Melbourne: Comprehensive preview of every race at Moonee Valley

A COMPREHENSIVE preview of every race for Saturday’s meeting at Moonee Valley with Ray Hickson.

Killarney Kid. Picture: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

NOTE: Numbers in brackets are the official handicap ratings for each horse. Track rated Soft 5 at time of writing but form assessed for soft to heavy.

RACE 1

3. BLACK TOMAHAWK (86) won’t get a better chance to break through than right here in a race that looks tailor made for him on several fronts. Well weighted compared to his narrow defeat at Flemington last month, where admittedly he had his chance, enjoys the sting out of the ground and on paper he should get a great run behind the pace. Entitled to go close. 6. BAYANOVA (71) has a tendency to get a long way back but with the prospect of a reasonable tempo here and a wet track she can be very hard to hold out. Bit disappointing as favourite at Sandown last time and didn’t have much luck in an on-pacers race here three starts back. 2. ARALDO JUNIOR (93) has been consistent this time in and you know he will be up on the pace and doing his best. If you can place on a heavy 10 at Warrnambool you can handle just about anything so he’s in the mix regardless of the conditions. 1. AU REVOIR (100) did beat Black Tomahawk and Araldo Junior at Flemington but he’s a lot worse off at the weights and, to be frank, I’d like to see him do it again before I go trusting him. Plus he doesn’t want it too wet.

RACE 2

Tricky race to work out before knowing the conditions. If they head the way it’s forecast then 10. ROBBIE’S STAR (66) comes right into the race despite a rise in class and a midweek defeat last time out. Simply, he needs the sting out of the track and the wetter the better for him. He was a touch disappointing at Sandown last time but wasn’t beaten far and he’s yet to be placed on a good track. I like that Craig Williams has taken the ride and that’s a good push. 5. ARCHEAN (75) ran a very nice race at his first run for Darren Weir and he’ll improve off that. Not sure about him if it gets to heavy but he has a good second-up record, the mile suits and if he’s hitting the line again look out next time. 2. CAPRESE (76) ran past Archean late to grab third at Caulfield and while he’s on trial at the distance he gets around the Valley well and handles all conditions. If he runs it out he’ll be right there. 3. LAHQA (80) didn’t run up to her usual standard when coming off a seven week break but things didn’t go all her way either. She will be up on the pace and is usually hard to get past when she’s in order. Chances also to 4. MISS DENNI (80) and 9. GRAND DREAMER (67) who were both excellent in their first-up runs.

RACE 3

2. FRENCH EMOTION (85) has been, to date, a foolproof racehorse and I’d suggest she didn’t run out the mile at Group 3 level before a spell, spoiling her impeccable record. She put four impressive wins on end at the start of last prep, including one here on a soft 6, and she wasn’t overly tested in a jump out leading in. It would be a big surprise if she isn’t in the finish. 3. ROCKOLICIOUS (85) was far from disgraced in an on-pace dominated race at her first run for Darren Weir and she’ll be an improver from it. The blinkers are on and while I don’t think barrier one is great for her she looks a decent threat. 1. VIBRANT ROUGE (88) has been racing pretty well this time in without winning but she has struck out every time she’s hit a wet track. Against that she likes the Valley and is in the mix. 6. REFUSE TO LOSE (76) is a very good wet tracker who is racing in great form in easier class and makes her own luck up on the pace. With the light weight she can give a good sight.

RACE 4

12. PICCADILLIES (61) is one of the more interesting runners on the day and while she is on debut I don’t think it’s a super strong race. She’s shown good ability in jump outs, beating open class horses in her latest last Friday, and it will come as no surprise if she’s to measure up here given the well performed horses are also first-up. 2. SWEET SHERRY (71) has also won a jump out in recent weeks, by a decent margin, and she performed credibly in the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper at massive odds. She’s definitely good enough to win first-up and has to be kept safe. 1. ZAMZAM (75) was put under some pressure in her latest jump out but she was a stakes winner over this course on a soft track back in March and her only other career win was here on debut. Sure to run well. 4. ARIAZ (66) showed a lot of promise in her first preparation with an impressive debut win and a stakes placing in Adelaide. Her trial was inconclusive but it did produce I Am A Star to win last week. One of the chances.

RACE 5

8. KEN’S DREAM (64) could hardly have been more impressive at his debut as he romped away to a nine length win at Echuca. Sure it was a maiden out of town but it was a heavy track and he looked to be doing it pretty easily. Obviously this is harder but if we’re looking soft to heavy he has to be hard to beat. 1. THROSSELL (70) hasn’t done anything wrong and he’s been well prepared with a couple of jump outs and a barrier trial in recent weeks. Ultimately he should appreciate a mile but 1200m fresh suits and he commands plenty of respect. 3. DAM READY (66) showed plenty of ability in his first preparation including a dominant effort here at his second start before an even effort in Adelaide. He’s been gelded and should be strong at the finish. 7. VERSTAPPEN (64) gave nothing else a chance on debut cruising away for a win on Pakenham’s synthetic track. That’s the only query. The form from synthetic to grass is always patchy and inconsistent but he might be good enough to overcome it. Check the betting.

Heatherly. Picture: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images.

RACE 6

Have to stay with 1. KILLARNEY KID (98) who is just too well weighted going up only 0.5kg for rising four points (2kg) in his rating after a dominant win at Flemington to make it six wins from his last eight starts. Wet isn’t an issue and he should get another nice run just behind them. Take beating. 8. YULONG BABY (85) hasn’t put in a bad one this preparation and scrambled in for a narrow win at Flemington a couple of weeks ago. Taking on the boys so drops in weight again, she’s hard fit now and likes the sting out. Logical threat. 6. GOLDEN MANE (86) ran his usual honest race but wasn’t a match for Killarney Kid last time, though there’s an argument that he should have finished a bit closer. Meets him on worse weight terms (just) but his big problem is he doesn’t want it too wet. 3. PIN YOUR HOPES (93) also comes through that race and he is partial to a soft track so can’t be left out. In a purple patch of form at the moment and is sure to run another honest race.

RACE 7

Everybody saw 9. PILOTE D’ESSAI (88) first-up at Flemington, a massive return after tracking wide and refusing to give in behind Ulmann who had plenty of favours. Drawn the outside but he’s an off-pacer so that’s not a concern (any track bias may be) and he loves the wet. Hard to go away from him. At the same time 3. ROYAL RAPTURE (96) hasn’t done anything wrong winning impressively again at Flemington two weeks ago (bless him). Certainly a wet track is no negative for him and he’s versatile. Logical danger. 5. ONPICALO (93) enjoys the sting out too and it’s hard to forget his dominant win over the mile here three starts ago (although somewhat aided by bias). Beaten a long way last time but he’s back to a more suitable trip and is well worth another chance as you know where he’ll get to in the run. 12. PEMBERLEY (82) is a handy middle distance performer resuming and he was a first-up winner at 1400m last time in. His only real failure in recent memory was last start in the Mornington Cup but it wouldn’t surprise to see him run a cheeky race.

RACE 8

If 5. HEATHERLY (103) runs then I can’t see her being beaten but it’s an ‘if’ as it’s been publicly stated by the stable that they don’t want her to run on a very heavy track. She’s never raced on anything worse than good but she’d have seen some soft ground in her recent jump outs and she won the latest by a big space looking very good. Last start Oakleigh Plate winner and beat Politeness by five before that. Hard to go away from. 1. SHIRAZ (106) is very effective wet and he loves a rain affected track and I’d have no trouble jumping on his back in Heatherly’s absence. Outstanding at WFA first-up last time in and while I haven’t seen him in any jump outs if the support is there that’s all we need to know. 14. VIDDORA (79) ran over the top of Ocean Embers to win the Lightning in Adelaide last start and that form has already been confirmed in Melbourne. She’ll relish a bit of pace on here and if they are getting home she can be right in the finish. 13. ATMOSPHERICAL (95) showed something of a return to form first-up in the Monash and if she can repeat that effort she is very well placed with 55kg considering her rating. Doesn’t want it heavy but definite contender in the soft range.

RACE 9

I have no doubt 13. SEBRING SUN (82) is the best horse in the race and if Darren Weir has been able to harness his ability then he’s absolutely thrown in here. I have no issue with him in the wet and a lot of his soft track runs have been in Group company so his stats there are a touch misleading. Looks plenty of pace here and he’ll love that. Remember he is a G1 placegetter and a Listed winner and if he produces that he wins. 18. MAGICUS (78) is a model of consistency and was unlucky not to win at Caulfield last time out when out to 1400m. Too good over this course prior to that and while he is an emergency if the rain comes I reckon he’ll gain a start and he right in the finish. 6. SHAF (87) came off a break with a very impressive Flemington win and if he can produce that effort around the Valley, where he’s yet to really fire, then he’s right in it. Placed on a heavy in Adelaide two back so that box is ticked. 8. MAGNUS REIGN (85) is threatening to win a race and will find this a bit easier than the Aurie’s Star. Split Mighty Like and Voodoo Lad two starts back, handles the sting out (without being a star in it) and should be thereabouts again. 1. LE BONSIR (92) has the wide gate to contend with but he bounced back to form last time behind Shaf is loves the Valley. With a bit of luck it’s no surprise to see him go close.