spring’s easybeat has become this season’s revelation.
Hartnell’s first-up second to Winx at Randwick back in August, when he ran her to 3.3 lengths, suggested the imported horse had begun to narrow the gap.
Since, Hartnell has simply scorched.
Winx, outside, cruises in track gallop @TheValley this morning. Chris Waller very happy with the hit-out. @superracing #sheisflying pic.twitter.com/usaZXVJ74k
â Danny Russell (@dannyandrussell) October 14, 2016
Huge margin wins at his last three starts had ratings experts adamant Hartnell had become as good as the champion mare. Some have ranked his wins higher.
Winx held Hartnell’s stablemate Hauraki to just 1.3 lengths at Randwick last month and Godolphin is adamant Hartnell has a big “margin” on Hauraki.
Jameka’s brilliant Caulfield Cup win strengthened the case for Hartnell, who easily beat her in the recent Turnbull Stakes, and edged him even closer to Winx in betting for a Cox Plate that once looked foregone but now shapes as an epic.
WINX VERSUS HARTNELL
WINX
5YO mare
22 starts 16 wins 3 seconds. $7,498,175
LAST THREE STARTS
WON Warwick Stakes (1400m), Randwick August 20. Margin 3.5 lengths, from Hartnell.
WON Colgate Optic (1600m) Randwick September 17. Margin 1.3 lengths.
WON Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m) Caulfield October 8. Margin: 2 lengths.
HARTNELL
6YO gelding
26 starts 10 wins, five seconds. $2,233,999.
LAST THREE STARTS
WON Chelmsford (1600), Randwick September 3. Margin 7.8 lengths.
WON Hill Stakes (1600m) Randwick September 17. Margin 5.8 lengths.
WON Turnbull Stakes (2000m) Flemington October 2. Margin: 3.3 lengths, from Jameka.
HEAD TO HEAD
WINX 3, HARTNELL 0
2015 COX PLATE (October 24): Winx first, Hartnell fifth. Margin: 10 lengths.
2016 CHIPPING NORTON STAKES (February 27) Winx first, Hartnell fifth. Margin: 4.7 lengths.
2016 WARWICK STAKES (August 20). Wins first, Hartnell second. Margin 3.5 lengths
LIKELY COX PLATE FIELD
WINX (Hugh Bowman) $2.10 57kg
HARTNELL (James McDonald) $2.80 59kg
VADAMOS (Joao Moriera) $15 59kg
BLACK HEART BART (Brad Rawiller) $15 59kg
YANKEE ROSE (Dean Yendall) $15 47.5kg
HAURAKI (Craig Williams) $17 59kg
LUCIA VALENTINA (Kerrin McEvoy) $17 57kg
AWESOME ROCK (Steve Baster) $51 59kg
HAPPY CLAPPER (Brenton Avdulla) $51 59kg
SIR ISAAC NEWTON (Colm O’Donoghue) $51 59kg
HAPPY TRAILS (Ben Melham) $101 59kg
Market: TAB Fixed Odds
Yendall: Don’t forget about the Rose
LIGHTWEIGHT jockey Dean Yendall believes the weight advantage over key rivals can help his three-year-old filly Yankee Rose to upstage Winx and Hartnell in Saturday’s Cox Plate.
“She’s got no weight on her back and it’s a big advantage. The way she won last start was full of merit,” Yendall said at Warrnambool races on Sunday.
Yendall rode Yankee Rose to win the Spring Championship Stakes at Randwick and can’t wait to partner her on Saturday.’
“She drops seven kilos on her last start and she’ll have nothing on her back. It’s going to make a difference with the other horses carrying a bigger weight,” he said
Yankee Rose will carry 47.5 kilos on Saturday.
“She travelled really well in the Spring Championship and hit the line really hard.”
“I rode her on Saturday morning at Moonee Valley and she felt enormous,” he said.
Yankee Rose is a $15 chance with TAB fixed odds.
Yendall will ride Yankee Rose at Breakfast With The Best at Moonee Valley on Tuesday.
Darren Weir’s Warrnambool stable foreman Jarrod McLean said Real Love who finished fifth in the Caulfield Cup was galloped on in the run.
“She’ll be fine. She’ll be right for the Lexus Stakes,” McLean said.
McLean said Hellbent who was a late scratching on Saturday had pulled up “a bit stiff and sore” but would also recover quickly.
He said that the two Weir horses who were going to contest Group One races on the weekend Lucky Hussler (Manikato Stakes) and Black Heart Bart (Cox Plate) would gallop at Warrnambool on Tuesday morning.
“Both horses are progressing really well towards their respective races,” McLean said.
Originally published as Cox Plate 2016: Winx’s credentials speak volumes but the ‘new’ Hartnell doesn’t know that