Cox Plate 2015: An even field filled with few winning chances

ON the one hand it’s an even Cox Plate, on the other it’s a Cox Plate seemingly of very few chances, writes Matt Stewart.

Caulfield Guineas Day

ON the one hand it’s an even Cox Plate, on the other it’s a Cox Plate seemingly of very few chances.

As good and consistent as these household name horses are — Fawkner, Happy Trails, Mourinho, The Cleaner — it’s hard to visualise any of them winning.

Stranger things have happened. Few of us imagined Pinker Pinker would win a Cox Plate. Or Savabeel, or Shamus Award.

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It’s hard to imagine Pornichet turning things around and you wonder if Complacent — whose comeback has been pretty spectacular — might lack that killer length to win a Cox Plate.

Chris Waller’s trio Kermadec, Preferment and Winx appear to be in the same boat — are they serious WFA horses or darn good handicappers?

Michael Walker celebrates his win on Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes ahead of Happy Trails. Picture: Colleen Petch

No doubt they are very good horses, but none has really made that often quite large step from handicapper to proven WFA star.

All three can run a blinding sectional at the end of a big handicap race (or set weights and penalties) but can any show that extra dimension to dominate at WFA?

Kermadec won the George Main at WFA but beat a handicapper (Royal Descent) in doing so. He ran on OK in the Caulfield Stakes last start but lacked that killer turn of foot of Criterion.

Preferment is a former Victoria Derby winner who won the Turnbull last start but the Turnbull isn’t always won by WFA horses, more often classy Cups horses.

You’d imagine Chris Waller has one eye on the Plate, the other on the Melbourne Cup with Preferment.

Waller’s heart may have sunk just a little when Winx drew barrier one.

Winx was a dominant winner in the Epsom Handicap. Picture: AAP

Winx has a gangbuster, down-the-outside finish that might find itself interrupted by having to weave a passage from the inside alley.

She must also prove she can produce that blinding finish in a race that’s energy sapping from the get-go.

Adelaide made us wary of future raiders when he looped the field last year. It’s hard to get a firm gauge on Arod, Gailo Chop and Highland Reel other than that they have been running in truly A-grade international races and can all race handy to the speed.

Hartnell is interesting.

Preferment won the Turnbull Stakes but may be better suited in the Melbourne Cup. Picture: Colleen Petch

He was super dominant in the autumn but as out-of-form Contributer (and Noble Protector) have proven, autumn dominators don’t always pick up where they left off.

But Hartnell proved in the Turnbull — gliding home on a leader-biased track after drawing wide — that he had returned as well as ever.

From a good alley he will get a gun run in about fifth or sixth and looks to be peaking. Criterion is a street-smart globetrotter. He will invariably run well.

The Cleaner is courageous and better than last year. He can’t win but he can give $18 chance Hartnell something to chase down.

Originally published as Cox Plate 2015: An even field filled with few winning chances