The Everest: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse every runner in the world’s richest race on turf
THE TAB Everest just might be the most competitive feature race in years — the bookies can’t work out who will start favourite. Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy analyse the field.
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THE Daily Telegraph’s Racing Editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse the $13 million TAB Everest at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
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THE TAB Everest just might be the most competitive feature race in years — the bookies can’t work out who will start favourite in Saturday’s $13 million race and a case can be made for each of the 12 sprinters in the field.
“The marketplace doesn’t lie,’’ Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy said.
“The Everest is $7 the field and the bolter is $21. When the market percentages get a bit tighter and the real betting starts, the favourites could be closer to $10 because as a soon as a horse gets out to $21, punters start backing it in.
“I’d love to say we can bet against this horse or that horse, but I can’t. It is so wide open, it’s a great race.’’
THE RUNDOWN
STRENGTHS: Redzel has an admirable racing pattern, boasts brilliant gate speed and can either lead or settle on pace. He is equally effective on wet and dry tracks, and won The Everest third-up last spring.
WEAKNESSES: He had a setback after a brilliant first-up Concorde Stakes win and missed a vital lead-up in The Shorts. He tended to over-race in front when unplaced in the Premiere, setting up a track-record time by Santa Ana Lane.
SLOTHOLDER: Yulong Investments is the business run by Chinese billionaire Zhang Yuesheng who has interests in coal mining, wind farms, chemicals and hotels. He also has a real passion for thoroughbred racing and breeding.
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Dufficy: Let’s face it, he is the defending champion and Team Snowden is renowned for preparing their horses for the big day. Often their horses will run in the final lead-up race and it may not be their best effort. But they peak for Grand Final Day. He should not be discounted on his last-start effort as he was softened up early when running course-record time up front. He was off a small setback. He won the Everest third-up last year and has had a similar preparation this time. His wet-track form is good and his racing style and adaptability will take him a long way.
Thomas: Redzel is the reigning Everest champ and was voted the nation’s best sprinter last season. He looked back to his brilliant best in the Concorde Stakes and I agree you have to forgive his failure in the Premiere Stakes. The barrier draw is the key – from the inside gate he is going to settle on speed without having to do too much work. He excels on rain-affected tracks and is a proven big-race performer.
*****
STRENGTHS: He has a powerful finishing sprint and should be suited by the expected frenetic up-front tempo. Tough sprinter and handles all track surfaces.
WEAKNESSES: Likes to settle back in his races so needs luck in running. There is a suspicion he is better at 1400m.
SLOTHOLDER: William Inglis has been the leading thoroughbred auctioneers for 150 years and is a central player in the Australian racing and breeding industry.
Dufficy: I can’t believe the turnaround in his form over the past 12 months since winning the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes this time last year. He has since won the Goodwood and Stradbroke Handicap, and the Premiere Stakes last start. His soft and heavy track form is as good as any, and he is lethal third-up. He is in impeccable form and primed for the day. It will all come down to the conditions and how the track plays on the day, but, on paper, it should set up well for him.
Thomas: Comes off a course-record-breaking win over the Everest 1200m trip – and he is equally as effective on rain-affected tracks. This race sets up perfectly for him, with the expected fast early tempo giving backmarkers like him their chance. He has tremendous finishing speed and is more than capable of winning this race.
*****
STRENGTHS: Has good gate speed and can usually take up a forward position out of trouble. He thrives under big-race pressure and goes into The Everest off a competitive showing against the great Winx. Suited by all types of track conditions but is particularly effective on wet tracks. He has a decision over Chautauqua in a thriller on a heavy track in the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes.
WEAKNESSES: His best distance range is probably 1400-1600m and it remains to be seen if he is sharp enough to match it with the more brilliant Everest hopefuls.
SLOTHOLDER: Max Whitby and Neil Werrett, both successful businessman in their own right, joined forces with their Everest slot. Whitby has raced many outstanding horses over the years, including Cox Plate winner and now champion sire Savabeel, and Werrett is famous as the part-owner of the mighty mare Black Caviar, undefeated winner of her 25 starts.
Dufficy: Arguably the toughest horse in the race. He is coming back from a 1600m race where he ran second to Winx, and you can’t beat Winx form. His Randwick 1200m form is great and he is the best wet-tracker in the field. If it was a really heavy track on the day, he will be hard to beat. He might be the bolter of the field — that tells you something about the depth of this race. He is the longshot of the race but he has a real chance and you can’t say that too often.
Thomas: Le Romain is an admirable warhorse and although he is the rank outsider, he is not out of this race by any means. He has been top-two in 12 of his 16 starts at Randwick and revels in soft and heavy going. The draw hasn’t been kind, but if he slides across the field early and settles on pace without having to work too hard, he will be in this for a long way.
*****
STRENGTHS: He usually is effective third-up from a spell, often producing peak performances, such as his runaway Golden Rose win last year. He’s a two-time Group 1 winner at Randwick.
WEAKNESSES: The wet track is not his preferred racing surface, although he has won on a soft track and been placed in heavy going.
SLOTHOLDER: Aquis Stud is wholly owned by the Hong Kong-based Fung family and has a range of tourism, property and gaming-focused assets, plus a growing racing and breeding empire in Australia. Aquis chairman Tony Fung has more than 40 years’ experience in global finance services and investment.
Dufficy: I look at him and think the wet track might be against him but when you delve into his wet-track form, it is not too bad. They key to him is being third-up into The Everest. He’s dynamic third-up, winning a Black Opal and Golden Rose, and running third in a strong Randwick Guineas behind Kementari and Pierata. Gerald Ryan knows his horse and has trained him that way. He is suited here and ready to go.
Thomas: His campaign has been tailored for The Everest. His two runs back this spring have been good and this is a horse that runs to pattern – his third-up runs each campaign are monstrous. His first-up run this spring in the Theo Marks was on a heavy track, he carried 61kg and he was competitive finishing third, which is encouraging given The Everest will be run on a rain-affected track. I’m confident he is a top-three finisher.
*****
STRENGTHS: Powerful sprinter with a high cruising speed. If the race is run to suit, he could dominate this race. The blinkers are going on, which suits him.
WEAKNESSES: He has won twice on soft tracks but the worst run of his career came on a soft 6 in the Goodwood. Untried in heavy conditions.
SLOTHOLDER: James Harron is a renowned judge of a yearling and bought 2016 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist. He has a number of leading thoroughbred investors in his slot. He also selected eventual winner Redzel to race in his Everest slot last year.
Dufficy: I don’t think it is any secret he should have won this race last year, and he has been carefully looked after since with this race in mind. He doesn’t look the easiest horse to ride as he can be aggressive in his races, but if he conserves his energy early I rate him as good as any sprinter in the land. His inexperience on wet tracks is the question mark, although he has two soft-6 wins to his credit. He flopped in the Goodwood but I think it was more to do with the shifting surface that day. He ran over 1400m in the Memsie Stakes last start and is coming back to 1200m for The Everest. That will stand him in good stead for such a high-pressure sprint. He has as much ability as any of these sprinters but just needs a few things to go his way.
Thomas: Has loads of talent but his form can be a little up and down. In saying that, there has been a lot of merit in his two runs this spring, romping away with the Bletchingly Stakes then running fourth in the Memsie Stakes, beaten less than a half length when there were excuses for that loss. He has been given virtually the same program as last year and looks to be ready to run another big race. The blinkers go back on, too.
*****
STRENGTHS: A proven topliner, Brave Smash has been trained specifically for The Everest this Saturday, unlike last year. His three runs this spring have shown he is in top form.
WEAKNESSES: He does have a modest winning strike-rate and his best form is over further. Better suited on a firm track.
SLOTHOLDER: Chris Waller Racing brings together the nation’s premier trainer and some of his some of his major stable clients, including Winx’s part-owners Debbie Kepitis and Peter Tighe, to pool their resources into an Everest slot.
Dufficy: Has been beautifully handled coming into this race. This preparation he has been showing more consistency than he has ever shown. He was good in this race last year, his two wet-track runs have been good and he has a confident jockey in Hugh Bowman, who has been talking him up. I’m convinced he will be the one they will all be looking out for in the last 100m.
Thomas: Brave Smash ran third in The Everest last year when he wasn’t really trained for the race. The big difference this time is that Darren Weir has had a single focus on The Everest for months. His form is better than last year and his Moir Stakes second placing was a beauty. There is a quiet confidence in the Brave Smash camp that he can win.
*****
STRENGTHS: He won England’s two biggest juvenile races last season and earlier this year beat the older horses in the July Cup. He is a tough, talented young sprinter, absorbs pressure and is determined.
WEAKNESSES: This is his first start in Australia and the stable is concerned he will struggle on the wet track.
SLOTHOLDER: Coolmore is a powerhouse of world racing and breeding and it wanted in The Everest almost as soon as details of the race were announced.
Dufficy: Most rival camps are nervous of this Irish raider. Trainer Aidan O’Brien needs no introduction. He won a Cox Plate first-up with a three-year-old called Adelaide and his son Joseph won the Melbourne Cup with another three-year-old first-up, Rekindling, last spring. We have to take notice of this stable and this horse. He has speed, as he showed winning the July Cup. I would have preferred a drier track for him. I don’t know how to approach him but you have to respect this stable.
Thomas: US Navy Flag is the great unknown of this race. He is a three-time Group 1 winner so he is obviously a sprinter of outstanding ability. Aidan O’Brien travels his horses all over the world and wins Group 1 races, so US Navy Flag has to be rated highly. The stable is concerned about the rain-affected track, but for an on-pacer, the three barrier is perfect.
*****
STRENGTHS: She is a mare capable of running brilliant time. She can race anywhere in a field and is proven on soft tracks. Her second-up record is very good.
WEAKNESSES: The concern is she has never been exposed to a heavy track. Her best chance will be if the track is rated soft or better.
SLOTHOLDER: Tabcorp, the nation’s wagering and gaming giant, is invested in The Everest as a slot-holder and major race sponsor.
Dufficy: Stiff not to get a run last year, as she showed winning the Sydney Stakes on Everest Day in a faster time than inaugural Everest winner Redzel. Her second-up form is good: winning the Sydney Stakes last spring, second in the Stradbroke, when unlucky, and third in a TJ Smith. I would prefer her on a dry track to show her brilliance, but she has learned to handle soft tracks with age. She won The Galaxy on a soft track. The barrier draw is important as she can take a nice smother on pace and be ready to explode at the right time.
Thomas: Her first-up effort in the Premiere Stakes was stunning. If that race has not taken too much out of her, she has to be one of the main chances. She can handle soft track conditions, she excels at Randwick and over this trip. I don’t mind her barrier (eight) as I can envisage Corey Brown sliding across early, finding cover and giving the mare the sweet run.
*****
STRENGTHS: Her preparation has been faultless, she is extremely versatile and is unbeaten on soft and heavy tracks. She enjoys Randwick and 1200m seems her optimum distance.
WEAKNESSES: There aren’t any obvious weaknesses in this mare, except her major race wins have been against her own sex.
SLOT-HOLDER: The Star Entertainment Group has extensive business interests in casinos and hotels and they were immediately attracted to the marketing and advertising appeal of the Everest as a slot-holder.
Dufficy: Shoals ticks a lot of boxes. I loved the way she paraded the other day. Her trainer Anthony Freedman has Shoals and Santa Ana Lane set up perfectly for this race. Shoals is a top-class mare, handles all conditions and her second placing to Santa Ana Lane in the Premiere Stakes was an eye-catching effort. Her Sangster and Surround Stakes wins last preparation were incredible and both were on soft tracks. Her only heavy run was a win in the Percy Sykes Stakes. She is peaking on the right day. Hard to beat.
Thomas: Shoals is versatile and can race anywhere in the field, but from barrier two I can see her tucking in behind Redzel and getting the run of the race. She is a triple Group 1 winner so there is no doubting her class. Both her runs this spring have been excellent and she handles all track conditions. What is not to like about Shoals?
*****
STRENGTHS: She is right back to her best, as evidenced by her Moir Stakes effort, beating Everest rival Brave Smash. She has finished top two in 16 of her 27 starts and is genuine.
WEAKNESSES: The worst run of her career came on a soft 6 in the Goodwood in May, so a heavy track could be an issue. She tends to get back in her races so will need luck in running.
SLOTHOLDER: Damion Flower has been a leading Sydney owner for two decades and has raced a number of topliners, including Snitzel and Clangalang.
Dufficy: Her Goodwood failure on a soft 6 was her only poor run and I’m convinced it was due to the shifty track. She just wasn’t herself, and that was the race Vega Magic also failed in, so I am putting it down to the unusual surface that day. Viddora is the pride of South Australia and she was brilliant winning the Group 1 Moir Stakes when resuming last start. Her jockey Joe Bowditch knows her so well and has so much confidence in the mare. Her soft track form is acceptable and if this hot speed eventuates, that is when she is at her best. She is proven this way of going, winning the Magic Millions Sprint brilliantly earlier this year.
Thomas: Viddora was so impressive in the Moir Stakes. She swept around the field on the bend and commanded the race. This mare likes to settle back in her races so don’t be put off by her wide draw. She goes into The Everest as a last-start Group 1 winner and the likelihood of a solid race tempo provides her with the opportunity to unleash from the back. The query I have is if the track gets into the heavy range.
*****
STRENGTHS: Adaptable enough to be ridden on speed or off a fast tempo. He has a strong finish and goes to an Everest off a tough 1400m run. Handles soft and heavy tracks.
WEAKNESSES: Has youth and inexperience. He has raced only five times and is yet to win at a higher level than Group 3. He gets into the race with only 53kg but has to take on older, seasoned sprinters.
SLOTHOLDER: GPI Racing is the ownership banner of Greg Ingham, a member of the famous Ingham family that has been a dominant force in Australian racing and breeding for more than 50 years. Ingham has also had his share of success as a part-owner of champion sprinter Chautauqua.
Dufficy: Adds a lot of interest being a three-year-old with no weight. There were obvious excuses in the Golden Rose last start when he lost his spot early. The question I have with him is can he keep up in a high-pressure race? If he can, then he is certainly right in this race. His soft track form is OK and considering a couple of fillies were competitive in this race last year, he deserves respect. He is a big, strong colt and is ready for the challenge.
Thomas: The first three-year-old colt to contest an Everest. The weight-for-age conditions means he carries only 53kg, which is an advantage for this powerful young sprinter. Graff comes out of a strong Golden Rose, where he was a touch unlucky. He’s drawn a little wide but it is expected they will be aggressive on him, make use of his light weight and negate his barrier.
*****
STRENGTHS: Consistent, genuine and very talented, Osborne Bulls has been a work in progress at Godolphin for the last couple of years. He is still very lightly-raced but has loads of talent and blinding acceleration.
WEAKNESSES: He is yet to prove himself at the top level although his fast finishing fifth in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield was a very good, luckless effort. He’s never been tested on heavy ground but is unbeaten in two soft track attempts.
SLOTHOLDER: The Australian Turf Club took a slot and support the world’s richest turf race held on its own famous Royal Randwick racetrack.
Dufficy: Has emerged at the last minute with the scratching of Home Of The Brave. Osborne Bulls has come of age this year, winning four races, his latest win two starts back in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes at Caulfield. He is a genuine type whose only two starts on soft tracks have resulted in wins. Although this is his stiffest test, you would think he is the best replacement.
Thomas: I’m a big fan of Osborne Bulls, he’s a classy sprinter albeit unproven at this level. He didn’t have the best of luck last start at Group 1 level over 1400m, but he was closing strongly late. Trainer James Cummings has taken this sprinter along slowly through the grades but he is ready for the big leagues now. He has a consistent record and handles rain-affected tracks.
THE EVEREST — WHO WILL WIN?
Ray Thomas
THE HISTORY
There are 10 individual Group 1 winners in the field, nine of which won majors last season. The other is Le Romain, a three-time Group 1 winner, who was placed three times at the top level during 2017-18. This compares with seven individual Group 1 winners in the inaugural Everest field last year. Redzel won the 2017 Everest after claiming the Concorde Stakes and The Shorts in is two lead-up races. Redzel won the Concorde when resuming this spring but missed The Shorts after suffering a slight setback in training. He then ran fifth in the Premiere Stakes. The only Everest runner this year to come out of The Shorts is Brave Smash. He ran on well when third to Ball Of Muscle in The Shorts then went even better when closing late for second to Viddora in the Moir Stakes.
THE KEY LEAD-UP RACES
PREMIERE STAKES, ROYAL RANDWICK, SEPTEMBER 29
The most significant lead-up race to The Everest produced a classic finish with Santa Ana Lane coming from near last on the turn to rail through and score a narrow win over Shoals and In Her Time in a three-way thriller. Santa Ana Lane ran the 1200m in 1m 7.45s, a new course record time, Shoals had to come wide and make her run down the centre of the track to run an outstanding second. In Her Time was first-up from a spell and she was very brave in defeat. Trapeze Artist kept working to the line and was less than two lengths from the winner on the line while early leader Redzel did concede ground in the straight to finish fifth.
GOLDEN ROSE, ROSEHILL SEPTEMBER 22
The Autumn Sun announced himself as the nation’s most outstanding three-year-old with a stunning last-to-first effort. His ability to unleash a late surge from the 300m to swamp Zousain late is the reason he is favourite for the Caulfield Guineas tomorrow. The only Golden Rose runner to line-up in The Everest is third placegetter, Graff. He was expected to settle closer to the early lead but drifted back and was second last into the straight. Graff got out wide and ran on well for third although he couldn’t match The Autumn Sun’s finishing sprint.
FAVOURITES
The Everest is wide open with a remarkable four co-favourites at $7 – Redzel, Trapeze Artist, Vega Magic and Shoals. Santa Ana Lane $8 and US Navy Flag $8.50 are also pressing for favouritism. The rank outsider is Le Romain at $21 but he is still a definite chance in this race. Redzel won the inaugural Everest last year as a $8.50 chance, defeating race favourite Vega Magic ($4.80) by three-quarters of a length with Brave Smash third and all three placegetters are back tomorrow.
SPEED MAP
Redzel has drawn the inside barrier and is such a brilliant beginner he should be able to hold the rail and can lead if required. But jockey Kerrin McEvoy will not want Redzel to go too hard in front as happened in the Premiere and if another rider is keen to roll forward, he could easily take a sit. US Navy Flag has gate three and his usual racing pattern is to settle on speed. Vega Magic is another with good gate speed and he will go forward but his rider is likely to try and find cover as the sprinter can over-race. Graff is drawn out in gate 10 but it is expected his jockey will be aggressive out of the barriers to try and negate his wide draw. The pace should be genuine.
TRAINERS
Trainer Kris Lees has a record-equalling three runners in The Everest on Saturday – In Her Time, Graff and Le Romain. Lees had Clearly Innocent start in the race last year, finishing eighth. The training partnership of David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig had three Everest runners with Vega Magic finishing a close second and Tulip fifth. The stable has Vega Magic back again this year. Peter and Paul Snowden prepared the inaugural Everest winner with Redzel and they are back tomorrow with a real opportunity to go back-to-back.
JOCKEYS
Kerrin McEvoy, Brenton Avdulla, Tim Clark, Hugh Bowman, Corey Brown and Tye Angland all rode in The Everest last year and have rides in the big race on Saturday. McEvoy won on Redzel last year and links with the sprinter again. English superstar jockey Ryan Moore is making the trip down under to ride Coolmore’s US Navy Flag. Another English rider, Jamie Spencer competed in the inaugural Everest and rode Brave Smash into the minor placings.
BARRIERS
Redzel came out of barrier four to win the inaugural Everest and he has drawn to suit again in gate one. Shoals comes out of two and should get the run of the race. Le Romain and Graff are drawn out wide and will need to do some work early. Viddora has the extreme outside gate but she tends to settle back in the field. The 1200m is a fair start at Randwick but it is advantageous to draw an inside barrier.
AND THE VERDICT IS …
Shoals is an outstanding mare and effective on all track surfaces. She is particularly adept on soft and heavy going where she is unbeaten in three attempts. Her preparation for The Everest has been hard to fault – she ran on well for third to Nature Strip over 1000m at Moonee Valley then finished strongly and just missed in the Premiere Stakes won by her stablemate Santa Ana Lane in track record time. From her good draw, she can settle closer, stalking the leaders and be in a position to strike from the turn. She will be in the finish.
Redzel is going to be hard to beat in his Everest defence. He’s drawn the inside barrier and can control the tempo in front or take a sit if a rival is desperate to lead. Either way, Redzel is going to get the right run, he has an exceptional Randwick record and revels in rain-affected conditions.
Trapeze Artist tried hard in the Premiere Stakes when beaten less than two lengths into fourth placing (Redzel was fifth) last start. Both his runs since resuming have been solid and his third-up runs each preparation tend to be his best efforts. Barrier six is perfect ensuring Trapeze Artist settles in the front half of the field and he rates as one of the main chances.
In Her Time ran a blinder first-up in the Premiere to be edged out in a three-way photo. If she can take some improvement off that run, then she can win The Everest.
Santa Ana Lane will be charging from the back and Vega Magic, runner-up in this race last year, seems to be going as well as ever. US Navy Flag has a huge reputation, Brave Smash will have his admirers, Graff has the natural ability to run well and Le Romain excels on wet tracks. What a race!
RAY TIPS
1. SHOALS
2. Redzel
3. Trapeze Artist
4. In Her Time
Best Roughie: Graff