SuperCoach Racing: Who do you need from the Melbourne Cup in your stable?
Let’s be honest, the nine other races on Melbourne Cup Day have never really carried much significance, but this year there is opportunity to take advantage of strategy to maximise the best returns from the ten races in this stand-alone round.
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Let’s be honest, outside of the Melbourne Cup, the nine other races on Melbourne Cup Day have never really carried much significance, but this year there is opportunity for SuperCoach stables to take advantage of their own strategy to maximise the best returns from the ten races at Flemington in this stand-alone round.
There’s only one G1 race and two others are G3s. That means seven races on the day at listed / other in SuperCoach-land.
MELBOURNE CUP
The race that stops a nation, the pinnacle of our sport – whatever it means to you, so be it. But what it means to SuperCoaches is going to be a heck of a lot more if we’re able to correctly tip the winner in the hardest race to tip, let alone get our captain choice correct.
This is by far and wide the toughest, most wide-open race. 24 horses racing across 3200m – never has correctly selecting the winner of a race in SuperCoach been more important given it is the only G1 race of the day. In this race, there’s plenty to be said about going in with three or four selections, but that choice is a personal one. I will likely have three myself.
Let’s start with last years winner, CROSS COUNTER ($475,000) who took home the Cup with 51kgs but, in the 2019 edition, will have to shoulder a weight of 57.5kg to go back-to-back. The form for Cross Counter has been good; he’s raced only on four occasions since winning the coveted Dubai Gold Cup and was fourth in the Irish St Leger last start which is a terrific form guide. A fine Godolphin five-year-old but it’s at top weight.
CONSTANTINOPLE ($425,000) will see my favourite jockey in the world – Joao ‘Magic Man’ Moreira – on board as pilot. If you were watching the Caulfield Cup, then it might be one of the best fourth-placed ‘victories’ you’ll see. After copping a monster check at the 600m and getting held up in the straight, it barnstormed home to nab fourth and it would’ve won if it wasn’t interfered with. But that’s racing! My only concern is that beyond the 2400m it has not placed; that, and I wonder if this is a year too soon. He’s a bit immature.
DOWNDRAFT ($275,000) raced in the Lexus Stakes on Derby Day and won it but I’m not sure I’m a fan of the quick turnaround but others think it won’t matter. At that price and carrying only 53.5kgs, he must be considered for stables. Also at that price point is IL PARADISO who I’ll start out by saying is the son of Galileo. He’s lightly raced but he was placed in the Lonsdale Cup at York at this type of distance two back and is under the watchful eye of Aiden O’Brien.
Japanese sensation MER DE GLACE ($350,000) has to be included on price point alone, even if it is carrying 56kgs which its camp is totally unconcerned about. While I rate it, I’m just not sure if it can run out the step-up in distance.
FINCHE ($400,000) went in favourite into last year’s cup and finished fourth but, truthfully, it looks better favoured this year than last. It won at Randwick three back before narrowly being beaten in the Turnbull Stakes and wasn’t too far off in the Caulfield Cup last start, either. Chris Waller is a master and with dual Melbourne Cup-winning hoop Kerrin McEvoy aboard, Finche is going to be up in the pointy end of the race on Tuesday afternoon.
If you’re after a cheapie, then NEUFBOSC ($150,000) might be for you, but it’s paying $251 in the market, so that’s all I can really speak to about that. It’s done close to nothing in its last five Australian starts and probably should’ve stayed at home.
By this stage, you will have realised that this is an international field, but one hometown hero you might want to consider is SURPRISE BABY ($350,000). Paul Preusker, a country Victorian trainer born and bred in Horsham, approximately 2.5 hours northwest of Melbourne, is the man behind Surprise Baby. You might’ve heard the story about his five-year-old gelding, but this is a true blue, Australian feel-good story that might just surprise us all on Cup Day. It won entry into the Cup by winning the Bart Cummings, and this is a horse who loves the paddocks, gets led around by Preusker on a quad bike, likes the hard work, and is a great country hope.
PRINCE OF ARRAN ($350,000) is as tough and as stubborn as they come in staying races and finished third in the 2018 edition of the Melbourne Cup. Its form has been fantastic in the lead into the Cup and it has drawn the third-most successful barrier (8) which has delivered five wins in Cup history. Cuzzy Walker is atop the Charlie Fellows British hope, and that’s a good combination for me!
With all that being said, VOW AND DECLARE ($300,000) is my first-picked in this race. It’s the other Australian hope that put in a huge performance winning the Tattersall’s Cup at Eagle Farm during the winter and his two runs this prep have been really positive. He finished fourth in the Turnbull Stakes and a length second in the Caulfield Cup. Well priced in SuperCoach and in the markets the chestnut is at $12.
THE OTHER GROUP RACES
The G3 Ottawa Stakes is a good way to kick off Cup Day. DIVINE CAPRICE ($125,000) had no luck whatsoever at Flemington on debut before having genuine excuses when it was a beaten favourite at Flemington last start and this honestly looks like his chance to break through for that elusive win. MARCHENA ($125,000) is the daughter of Deep Field who has to be respected after finishing runner-up in her lead-up trial at Cranbourne. CUT IT OUT ($100,000) led before finishing third at Flemington on debut and it rates a winning chance with the benefit of race experience.
Race 6 is another G3 chances and this one could be interesting. SWEET SCANDAL ($250,000) overcame a wide run in transit to win at Randwick resuming before placing in the Northwood Plume at Caulfield last start. She’s peaking third-up and worth noting she is unbeaten in two runs at the same stage of preparation. INTO THE ABYSS ($200,000) found some really good rhythm at Warwick Farm two back before placing in the Black Pearl at Geelong last start and I’m expecting her to be in the finish again. JAMAICAN RAIN ($300,000) is a horse I really like, but not at this price in SuperCoach and in a G3. A case for cheapie LA TIGERESA ($175,000) can be made given it won super well at Moe on a heavy track last start so keep an eye on the weather radar. If it looks like it could be a wet day (which is frequent on Cup Day), then La Tigeresa comes into play as a big winning chance.
EVERYTHING ELSE
Race 2
PHAISTOS ($175,000) is in the Godolphin blue. Say no more! EAST INDIAMAN ($200,000) led all the way to win at Cranbourne last start this trip. WILLIAM THOMAS ($200,000) was a Caulfield winner resuming three back and has been close up in two subsequent outings at Cranbourne and Moonee Valley. BRAVO TANGO ($200,000) only has to run out a strong 1400m to be in the finish.
Race 3
SURE KNEE ($200,000) only needs even luck in running here to be right in the finish. SEEWHATSHEBRINGS ($175,000) won successive races at her first two runs back at Kyneton and Bendigo before going down narrowly in the Group II Tesio Stakes at Moonee Valley last start. ROMANI GIRL ($175,000) has returned to racing in great order but will need a touch of luck from the gate. ARISTOCRATIC MISS ($200,000) won at The Valley two back and was less than three lengths from the winner in the Ladies Day Vase at Caulfield last start. Down in the weights, too!
Race 4
SHARED AMBITION ($200,000) is a Chris Waller-trained import who is unbeaten in his two Australian starts winning successive races at Caulfield. CREEDENCE ($175,000) was well beaten in the Bendigo Cup but form before then is enough to suggest that might have been an odd race. You will have seen SIN TO WIN ($225,000) around the SuperCoach traps who has now had three runs back from a spell and is ready for the 2800m. KENTUCKY DIVA ($150,000) has placed in two of its last four and the blinkers are on for the first time.
Race 5
ATHIRI ($150,000) is the one to beat over the shorter journey. SIZZLEFLY ($175,000) has won three from seven with all the wins coming in the 1000m-1050m distance range. CAN'T BE DONE ($150,000) resumes without a trial but had two wins and two seconds from five runs in his first preparation. HEARTY LASS ($125,000) was a Valley winner two back and wasn't far from the winner at the same track last start.
Race 8
SO YOU WIN ($275,000) has been placed two of last four and was less than three lengths from the winner when fourth in the Cranbourne Cup last start. DEALMAKER ($175,000) was well beaten at Rosehill on Saturday but 1800m at Flemington looks ideal. JUNIPAL ($200,000) was a Randwick winner three back before finishing down the track in the Epsom. A SHIN ROOK ($250,000) won the Gold Nugget at Ballarat two back before finishing runner up in the Seymour Cup last start.
Race 9
Racing enthusiasts will be very happy to see the return of ROYAL SYMPHONY ($300,000) who hasn't raced for over two years and has had no official trial. This horse was incredible and could well and truly pull one out of the bag here but at that price for low points, perhaps not. PARSIFAL ($200,000) is chasing back-to-back wins after winning at Moonee Valley last start. HAUNTED ($250,000) made it seven wins from 19 starts winning the Village Stakes at Caulfield last race. LAGERFELD ($200,000) is chasing a hat trick of wins after successive victories at Geelong and the Valley.
Race 10
XILONG ($125,000) has won three from four in South Australia including successive wins at Morphettville both runs this prep. A Tony McEvoy-trained horse knows what it takes to win in Melbourne. $100,000 cheapie AKARI was placed in the Listed Woodlands Stakes at Scone in its first two preparation runs and has won her last two at Wyong and Randwick. PRETTY BRAZEN ($125,000) has started to hit her straps winning her last two at Bendigo and Caulfield and is peaking third-up. Cheapie of the day MAYAASEH ($75,000) was placed in the Listed Reginald Allen at Randwick last start and could do something here.
JOCKEY SELECTION
You absolutely cannot knock the form of Damien Oliver who saluted with 11 points last round. He’s got the ride on MUSTAJEER in the Cup. There’s also a case for Kerrin McEvoy who only managed two points last round is aboard one of the favourites in FINCH for the big race. Craig Williams must be considered given he has the ride on VOW AND DECLARE. All jockeys are looking at a full book of rides too!
Originally published as SuperCoach Racing: Who do you need from the Melbourne Cup in your stable?