Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Royal Randwick
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy have started the day in winning form and both are keen on Shadow Hero in the feature race, the Spring Champion Stakes. Plus tips for the Group 1 races at Caulfield.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate all the big-race chances at Royal Randwick’s Spring Champion Stakes meeting and for Caulfield Guineas Day at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFFS’ BEST
Race 2, No.12 MASTER OF WINE
NEXT BEST
Race 6, No.1 NOIRE
Race 8, No.11 FASIKA
RAY’S BEST
Race 7, No.2 SHADOW HERO
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.12 MASTER OF WINE
Race 9, No.6 TRAUMATISED
ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Good 4. Rail: 6m out 1600m to winning post, 4m remainder.
R1 (1.10pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1600m)
Dufficy: This is one of the tougher Highways, lot of different formlines. I’ve ended up settling on But I Know, the mare that won a class 2 Highway last start. She landed some good bets that day and I don’t think there was any fluke in her win. She has the pedigree to train on and if we get that wet track, she won her maiden on a heavy 9 so I’m with her. Texas Storm has the best form, both runs back have been great but the only query is 1200m to 1600m for the first time. Black Wand is in the same boat. He’s first-up at 1600m after two months off but it was a really nice Randwick trial. Emanuela has no wet track experience but her two wins at Scone over the mile have looked very strong.
Thomas: Emanuela is a promising mare who has been dominant in those Scone wins over 1600m at her last two starts. She will appreciate the Randwick mile course but, as you pointed out Ronnie, the rain-affected track is a query. Black Wand continued his good form to win a Highway over 1800m at Rosehill two months ago. He hasn’t raced since but did have a nice trial hit-out leading into this race. My Tagoson goes well this track and distance. Gotta Want It is a mare with a lot of upside and is aiming for her fourth consecutive win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Weather Channel $13-$11
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R2 (1.45pm): HARROLDS HCP (2000m)
Dufficy: I’m very confident with Master Of Wine, who has the blinkers going on. I know he has only won one race and that was overseas but he has been crying out for 2000m. I loved his last-start effort when he was very strong through the line. Milk Man is his danger. He had a very sharp trial since his last start fourth and he looks ready to go on top of the speed. I didn’t mind Lord Gododdin’s last-start performance. Aliferous has some good form over the winter months and her last start effort suggests she is on the way back to top form.
Thomas: Master Of Wine does looks well placed, Duff. In his five Australian starts, this former English galloper has recorded three seconds and two thirds but is set to breakthrough here. He hit the line strongly for a close third to Junipal over 1600m here last start and the step up to 2000m is ideal. Milk Man finished just behind Master Of Wine last start and has since looked very good winning a Rosehill barrier trial. Of the others, High Opinion is working his way back into form.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Master Of Wine $3.50-$2.80
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R3 (2.20pm): CERRONE HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: Quackerjack trialled really well in preparation for this, I think $5 is acceptable, he won first-up on a soft track last time in, he has two Randwick wet wins to his credit, and that form he has around Trope and Kolding really stands out to me. Greyworm is the one Quackerjack has to get over the top of. Greyworm’s a nice horse and his past two wet track runs have been very good. He’s ready for 1400m. Sure Knee is a knockout horse first-up, she has some fresh form and I’m wary of her. Ranier, now that he has broken through, he could easily go on with the job.
Thomas: This race sets up well for Greyworm. We know he is effective on soft or heavy tracks and the grey is racing very consistently, winning at Rosehill on a heavy track before his close third to Sweet Scandal here last start. Drawn to get all the favours here. Your on-top selection, Ronnie, Quackerjack is resuming but he goes well fresh, handles all types of track, and absolutely bolted in with a Randwick barrier trial two weeks ago. You Make Me Smile enjoys these track conditions and will take catching. Ranier returned to top form last start and has to be included among the leading chances.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sure Knee $8-$6.50
R4 (2.55pm): STAN FOX STAKES (1500m)
Dufficy: This is not the strongest Stan Fox Stakes I’ve ever seen but Bottega is a good-looking prospect. He savaged the line to win at his only two starts and although he has no wet track experience, there is no reason to go against him here. Kooweerup, the Melbourne filly, was a Group 3 last season, had excuses when wide without cover last start and presents well. Fasano is a big improver with blinkers back on and that toughen up 1800m run. Brandenburg found Bottega too good a few starts back but he has trained on well.
Thomas: I’m going with Bottega. I concede it’s not easy to go from a provincial class 1 win straight to a Saturday stakes race but Bottega maintained his unbeaten record with a very impressive effort at Hawkesbury, unleashing a brilliant burst of acceleration to dominate his older rivals. Fasano gets the blinkers back on and drops back to 1500m which will suit. He should be competitive. Brandenburg has form around Bottega and is another improving type. Famous has won twice from four attempts this spring and comes off a determined effort at Wyong.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bottega $2.60-$2.40
R5 (3.30pm): ROMAN CONSUL STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: I have a slight leaning to Cosmic Force. Only the lack of a run beat him first-up. He set up his wet form leading into the Golden Slipper and with any luck he will be hard to beat. I wasn’t a fan of Microphone’s trial but I think we can be assured he will be presented in magnificent order. His gallop between races on Monday looked perfect. It’s not ideal he may have to resume on a wet track but we know he handles it. Accession is a knockout with blinkers on. He is not far off these two top colts. True Detective is back to 1200m with blinkers on and you might see a different horse.
Thomas: This is a good clash between two classy colts, Cosmic Force and Microphone. I’m leaning to Cosmic Force as he has a race fitness edge following his narrow loss to Standout in the Heritage Stakes at Rosehill. Cosmic Force handles wet tracks well – he did win a Pago Pago Stakes by more than seven lengths last autumn – and he will be in the finish. Microphone did beat Cosmic Force home in the Golden Slipper before winning the Group 1 ATC Sires Produce Stakes. Microphone is resuming here but has been working well. True Detective has been freshened up for this race but comes off a brilliant trial win. Standout dug deep to win the Heritage and is protecting an unbeaten record here.
R6 (4.10pm): ANGST STAKES (1600m)
Dufficy: There are three go-to horses here. I’m very keen on Noire even though I know the map doesn’t really suit her. She has found a soft track, she has had that fitness run, and she can reel off a good closing sectionals. I’m confident she will be hard to beat. Amangiri gets all the favours up front. This is a different style of race to the one she hit first-up when she had to chase down a tearaway leader. This is more her go. Nettoyer is flying. She was unlucky in the Cameron, good in the Epsom and the last time she met mares she won on a back-up, so all the figures suggest she will be hard to beat. So Taken is on trial at this distance but she likes soft tracks and is a genuine mare.
Thomas: Nettoyer is in terrific form. As you pointed out Ronnie, she was a touch unlucky when third to Rock in the Cameron Handicap then her effort in the Group 1 Epsom when sixth to Kolding last week was exceptional. She comes back to a race for mares here and looks hard to beat. Noire wasn’t beaten far in the Shannon Stakes and should be hard to beat here. Amangiri needed the run when resuming with a fourth to Ranier at Rosehill and is right in this race. All Too Soon has been struggling of late but is back to mares grade and likes soft tracks.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nettoyer $6-$4.60
R7 (4.50pm): SPRING CHAMPION STAKES (2000m)
Dufficy: We have the right favourites in Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio but I don’t think there is as much between them as the market suggests. In saying that, I’m an unabashed Shadow Hero fan, he’s a dominant staying type on the rise. His only possible issue here is the unknown factor is the wet track and that makes him a little bit short in the market. Castelvecchio is a class horse. He wasn’t suited back in distance in the Golden Rose. He’s been there done that, he has wet form, and history is on his side as his half-sister, Maid Of Heaven, won this race last year, and his sire Dundeel won the race in 2012. He could continue the family tradition. Just Thinkin’ didn’t know what hit him when the speed went on last start. I would suggest Rhaegar probably takes a sit this week which gives Just Thinkin’ the chance to control the tempo with blinkers on and he can run very well. Quick Thinker won well in the wet two starts back.
Thomas: How good was Shadow Hero in the Gloaming Stakes. I concede the fast tempo suited him but the manner in which he accelerated from the top of the straight and powered through the line at the end of 1800m could not have been more impressive. The Randwick 2000m should be perfect for Shadow Hero and I’ve have to be with him. I’m wary of Castelvecchio. He was dominant in the Champagne Stakes at the end of his two-year-old season and his two runs back this spring have been sound. He finished alongside Shadow Hero in the Dulcify Stakes and then found the 1400m too short for him in the Golden Rose. Castelevecchio can make a race of it with Shadow Hero. Just Thinkin’ could cause an upset if he dictates terms in front like he did two starts back. Persan was doing his best work on the line in the Gloaming and will appreciate this extra distance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Shadow Hero $1.85-$1.70, Battenburg $101-$61 ($1,500win x $500place @ $101/$12, $500 @ $81, $500win x $100place @ $81/$9)
R8 (5.30pm): SILVER EAGLE (1300m)
Dufficy: This is a fantastic race, I’m excited about these four-year-olds. I’m a fan of Fasika. She suffered her first defeat but was very brave in doing so with no luck first-up at Rosehill. She likes the wet, she likes a fight, and I think she can win. The Inevitable must be a good horse with seven wins from nine starts, 1000m to 1600m, wet or dry, on speed or off speed. There is a chance he could be something special. How can you knock Mizzy – she is three from three this spring. She does everything right in her races and gives herself every chance. The best longshot of the day is Zousain. He has blinkers on second-up, needed the run when resuming. I know he has had issues for a few preparations he might be back on track.
Thomas: Fasika is a very genuine mare who has the tactical speed to take full advantage of her inside draw. She had no luck when resuming in the Sheraco Stakes, travelling wide without cover before going under in a tight finish to Mizzy. Fasika has since had a soft barrier trial and is sure to run well. In a race of many chances, Kapajack will be charging home, as will Military Zone who has an unbeaten second-up record. The Inevitable toyed with older horses at Moonee Valley and looks highly promising. I’ve left out Mizzy, who just keeps winning, Zousain, Sesar, Jonker and Buffalo River among others. This is a deep race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: The Inevitable $3.10-$2.60 ($1,000 @ $3.00), Mizzy $8-$6.50
R9 (6.05pm): DRINK WISE HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: I like Black Magnum. He was very good after a wide run in a very strong midweek race last start. He likes wet tracks, saves ground on the inside and should be hard to beat. Traumatised was amazing winning at Wyong with a brilliant finishing sprint. The concern I have is his second-up form is nowhere near as good as his first-up form. I like the fact Poised To Strike has had two Sydney barrier trials so he has been set-up to run well here. Agent Pippa is a big improver on a wet track.
Thomas: Traumatised can run well here at each-way odds. He was terrific first-up finishing fast to win with authority at Wyong, albeit in a much easier race. But he drops 4.5kg to 56kg today, he handles rain-affected conditions and should be very competitive. Black Magnum has held his form over an extended campaign and will be in the finish. Similarly, Miss Invincible has won two of her three starts this spring and rates highly again. I’m expecting Invictus Salute to sprint well fresh.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Black Magnum $7.50-$6.50
CAULFIELD
R6 (3.10pm): THOUSAND GUINEAS (1600m)
Dufficy: Flit only needs clear running to win this race. Everyone has seen what she has done in her two runs back, she has been set for this race and I think she will prove far too classy. Don’t be surprised if she wins well and emerges as a Cox Plate chance. Lyre has a perfect draw and is an improver. Emeralds has the right formlines with good finishing figures last start. Missile Mantra has been crying out for 1600m.
Thomas: Missile Mantra has been devoid of luck in three starts this spring but each of those efforts suggested she would be hard to beat once she got out to 1600m for this race. She’s a talented filly but is costing herself dearly with poor getaways. I don’t mind the outsider barrier for her here as she can settle back in the field early, hopefully with cover, and she will be charging to the line. Flit was very good first-up in the Silver Shadow Stakes then also had no luck behind Acting last start. She looks very hard to beat. Lyre is a top class filly and Acting’s form is hard to fault.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lyre $6.50-$5.50
R7 (3.50pm): CAULFIELD STAKES (2000m)
Dufficy: This is a very tricky race. We are looking for a weight-for-age horse and if Avilius can do it on a dry track he is the one. I’m tipping him but I’m wary of all these international horses. Homesman maps a lot better than he did in the Underwood when he had to do a bit of work out wide. The internationals to watch are Danceteria and Dream Castle.
Thomas: Avilius returned to his best with a third Group 1 win in the George Main Stakes. The Godolphin galloper is blessed with brilliant acceleration which is so vital for elite level weight-for-age racing. He is the one to beat. Homesman was so impressive first-up in the Feehan Stakes but $101 outsider Black Heart Bart nosed him out last start. Homesman is fitter now and will test Avilius. Danceteria has outstanding European form and can’t be overlooked. Gailo Chop is improving with racing.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Avilius $2.60-$2.40 ($2,000 @ $2.50, $1,000 @ $2.40, $1,500 @ $2.40), Harlem $51-$34, Danceteria $10-$8
R8 (4.30pm): CAUFIELD GUINEAS (1600m)
Dufficy: The barrier draw has turned this into a bit of a luck race. I’m confident Kubrick won’t miss a place. He comes out of the right race, the Golden Rose, where I think he was ridden too close. If ridden more quietly here he will be charging home. No knock on Dalasan who looks a really nice horse. But I didn’t like the way he wouldn’t go straight last start. For these big Grand Finals you have to be on your game so maybe Hugh Bowman can sort him out. Of the others I’m looking for a good Derby trial from Eric The Eel, he’s a strong staying type. Super Seth will go much better from the good draw.
Thomas: Alligator Blood has an admirable racing pattern, settling close to the lead early which gives him every chance. He stepped up to the mark in the Guineas Prelude, scoring a tough win. There is no dominant three-year-old this spring but Alligator Blood keeps winning and I’m happy to be on him here. Kubrick seems set to peak for this race. He has had two runs back and comes out of a very strong Golden Rose when he ran fifth to Bivouac. The wide barrier is a concern but he will be charging home. Dalasan has also drawn out in the car park but with any sort of luck in the run, he is going to be hard to hold out. Subedar brings some strong formlines to this race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Alligator Blood $5-$6-$4.80, Roccabascerana $19-$11, Super Seth $11-$13-$12 ($300ew @ $13/$3.80, $8,500 @ $12)
R10 (5.45pm): SCHILLACI STAKES (1100m)
Dufficy: Trekking looks a good thing to me. He is up in distance, he’s a Stradbroke winner, there is speed up front, he has won at Caulfield so no negatives at all. He should be hard to beat. The Bostonian ran well inside last start and must be considered. Despatch will give himself every chance from the inside draw and Bons Away is a good toiler.
Thomas: I can see Trekking getting the golden ticket into The Everest, Duff. I thought there was a lot to like about his closing effort in the Moir Stakes, even though he only ran eight. He is better suited at Caulfield and this race sets up nicely for him. The Bostonian, a dual Group 1 winner, finished alongside Trekking at Moonee Valley last start and he is the main danger. Ball Of Muscle won this race last year and will take some catching again. Bons Away is racing well and expect Booker to improve.
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
KEMBLA
BEST BET
UNDOUBTED (Race 2, No.5)
Son of Group 1 winner Sky Cuddle and a brother to Champagne Cuddles, this Jason Coyle-trained gelding is loaded with talent — easily city class — and has trialled super lately.
NEXT BEST
DIDDLES (Race 4, No.7)
Runner-up in the 2018 Gimcrack at her one and only start so far. Had a little issue after that but she’s been given time and is back as good as ever it seems.
VALUE
TOMBSTONE (Race 5, No.3)
Very promising staying type on debut here over 1400m. He will be getting to the line big time on what we have seen in his trials. Nice horse for the future.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 2,3, Race 6: 5,7, Race 7: 3,4, Race 8: 4,5
TRAINER TO FOLLOW
JASON COYLE places his horses as well as anyone and very few Kembla meetings go by without him training at least one winner there.
PORT MACQUARIE
BEST BET
SHOWADA (Race 5, No.10)
Half sister to Sydney Cup runner-up, Zacada, her grand-mda Showella was a G1 winner on either side of the Tasman. Point is, this mare is dying to get to 10 furlongs here.
NEXT BEST
CONSTANZIA (Race 2, No.4)
This Pierro mare trialled like she’d be very hard to beat when produced on raceday.
FORBES
BEST BET
EMPOWERED MADAM (Race 2, No.1)
Even though she has placed only once in seven starts, she has finished within three lengths of the winner at her four runs since joining the Sharon Jeffries camp. Go well here.
ALBURY
BEST BET
CATHANDA (Race 3, No.6)
Locally-trained mare came from last to win her Bm66 assignment at Gundagai last start. Finds a suitable race again here.