Sydney: Comprehensive preview of every race at Rosehill

A COMPREHENSIVE preview of every race for Saturday’s meeting at Rosehill with Shayne O’Cass

Better Not Blue. Picture: Mark Evans

NOTE: RACES are assessed for a Heavy 8 with the chance of an upgrade. All horses are considered starters unless notified by Thursday at 1PM. (N/R) denotes no rating.

RACE 1

WILLY Jimmy’s half-sister 11. SUGAR BELLA (N/R) was quite awesome winning at home at Goulburn on debut when backed in to $2.70 off a pretty impressive trial win the previous month. In short, the daughter of NASD was a long way off the leader in a strung out field, came to the outside and just ran over the top of them. She was essentially eased down late, ears pricked, all in all she was classes above them. Harder here naturally — but Danny Williams knows which horses to bring to town and which ones to not. 5. TUMULTUOUS (N/R) is a superbly bred Fastnet Rock filly out of Silk Stocking winner Boisterous Lady whose nine foals to the races include Rena’s Lady (G1 winner), Vatuvei (G2 winner) and Raise (G3 winner). This Waller filly was okay on debut at the midweeks (1100m) then went down to Kembla for start two and was really good (1400m) beating the moderately handy Regenesis and Wednesday's WF winner Dynastic Lady. 1. MORTON’S FORK (N/R) has done nothing wrong per se but barrier 10, top weight, shortish odds — hmmm, maybe more fun to have a shy at the stumps on the Goulburn filly IMO.

RACE 2

GERALD Ryan probably holds the key here with his two runners, one of which is $4.20, the other is $11 on the TAB Fixed Odds (Thursday morning 9am). Me? I like the one at the double figures namely 7 TENORINO (68) over the more favoured 1. SUBORIC (76). I should also say at this point that I actually have 5. LOUIE SEA KAY (68) as the main threat to Tenorino with his near faultless form and the soft draw. As for Tenorino, I have followed him from day one at the trials mainly because I find his pedigree so interesting. He’s by Galileo out of a Danehill Dancer daughter of a mare called Pipalong (G1 winner in the UK) and was Champion Female Sprinter in both GB (twice) and France. You know with that pedigree that he is going to get better with each passing start and that is borne out by the fact that he ‘x221’ this prep. Harder here but gee I like the way he pulled away from them very late in that win last start. As mentioned, Louis Sea Kay is going super, ditto and then some for Suboric who is three straight this prep and overcame difficultly to win at the t/d on Jul. 2.

RACE 3

1. STAR SHAFT (67) lines-up for his sixth TAB Highway from his last nine starts. His record in the previous five is (in chronological order); 1st, 6th, 5th, 2nd and 3rd. Interestingly, this is his first TAB Highway away from Randwick but no worries about this venue — his only run here was a neck 3rd over this same 1200m trip. Drawn well in 5, has a 2kgs claim and seems adept on slow/heavy. 4. DEALS ‘N’ DIAMONDS (57) is trained by Matthew Dale who has won his share of Highways, certainly in the early days of the concept. Dale travels up from Canberra with this sparingly-raced but well credentialed son of Commands who is 4s 1-2-0 so far despite turning 7YO in a few weeks. Certainly won't have any issue if it’s wet given he won at home on the heavy 10 by 4-lens last start. 7. BID OF FAITH (58) is one of seven horses in the race housed at Canberra, this one from the Keith Dryden camp. The Zizou 3YO has run some quite credible races in town before and has been placed at two of her three Highway attempts in the past, one of them a 3rd to Star Shaft.

RACE 4

YOU know the old expression ‘ has their hoof on the till’? Seriously, does it apply more to any horse racing at Rosehill tomorrow than 5. THURSTON (69)? Methinks not. The O’Reilly son has been with Chris Waller for three runs. His first two were Super Impose-like. His third and most recent one, surely below that but bear in mind he has gone 1400m/1800m back to 1500m. The ‘coming back in distance’ wasn’t in his favour last start BUT going to 2000m this weekend certainly is. Remember, not only is the horse out of a Zabeel mare, he was placed in a 2400m Australia Day Cup at his final run under the Bryce Heys banner. 9. DURE (66) has been a bit better in reality than his last two runs would indicate. He’s been closing off nicely at each run, one of them a 4th to Tucanchoo at HQ, the other to Get On The Grange (won again since) and Lie Direct (2nd in town since) in a WF midweeker. Comfortable at the trip and is a very good wet tracker. 3. SONG AND LAUGHTER (75) is a good mare on her day and those best days are usually when the track is wet. Jim Litt, the ex-dairy farmer from Taranaki, has her going great guns and this is a logical/.perfect race for the daughter of the immensely underrated Song Of Tara. I have to say I am bit flummoxed by 8. ESTEBAN (69) who has won her last two at Beaumont by 7.5-lens and 6.8-lens.

RACE 5

FIVE of the 14 acceptors come out of the Wine ‘N’ Dine race from Jul. 2 here over the same 1500m including the winner (Wine ‘N’ Dine) and the runner-up 2. FINAL DECISION (76). I reckon they might go one-two again only in reverse order now. Look, all honours to Wine ‘N’ Dine — not many horses win their 67th start in town but I think had Final Decision had a totally clear passage up the straight, he might have made it very interesting. I was looking at Wine ‘N’ Dine’s form closely and pondering whether it is important that he has never won back to back before. Maybe it is significant. As for Final Decision, he has some compelling numbers behind him like 8s 1-2-1 at the track, 6s 1-2-1 at the trip and 5s 1-2-1 at the t/d including a 2nd to Happy Clapper and a 3rd to Ammirata. On top of that, he was 4th in the Hawkesbury Guineas so he’s got a bit of class. Outside of those two, I have 1. CONSIGN (77) heavily involved. The Waller trained import was 1.1-lens 5th to Wine ‘N’ Dine coming from barrier 12, 12th of 14 on

the turn.

Butterboom. Picture: Simon Bullard.

RACE 6

THE Winter Stakes is basically a replay of the Civic Stakes with six of the 10 coming through that particular race. Just by the by, the Civic was 1350m on Jul. 2, the Winter Stakes is 1400m. The quinella in the Civic could easily be the quinella in the Winter Stakes only I have them the other way around this time with 9. BETTER NOT BLUE (85) to turn the tables on 1. NINTH LEGION (105). Both horses were fantastic for different reasons in the Civic, Ninth Legion faced the breeze but toughed it out like a real trooper. Better Not Blue meanwhile drew 7 of 9, was 7th on the turn and finished best of the rest to go down by a half-length. You’d think this could get down to an epic face off between the pair again, the TAB reckons so with both $5 eq favs on the TAB Fixed on Thursday morning. I was encouraged by what Better Not Blue’s trainer/owner Michelle Richie told Matt Jones at Racing NSW this week. “I knew he’d run a good race but he gave them a good run for their money with the way he hit the line so I couldn’t be happier with him going into this race. I’m more confident this time. I can’t fault him and he’s jumping out of his skin.” Of the rest — 2. SNIPPETS LAND (100) was a close 4th in the Civic while 10. SHADOW LORD (81) loves the slop and drops a lot on weight (up in class though) from his Randwick run last Saturday.

RACE 7

TOP-RATERS that also happen to be G3 winners given out at $15 TAB Fixed (Thursday morning) are just too good to pass up. I speak of course of Mnemosyne’s son 1. FORGET (93) who is part owned by Mark Waugh and Ricky Ponting. Forget didn’t fire last prep in those three runs finishing 6 of 6, 6 of 7 and 12 of 14 in a G2, G3 and Listed race (s). All we can really judge the horse on at this point are his trials and I thought they have been above adequate. 3. EL SASSO (87) was utterly dominant first-up winning an 1100m Bm90 here in Jul. 2. He hasn’t won second-up before but is 5s 0-3-1 and races here instead of the Ramornie which he was nom’ed for. I like him, plenty do, but $2.60 is pretty short in my book. 6. SWEET FIRE (87) is $12 which I only mention because she was $5.50 into $4.40 to win a very deep, much better race, first-up last prep finishing 6th to Religify and Spy Decoder. She spelled off a G3 placing and has trialled quite well. Only negative is she’s 3s 0-0-0 first-up.

RACE 8

PETER and Paul Snowden have two in this and I am almost certain that they’ll run one-two, slightly less certain about the order but quietly confident despite the huge differential against me in the market. My pick is 11. EXTENSIBLE (70) who is $7 Fixed to beat stablemate 7. THUD (76) who was scratched from the last on the card to run here which dented my confidence about Extensible a bit. I was hoping the Snowdens would be thinking, Thud can’t beat Extensible so we’ll split them up — didn’t happen. Thud’s bad luck in her two runs this prep needs no further explanation except to say she should be ‘x11’. As much as I love her, I have an equally big personal opinion of the stablemate Extensible who is 4s 2-2-0, very progressive and trialling enormous. She has the makings of a very good miler (and up) but I am banking that with the fresh legs and hopefully good tempo that she can do what she did at WF first-up last prep and zoom over the top of them. 6. FRILL SEEKING (77), 1. ELLE LOU (83) and 2, WINE TALES (82) can argue over bronze.

RACE 9

THIS race increased markedly in it’s degree of difficulty when Thud came out on Wednesday evening. I had her well on top but now revert to the best system in racing — Joe Pride in the last. He’s got 3. BUTTERBOOM (79) going around here, a mare by Myboycharlie that is going along great guns in recent weeks. She is 7s 3-1-2 at the trip and 2s 1-0-1 at the t/d. Barrier 6 means she can be right there as she likes to be and her jockey Tim Clark has to be the most in-form jockey in the State this winter. He’s riding doubles and trebles every where he turns up these days. I have a massive watch on 2, HILL SPY (76), one of two from the Luke Pepper stable. This horse is 5s 1-2-1 fresh and you could make a case that he should/could have won the SAJC Manihi Classic and Wagga Town Plate at his most recent two starts. I wish you could bet on fastest last 600m/400m.200m sectionals — I'd take 6/4 Hill Spy to be the quickest in all three. 14. NO BAD BLOOD (70) has obviously had some issues but there’s no doubt about his talent. If he was 95 to 100 per cent ‘right’ he could win this.