Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: The Championships at Royal Randwick
RACING editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse all 10 races on day two of The Championships at Royal Randwick.
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse all 10 races on day two of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R1 (11.25am): CHINA HORSE CLUB MILE (1600m)
Thomas: Aristocractic Miss ran an absolute blinder at Rosehill in the Baillieu, where she was powering home late. The Randwick mile should suit. The danger is Momentum Factor. He was strong late at the end of 1100m when winning at Warwick Farm. I know this is a jump in grade and distance but he looks a nice horse with plenty of promise. Sokudo is fitter and will also appreciate the extra trip. Futooh has had no luck in recent starts and is not out of this race.
Dufficy: Aristocratic Miss looks hard to beat. I know she is still a maiden but she does have the right formlines. Hers was the best run in the Baillieu and he looks a miler. She will be hard to beat with any luck. I think Greysful Glamour has had a nice preparation for this race. She looks an improving filly. I agree with you, Ray, about Momentum Factor. I usually don’t take any notice of 1100m form going up to a mile but trainer David Payne usually winds one up for this race every year and they invariably run well. There was no fluke about Mandalong Tapit’s last-start win at Newcastle and although I expect he will make a better three-year-old, he can run well here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Muswellbrook $12-$11- $12 ($600 x $150 e/w @ $11/$3.45, $300 @ $11), Aristocratic Miss $4.60-$4.40- $4.20 ($200 @ $4.60, $1,000 @ $4.40, $500 @ $4.40 TWICE, $300 @ $4.40), Sokudo $12-$11
R2 (12.05pm): SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC (1400m)
Thomas: Isaurian is a promising colt and comes off an excellent run at his stakes race debut when beaten by the in-form filly I Am Excited. Run-of-the-race stuff didn’t quite go Isaurian’s way last start and his effort to close late was good. He is the one to beat. Renewal is the danger. He didn’t quite run out the 1500m in a strong Phar Lap Stakes but he still battled on well. That run will have toughened him up and he has trialled well between runs. I think it is a race in two, Ronnie, between Isaurian and Renewal. Waimea Bay is an underrated filly who ran well in the Provincial Championships heat at Newcastle last start. Torvill has raced well all autumn but is coming back a lot in distance and has to shoulder topweight.
Dufficy: I agree this looks a two-horse race but I am going the other way with Renewal. He has had almost a month between runs since his good fourth in the Phar Lap Stakes but I loved his recent barrier trial. I’m impressed with this horse and he will go well. I concede Isaurian is an improver and his form reads well. He did a good job in stronger grade last start when a close second to I Am Excited. Torvill is suited coming back in distance and dropping in class but I’m not sure she has much upside left this campaign. I like the gear change with Thy Kingdom Come. He is a bit of a deceiver but I like the blinkers going on. The gear change may help him.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Isaurian $2.80-$2.70 ($500 @ $2.70, $200 @ $2.70 MULTIPLE TIMES), Renewal $3.60-$4, Dark Dream $23-$15
R3 (12.40pm): PERCY SYKES STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: Pure Elation has jumped out of the ground the deeper she has gone into the season. She comes off a good effort behind Estijaab in the Reisling Stakes to win with real arrogance at the Warwick Farm midweeks. The bigger track at Randwick will suit her even better. Fiesta has the Golden Slipper form, where she ran a good seventh to Estijaab. She is the class filly of this field. Outback Barbie trialled super the other day and is a talent. Sister Sledge was good on debut and would not need to improve much to be in the finish.
Dufficy: I think there is good value in Outback Barbie. She had excuses in the Reisling when she endured a wide run and not much went right for her. They have kept her nice and fresh and I loved that trial she won where she ran fast time. She is primed to run a bold race from barrier one. Pure Elation has had a busy schedule but is going from strength to strength and learning all the time. Sweet Ava is a knockout chance back in distance and with blinkers on.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fiesta $5.50-$6 ($1,000 @ $6, $500 @ $6, $200 @ $5.50), Gongs $8-$7.50- $8 ($1,000 @ $7.50), Cristobal $7-$6
R4 (1.15pm): PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400m)
Thomas: A terrific race. I am leaning to Manhattan Mist primarily due to the barrier draw. He will get the right run from gate seven and he has shown above-average ability in his seven starts, finishing in the top two each race. He comes into this race after defeating Marsupial, albeit on a heavy track at Gosford, and that horse has since won at Warwick Farm. The good track suits Manhattan Mist here. Just Dreaming did run down Manhattan Mist in the Wyong heat then she ran a length seventh in a Group 1 Coolmore. Drawn a little awkwardly but is the one to beat. Newsfan is promising mare who didn’t have the best of luck when a close second to Serene Miss in the Gosford heat. Serene Miss would have been top pick with a good barrier but she has drawn the car park (17) and need everything to right.
Dufficy: Anything goes here. I want to be with the Wyong heat form and I like Just Dreaming. She deserves to be favourite after her terrific Coolmore effort and looks hard to beat. She will need a bit of luck from the wide draw but I will leave that to Hugh Bowman. Manhattan Mist has done nothing wrong all preparation. If there is to be an upset, it may come from Pomelo. She goes well second-up and it is worth remembering she started favourite in this race last year but went out too hard on a heavy track. Princess Posh has a good second-up record and she is drawn to get the good run.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bon Amis $9.50-$7.50, Manhattan Mist $7-$6.50, Hallelujah Boy $61-$34 ($200 @ $34)
R5 (1.50pm): ARROWFIELD SPRINT (1200m)
Thomas: I will give She Will Reign another chance. Everything went wrong in the William Reid Stakes last start but she is back against her own age here, drawn to get smothered up behind the leaders and then unleash her brilliant acceleration. Viridine is the obvious favourite and horse to beat. He has been good in both runs this time autumn, including his third to In Her Time and English in the Group 1 The Galaxy. This is easier and set weights suits Viridine, but at the odds I feel She Will Reign is worth a gamble. Showtime has talent and I Am Excited is absolutely flying, and there is no reason she can’t run well again.
Dufficy: I’m all over Viridine — he could well be the best bet of the day. His two runs back have been great and the Godolphin colt is ready to deliver third-up. This is set weights against his own age, 1200m, dry track — there are so many positives with him. I Am Excited hasn’t put a foot wrong this autumn, she is absolutely airborne and I can’t knock her. Houtzen showed she is back in form last week with a fighting win and I can make excuses for Pariah last start so expect a much-improved run from him.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Viridine $3.50-$2.90, She Will Reign $13-$12 ($250 @ $12, $200 @ $12), Booker $11-$9- $8 ($500 @ $9), Houtzen $11-$9- $7.50
R6 (2.25pm): ATC AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400m)
Thomas: A wide-open Oaks but I am staying with the favourite, Unforgotten. She didn’t have things to her way in the Vinery Stud Stakes and got a long way back, but she impressed with the way she stuck to her task and ran second. The 2400m shouldn’t be an issue and this is her chance to snare a Group 1 win. Hiyaam controlled the tempo in the Vinery Stud Stakes and was never seriously challenged. There is no reason she can’t do that again here. Luvaluva was good in the Adrian Knox Stakes last week with a big weight. Savvy Coup is a tough staying filly and won the NZ Oaks with authority. Ronnie, I am going to have something small on two rank outsiders, Naivasha and Wild Sea. They are coming off easy maiden wins in country Victoria but their trainers are renowned for their preparation of stayers.
Dufficy: It is a good race with quality fillies — the deepest Oaks I’ve seen for a while. Unforgotten has put two good runs together, including the Vinery Stud Stakes, where she just gave away too much start. I think from the good draw she can race a touch closer and prove hard to beat. Luvaluva was impressive giving her rivals 7kg and winning the Adrian Knox last week. She is right on target. Aloisia’s effort in the Vinery was nearly the best in the race as she covered a lot of extra ground, but the question mark about her is whether she can run 2400m. Nothing wrong with Hiyaam, a tough frontrunning filly who doesn’t lie down. There is a lot of confident support for her. Like you, Ray, I’ll be having a second look at Naivasha and Wild Sea as they come from astute stables, but this is a very strong Oaks.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Hiyaam $7-$4.60 ($225 @ $5.50, $2,300 e/w @ $4.60/$1.85, $500 @ $4.60, $200 @ $4.60), Unforgotten $3.50-$4.20 ($1,000 @ $4.20, $2,000 @ $4, $1,400 @ $4, $400 @ $4, $220 @ $4 TWICE), Savvy Coup $8-$7- $7.50 ($300 @ $8, $2,300 e/w @ $7.50/$2.45, $500 @ $7.50 TWICE, $200 @ $7), Bring Me Roses $26-$23
R7 (3.05pm): QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000m)
Thomas: As Hugh Bowman said at trackwork this week, this is probably Winx’s toughest race for a couple of years. She has drawn the outside barrier in the 10-horse field but I think that is a good thing because Winx’s main rival is equine traffic. Bowman should find a spot early, keeping the great mare out of trouble, and then let her race into history from the turn. Happy Clapper is in the form of his life and comes off a tremendous Doncaster Mile win last week. Ambitious’s effort in the Tancred was super, although he has to come back to 2000m here. Humidor didn’t have a lot of luck in the Doncaster, but he did give Winx a fright in the Cox Plate last spring. Winx is $1.15 for a reason, Ronnie.
Dufficy: Winx has opposition in numbers that are going well. This is the first time Winx will strike a firm track this autumn and we know she likes the sting out of the ground, but we are getting into her zone now over 2000m. But this is the distance range where she is untouchable and her first two runs back this autumn suggest to me she is going better than ever. Her track gallop last Saturday was unbelievable. I like the draw, too, as I do see some pressure in this race, so the set-up looks beautiful for Winx. Happy Clapper is flying and he loves Randwick. Ambitious worries me, as you can make a case he should have nearly won the Tancred when he lost momentum at a vital stage on the turn. Humidor is a weight-for-age 2000m specialist and he could easily bounce back to his Cox Plate form of last spring.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gailo Chop $13-$15, Winx $1.18-$1.15 ($124,500 @ $1.18, $6,000 @ $1.15, $5,000 @ $1.15, $4,500 @ $1.15, $3,000 @ $1.15, $2,500 @ $1.15, $2,000 @ $1.15)
R8 (3.45pm): SYDNEY CUP (3200m)
Thomas: I can’t remember a Sydney Cup with such a big field. Almandin, off his Tancred Stakes win, does look the horse to beat and he did win a Melbourne Cup two years ago, but I am going to back Peribsen each-way to beat the favourite. Peribsen gets in on the limit with 50kg, gets 7kg off Almandin and I liked his run last week when he ran on for third in the Chairman’s last week. He will stay all day and can run a race at big odds. Almandin is the class horse of the field, so I am not knocking him. If you like Peribsen, you have to include Sir Charles Road among the chances as he was tough last week winning the Chairman’s. Auvray got to the line nicely in the Tancred and is racing well.
Dufficy: A great Sydney Cup with a lot of good longshots. But I can’t get away from Almandin. He was very good in the Tancred, he is a proven two-miler and I feel even with 57kg he is well weighted considering his record. The danger is one at long odds, Lord Fandango. He just didn’t handle the wet last start but back in the spring he should nearly have won the Caulfield Cup. He is a lightweight chance on the good track. I respect Aloft. Team Williams has taken Kerrin McEvoy off Almandin to put him on Aloft. The form out of his first-up win at 2600m is good, with the Adelaide Cup quinella finishing behind him. I’m wary of Pre Stwick — his form is strong and Japanese stayers excel on firm ground.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Almandin $4-$4.20- $4.40 ($500 @ $4.20, $1,000 @ $4), Ventura Storm $13-$10, Pre Stwick $11-$12 ($2,000 e/w @ $12/$3.85), Lord Fandango $17-$15, Sir Charles Road $8-$6.50- $7-$6.50
R9 (4.25pm): COOLMORE LEGACY STAKES (1600m)
Thomas: I’m with Alizee. I thought she was going to let down and win the Vinery Stud Stakes at the top of the straight but she didn’t run out the 2000m. She is back to 1600m here, where she was so dominant winning the Flight Stakes last spring. Dixie Blossoms and Daysee Doom are the main dangers, although they have drawn out wide. Dixie Blossoms has a great record at Randwick and if she has any luck in running from the wide barrier, she will be finishing hard. Daysee Doom has the tactical speed to negate her wide draw and if she gets over without spending too much petrol, she will be tough to run down. Prompt Response scored a deserved win in the Emancipation Stakes and she never runs a bad race.
Dufficy: I think there is a good longshot here in Heavens Above. I can’t believe she is $31. She has had excuses in both her lead-up runs, she loves the Randwick mile and I feel she can run very, very well. Silent Sedition has gone back to the trials since her good third in the Coolmore and she has a very good hope. Dixie Blossoms needs a lot to go right from the draw but she is so good at Randwick. Alizee didn’t run out the 2000m last time and is better suited here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Daysee Doom $7-$8.50, Foxplay $8-$10- $9.50 ($1,500 @ $10), Silent Sedition $11-$6.50, Spanish Reef $11-$9.50 ($500 @ $9.50, $200 @ $9.50), Payroll $35-$23, Abbey Marie $26-$21
R10 (5.05pm): SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: Spright was back in business at Rosehill, unleashing that brilliant turn of foot. She has run fast time over the Randwick 1200m and I think she can win again. At the odds, $15, she is great value. White Moss is a mare I have a lot of time for and she has trialled well. Sugar Bella will need a good ride from the wide barrier but she is in good form. Ravi is drawn to get the run of the race and will be competitive.
Dufficy: Ravi wasn’t suited first-up when leading, that is not her go, and she is a much better chaser. She is beautifully in under these conditions. I want to be with Ravi from Sugar Bella, who is unbeaten in three runs at Randwick and will be competitive again. Quilista has been brilliant at her past two starts and Spright, although she might have been a little flattered by a good ride first-up, appreciates these dry tracks. TAB MARKET MOVERS: Spright $16-$14 ($250 @ $16, $200 e/w @ $16/$4.70), Ghisoni $11-$9.50- $10-$9.50, Quilista $5-$4.60, Sugar Bella $4.80-$5- $4.80
THE QUADDIE
RAY THOMAS (Daily Telegraph Racing Editor)
Race 7
Winx….that is all!
Numbers: 9
RACE 8
Very open Sydney Cup but I like Peribsen at the odds, Almandin is the class runner, Sir Charles Road and Auvray are chances. I’ll throw Who Shot Thebarman, Libran, Ventura Storm and Lasqueti Spirit into the mix.
Numbers: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13,15,18
RACE 9
Alizee is ready to run a huge race, I can never leave out Daysee or Dixie, Foxplay and Prompt Response are genuine hopes, as is Silent Sedition. Perfect Rhyme can run a race at huge odds.
Numbers: 1,2,3,4, 5, 15, 17
RACE 10
Spright is back in form, White Moss is a talented mare and Sugar Bella could win with any luck form her wide barrier. Ravi should get the right run.
Numbers: 3, 5, 8, 11
224 combinations
$20 = 8.92%
SALLY SNOW (TAB Thoroughbred Trader)
RACE 7
Winx is the obvious stand out and confident she won’t be beaten
Numbers: 9
RACE 8
Have to respect the stable with Almandin and Aloft, same goes for any Japanese stayer in Pre Stwick. Sir Charles Road, Peribsen and Ormito all had good runs out of the Chairmans
Numbers: 1, 6, 8, 10, 13, 18, 20
RACE 9
Very hard race so I’m looking for value and happy to leave out the top 3
Numbers: 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, 16, 17
RACE 10
White Moss could be the best EW bet on the card, with two other main hopes in Ghisoni and Sugar Bella
Numbers: 2, 8, 11
189 combinations
$20 = 10.58%
GLENN MUNSIE – (TAB Media)
RACE 7
Terrified but going one out the great mare to let me go wider in the other legs.
Numbers: 9
RACE 8
Almandin the class galloper but with the most weight. Can’t leave him out by any stretch. Wider chances here at odds to Lord Fandango (improve on dry), Auvray (G Schofield back on a plus), Ormito (with a 3200m run recently) & Pre Stwick (only because Japanese stayer).
Numbers: 1,6,8,9,20
RACE 9
Most open race of the day but looking very, very wide as in the traditional lead up races there has been nothing between them.
Numbers: 6,9,10,11,13
RACE 10
Another open race & looking at run on horses in the last race.
Numbers: 2,3,5,6,14
125 combinations
$20 spend equates to 16%
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S BEST BETS
NEWCASTLE
BEST BET: AFRICAN ACADEMY (Race 1, No. 2) This son of Turffontein did more than enough at his opening campaign and trialled well ahead this.
NEXT BEST: FUCHU (Race 8, No. 8) Locally trained son of All Too Hard who ran second on debut then came home to Newcastle to win next time out. That was on November 11, but trainer David Atkins has trialled his horse over 1000m and he went rather well.
VALUE: VIA VENETO (Race 3, No. 5)
Is also an All Too Hard, her dam, Valdemoro was second in the VRC Oaks and is a half sister to Highland Reel, who is the best horse to have ever raced and been beaten by Winx, a stablemate of this filly.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
RORY HUTCHINGS, the 2015/16 champion Sydney apprentice, now fully fledged senior jockey has a great book of rides at Newcastle, four of the six are for one of his long time supporters, Chris Waller.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 2,5,6,7,8, Race 6: 2,4,8, Race 7: 1,2,3,7, Race 8: 4,5,8,
GOULBURN
BEST BET: LIVIA’S STORY (Race 3, No. 6)
Superbly bred Sepoy filly out of a Group 1 performed Galileo mare. This one is trained at Randwick by Edward O’Rourke and is way down in grade from anything she has contested so far.
NEXT BEST: CONSTITUTIONAL (Race 1, No. 2)
Gerry Harvey-owned and bred filly trained by Joe Cleary, who should have a big day at Goulburn. This filly has shown improvement in each of her two runs and should win this.
COFFS HARBOUR
BEST BET: STAR SONG (Race 1, No. 2)
Locally trained son of Your Song who raced handy and battled on sufficiently well to finish third in an 810m maiden here on March 25. That race was 100 per cent stronger, form wise, than this one.
NEXT BEST: ROCKS ON ICE (Race 2, No. 8)
Morgan Butler-trained mare has the services of Matthew McGuren here in what is the best chance yet that the daughter of Pressday has had to win in her four career starts.