Saturday Best: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy preview Rosehill and Flemington
Racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the best chances on Golden Eagle Day at Rosehill, plus all the Group 1s at Flemington.
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Ray and Duff: Who will soar in Golden Eagle?
The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the big-race chances at the Golden Eagle meeting at Rosehill Gardens and for Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
MUSHAIREB (Rosehill, Race 3, No.5)
NEXT BEST
OUTRAGEOUS (Rosehill, Race 9, No.3)
EXCEEDANCE (Flemington, Race 6, No.6)
VALUE
SANDBAR (Rosehill, Race 4, No.1)
RAY’S BEST
TALLY (Rosehill, Race 6, No.1)
NEXT BEST
ZARDORO (Rosehill, Race 2, No.4)
VALUE
AQUA D’IVINA (Rosehill, Race 3, No.3)
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ROSEHILL GARDENS
R1 (12.05pm): POWER ACCESS HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: I’m going to stick with Betcha Flying. In an ideal world I would like her to be at 1500m or 1600m but I just love this filly. I feel we will be seeing more of her in seasons to come. She will be finishing this race off hard, for sure. The danger could be her improving stablemate, Moreno. They changed tactics last start and led and impressed me the way he fought on well. He can go on with the job here. Everyone is opposing Faretti at 1400m but he looks like a horse that could settle well in front and if left alone he does have a good sprint on him. Indy Car created a huge impression winning at his debut at Newcastle.
Thomas: Faretti and Rule The World can give Tulloch Lodge a stable quinella in the opener. Faretti is on the quick back-up after his fourth in the Brian Crowley Stakes last week. He was a beaten favourite behind Diamond Thunder in that race but getting out to 1400m in his easier grade should suit. Rule The World showed plenty of talent in his debut preparation, winning both races and he can sprint well fresh. Betcha Flying should have won last start and gets her chance here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Betcha Flying $7.50-$8-$6.50-$6, Faretti $4.20-$3-$2.80 ($431 @ $3.30, $2,800 @ $3, $1.050 @ $3, $700 @ $2.90), Indy Car $23-$9
R2 (12.40pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1200m)
Dufficy: Fair Dinkum has returned a much better horse this spring. He only has to run the 1200m right out to prove very hard to beat. I thought the danger is Atlantic King. His Brisbane runs have been great, he is a little bit untapped, and his trainer Matt Dunn knows the type of horse you need for these Highways. I want to be forgiving with Plonka, although he has an awkward draw. Zardoro is a proven Highway performer who will relish this speed up front and can’t do anything but run well.
Thomas: Zardoro ran into dead ends in the straight and should have finished much closer than his seventh to Feel The Knight at Randwick. He goes well at Rosehill and should be right in the finish. Coup De Main is well placed back in Highway grade but he has a horror draw. Fair Dinkum has had a freshen-up since a narrow loss at Randwick and Acquittal will be improved by his solid first-up effort.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fearnley $26-$19-$18, Upper House $51-$23
R3 (1.20pm): TOOHEYS HCP (1500m)
Dufficy: I’m very keen on Mushaireb. His first-up run looks to be the form race, in my opinion. He only has to reproduce that performance to win this race. I like the fact he has had a five-week freshen up into this 1500m race. Asterius was solid first-up when he was expected to need the run. This suits him better and there is usually a big lift from him second-up. Sir Pippin has had two trials and been unextended in both so watch market moves. Super Star Bob is ready to win another race and I like his profile from barrier one.
Thomas: I don’t mind Aqua D’Ivina at odds here. She was doing her best work on the line when unplaced behind Greyworm. I know it has been a while since she has shown any worthwhile form but her second-up record is very good and this course and distance suits. Mushaireb was terrific first-up and is a worthy favourite. Thy Kingdom Come finished well in front of Aqua D’Ivina last start and is close to a win. Asterius excels over this course and distance, and also boasts an impressive second-up record.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Asterius $6-$5, Mushaireb $3.30-$3.10-$2.80 ($1,000 @ $2.90)
R4 (2pm): CHANDON S HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: Sandbar is ready to improve dramatically here. He was above himself in condition first-up in the Sydney Stakes where he sat wide with no cover then made a dash at them before knocking up. It’s a different story here. He’s drawn the inside barrier, he’s won over this track and distance and he seems to have come back well. Beau Ideal sets up nicely here. He is suited with all this speed up front. Special Reward is a very talented horse but he is an awkward spot from an outside draw. Ljungberg might be short of his best distance but with the speed up front he will be running on.
Thomas: Beau Ideal comes out of a strong form race when a close fourth to Signore Fox at Randwick. He has improved steadily with each run this campaign and goes to Rosehill off a very impressive barrier trial at Warwick Farm when he was bolting between Junglized and Passage Of Time. Ready to win. Ljungberg shaped promisingly in a recent barrier trial and can sprint well fresh. Agent Pippa is very fast and will take running down again. Akasaki is over the odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Special Reward $5-$4 ($500 @ $4.40, $1,000 @ $4.20), Agent Pippa $5-$4.60, Beau Ideal $5-$4.20-$4.40
R5 (2.40pm): TAB HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: Very tricky race. I’m going wide with Ballistica. She was dragged back from the wide draw first-up and the race wasn’t run to suit. Considering the price she is I think the market has overplayed her off a forgiving run. I’d rather back her each-way than a couple of these favourites who could be risky up front. Jen Rules has been set up nicely with a couple of trials. Dance Hall Girl has had a freshen up and could take control of this race up front. Lisdoonvarna is an underrated mare coming off a good win a big weight.
Thomas: Lisdoonvarna carried a big weight to a tough win over Vitesse at the Kensington track a month ago. She’s been kept fresh since and with the claim, gets in nicely at the weights. She’s a little awkwardly drawn but with luck in running she will be hard to beat. Miss Invincible understandably will start as favourite. Her form is very good and she is certain to be in the finish. Segalas is up in grade here but racing well. Dance Hall Girl is back in her right grade here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Jen Rules $10-$7
R6 (3.25pm): ROSEHILL GOLD CUP (2000m)
Dufficy: I want to go with Chapada. He finds a nice race third-up after a solid effort in the Seymour Cup. This horse did run third to The Autumn Sun in a Rosehill Guineas in the autumn. I’m happy to go his way. Tally is flying without winning this spring. I’d like to see him go forward and take ownership of this race. Dealmaker backed up his win with a solid run last start and now he is back in play he must be considered. The Lord Mayor is a bolter but he has won three from three third-up. Antilles is impossible to line up but some of the ratings boys have him in the mix.
Thomas: Tally ran a blinder to beat all but the outstanding Happy Clapper in a tight finish to the Craven Plate last start. Tally is right at his peak now after three runs from a spell and despite conceding weight to his rivals, he’s the one to beat. Chapada has to be included as one of the main chances for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. Dealmaker is racing in good form and is nicely placed down in the weights. Irish raider Antilles is hard to line up but the stable must be respected.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tally $6.50-$4.80-$4.60-$4 ($2,000 @ $4.40), Morton’s Fork $19-$12
R7 (4.15pm): GOLDEN EAGLE (1500m)
Dufficy: This is shaping as one of the races of the season. I have to give Arcadia Queen another chance. She got out of her comfort zone speed-wise in the TAB Everest but she will be ridden to her normal pattern in this race, this is more her distance. This is her Grand Final and I’m convinced she will be figuring in the finish. This is a perfect set-up for Kolding who has had a trial since winning the Epsom, that’s top form, he has the right draw and will be hard to beat. Classique Legend hasn’t been beyond 1250m in his career but the way he relaxes suggest to me he is not out of this race. We know Brutal is talented enough and it is up to Tommy Berry to do a good job. I’m going with the big four but you can make a case for a lot of horses who are way over the odds. Fasika, The Inevitable, Military Zone is the forgotten horse, Gem Song is $51 off a very good fourth in an Epsom which just shows the strength and depth of this race.
Thomas: Brutal – just. This is a great race and I’m leaning to Brutal over Arcadia Queen. I know he has to overcome the wide barrier but Sunlight should bring him across and I can see him settling outside the leader or even slotting in with cover. If that happens, I’m with Brutal to hold off a surging Arcadia Queen who is better suited at 1500m than she was in The Everest. Classique Legend has drawn the rails and if he gets clear galloping room from the turn, he can win. The Inevitable just keeps winning as does Kolding.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Brutal $4.60-$5-$5.50, Classique Legend $5-$7.50-$7 ($900 @ $7.50, $700 @ $7.50, $250 e/w @ $7/$2.40, $250 e/w @ $5/$1.94), Kolding $6.50-$7-$5 ($500 e/w @ $7/$2.41, $1,000 e/w @ $6.50/$2.29, $1,300 @ $5, $1,000 @ $5 TWICE, $900 @ $5, $500 @ $5), The Inevitable $8-$10, Arcadia Queen $4.20-$2.80-$3.20 ($500 @ $4.20, $664 @ $4, $500 @ $4, $600 @ $3.80, $510 @ $3.80, $1,000 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.80), Fasika $16-$18 ($575 @ $17, $1,000 @ $4.76 PLACE)
R8 (5pm): REDZEL STAKES (1300m)
Dufficy: Another great race. Tommy Berry has to cope with another wide draw on Pierata and he will need to make a decision early whether to go forward or back. But we all saw how good Pierata was finishing an unlucky fifth in The Everest, that’s the right form for this race, and with even luck in running he should just about win. Trekking is in great form winning the Schillaci Stakes then producing probably a career-best in The Everest to finish third. Fiesta was fantastic first-up and with improvement she has a knockout chance. Champagne Cuddles will just do her thing and run another genuine, competitive race.
Thomas: Pierata was unlucky in The Everest, finishing a very good fifth after striking trouble in the straight. The inside barrier went against him last start and although he’s drawn wide today, I think that will be to his advantage. If he finds cover early, then he will be hard to hold out as he has such a brilliant burst of acceleration. Deprive is flying, Champagne Cuddles never runs a bad race and Trekking comes off his very good Everest third.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pierata $2.60-$2.80-$2.70 ($1,500 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.70), Trekking $4.80-$4.20 ($580 @ $4.40), Home Of The Brave $15-$11, Deprive $7.50-$6.50
R9 (5.40pm): WISDOM HOMES HCP (1300m)
Dufficy: Outrageous only has to bring his first-up form to this race and he is close enough to a good thing. The map sets up beautifully for him and he gets his opportunity to win. Charretera has only missed a place once in his career and his trials have been great leading into his return. Juventus had excuses when he missed the start the other day and Destiny’s Own is trialling well and is the best longshot in the race.
Thomas: Outrageous was trapped three and four wide without cover but still loomed up to win in the straight only to be collared near the line by Signore Fox and Reelem In Ruby. His narrow first-up loss was tremendous and from the good barrier here, he should get the right run. He’s well-weighted after the claim, too. Charretera is very consistent, Spring Charlie is worth another chance and Juventus also looks hard to beat.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Outrageous $5-$2.50 ($500 @ $5, $1,000 @ $4.20, $1,000 @ $3.80, $800 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.90, $556 @ $2.80, $625 @ $2.60, $666 @ $2.50)
FLEMINGTON
R5 (2.20pm): EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600m)
Dufficy: I want to put my Sydney hat on with most of these races. I think this has been the plan for Pohutukawa since the winter. The last time she was at 1600m I felt she should nearly have beaten Kolding in the Queensland Guineas. The race tempo was totally against her last start and if they get some rain she has that base covered. Back to 1600m, she is ready to produce the goods. Invincibella did beat Pohutukawa in the Tiara in the winter and I would suggest this has been the plan for her third-up here. Melody Belle is a superstar Kiwi mare but the question mark is has she already had a couple of Grand Finals. Nettoyer ran well in the Epsom and backed that up with her last start win.
Thomas: Melody Belle has an imposing record and is the one to beat but I think Baccarat Baby each-way is a good gamble. She will be improved by two runs from a spell and is out to her best distance now where she has form around Kolding. At $23, she is over the odds. No knock on Melody Belle, Angelic Ruler is another at good odds and Savatiano is back in winning form.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Melody Belle $3.20-$3.50-$3.70 ($672 @ $3.70, $1,000 @ $3.50 TWICE, $600 @ $3.50 TWICE, $830 @ $3.40, $2,000 @ $3.30, $1,000 @ $3.20), Pohutukawa $7-$7.50-$7-$5.50 ($1,000 e/w @ $7.50/$2.70, $2,000 @ $7, $300 x $2,000 e/w @ $7/$2.60, $600 @ $7, $600 @ $5.50), Fidelia $21-$15 ($250 e/w @ $21/$6 TWICE)
R6 (3pm): COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: I’m very confident with Exceedance. The blinkers have finally come on and I loved his trial down the straight the other day. This is his race. Libertini is the danger. She is nice and fresh for this, back to 1200m suits. Bivouac obviously had no luck in the Manikato and he has a very good chance here, as does Cosmic Force who won well last start and won’t be troubled if there is any rain.
Thomas: Exceedance has the blinkers on and that might give him the decisive edge. He was third behind Bivouac and Yes Yes Yes in successive Sydney starts then went very well in a jump-out up the straight last week. Cosmic Force showed his class to win the Roman Consul Stakes last start, Bivouac had no luck in the Manikato Stakes and Libertini has the talent to win this race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Microphone $13-$10, Bivouac $3-$3.20-$3.40 ($1,050 @ $3.10, $1,000 @ $3.10 TWICE, $600 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3.10), Accession $51-$34, Exceedance $4.60-$4.40-$4.80-$4.20 ($1,000 e/w @ $4.80/$1.90, $1,000 e/w @ $4.80/$1.90), Libertini $5.50-$5-$4.80-$5, Broadwayandfourth $51-$26
R7 (3.45pm): VICTORIA DERBY (2500m)
Dufficy: Everyone is looking for reasons why Shadow Hero can’t win, some are saying his pedigree might be a bit ‘soft’ for 2500m but you only need to look at the individual and he hasn’t put a foot wrong. He has the A-grade form beating Castelvecchio last start and he should win. If there is to be an upset it is Relucent. Chris Waller has treated him like a Derby horse all the way through and he comes off a tough run at Geelong. I like the way Warning is going and Soul Patch did a good job to win last star.
Thomas: Shadow Hero won the Gloaming Stakes and Spring Champion Stakes double, the latter when he finished powerfully to beat Castelvecchio. The form out of that race has been confirmed with Castelvecchio running a blinder to beat all but Lys Gracieux in the Cox Plate last week. Shadow Hero should stay a strong 2500m. Thought Of That scored a brilliant win in the Caulfield Classic and is the main danger. Warning and Relucent should run the trip right out.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Shadow Hero $3-$3.50-$3.40-$3.50-$3.10 ($1,000 @ $3.50, $2,000 @ $3.40, $1,500 @ $3.40, $1,000 @ $3.40 MULTIPLE TIMES, $1,000 @ $3.30, $5,000 @ $3.20, $1,750 e/w @ $3.20/$1.50, $900 x $500 e/w @ $3.20/$1.50), Soul Patch $6-$4.40-$4.80 ($1,000 @ $6.50, $1,000 @ $5.50, $300 x $400 e/w @ $4.40/$1.75), Thought Of That $4-$4.20-$3.80-$3.90-$3.50 ($750 @ $4.20, $600 @ $4.20, $500 @ $4.20 TWICE, $1,000 @ $3.90), Southern Moon $13-$16-$19
R8 (4.35pm): CANTALA STAKES (1600m)
Dufficy: The Cantala Stakes is always a tough race. But I’ve been waiting for Night’s Watch. He had no luck in the Toorak, he meets the winner, Fierce Impact, 2kg better and he finds Flemington which suits him. I don’t mind the longshot Fifty Stars. Any rain enhances his chances and I’ve got him mapping nicely in this race. Star Of The Seas has been very genuine and has every base covered. He’s a very, very good racehorse. Rock is still raw and inexperienced but is heading in the right direction.
Thomas: Star Of The Seas tried hard when a very good to Kolding and Te Akau Shark in the Epsom Handicap. He’s drawn perfectly and with only 53.5kg, he looks hard to beat in an open race. Fierce Impact showed a brilliant turn of foot to win the Toorak Handicap and rates highly again. Night’s Watch didn’t have the best of luck when second to Fierce Impact last start and has to be considered, Royal Meeting did enough at Caulfield to suggest he can run very competitively.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Royal Meeting $11-$9 ($600 @ $11, $500 @ $10), Nights Watch $8.50-$7 ($2,000 @ $7.50 AVERAGED OUT, $1,250 @ $7, $800 @ $7, $500 @ $7
TWICE), Rock $11-$9.50-$11, Star Of The Seas $15-$10-$9.50-$9 ($500 @ $14, $250 e/w @ $13/$4.20, $500 @ $12, $500 @ $10), Chief Ironside $15-$12-$13 ($300 e/w @ $14/$4.60, $250 e/w @ $15/$4.80, $2,000 @ $13)
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
NEWCASTLE
BEST BET
TOMBSTONE (Race 3, No.2)
Grey son of French Derby and Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner Reliable Man. This horse will stay well beyond the 1500m of this race but it is perfect for him at his second career start.
NEXT BEST
LA GRISA (Race 6, No.8)
Another grey by Reliable Man, this mare’s dam, Miss Scarlatti, was runner-up in the Wakeful and VRC Oaks. Crying out for the 1850m — perfectly placed here.
VALUE
ROCHA CLOCK (Race 7, No.10)
John O’Shea-trained stablemate of La Grisa and as the name suggests is out of Rocha, who beat La Grisa’s mum in that Wakeful in 2008. Great trials!
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
ANDREW GIBBONS might be the shortest-priced thing on two or four legs at Newcastle in the TAB Jockeys Challenge.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 4,5,7,8, Race 6: 8, Race 7: 10,13, Race 8: 6,7.
DUBBO
BEST BET
EMPOWERED MADAM (Race 2, No.10)
Sharon and Tiffany Jeffries combine with a mare that went as close as she has before to breaking the maiden status first-up. Placed to win again with any luck.
NEXT BEST
CASZAR (Race 6, No.4)
Greg Ryan ran a neck second on this horse when they came from back (as usual) to get close in a decent Bm66 at Narromine on everest day. The one to beat here.