Saturday Best: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy preview Randwick and the Valley
The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances in the nine-race Royal Randwick program and the Cox Plate at the Valley. FULL ANALYSIS AND TIPS
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Racing’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss all the chances at Royal Randwick and the Valley, including the $1 million Bondi Stakes and the Cox Plate.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
MASTER OF WINE (Race 6, No.7)
NEXT BEST
PRETTY IN PINK (Race 5, No.1):
VALUE BET
SAFADO (Race 8, No.6)
RAY’S BEST
REELEM IN RUBY (Race 5, No.9)
NEXT BEST
FARETTI (Race 3, No.3)
VALUE BET
SAFADO (Race 8, No.6)
Stream over 50 sports live & anytime on your TV or favourite device with KAYO SPORTS. The biggest Aussie sports and the best from overseas. Just $25/month. No lock-in contract. Get your 14 day free trial >
ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Good 4. Rail: +8m
R1 (12.55pm): KIRKHAM PLATE (1000m)
Ron Dufficy: An interesting race with a view to the Golden Gift. There were two strong triallers, maybe even three, going into this but I was particularly impressed with Close To Me. Although she didn’t run the time, she settled beautifully then burst through the field to win easily. I’ll go with her from Anders who showed terrific improvement from one trial to the next where he dominated from the front and raced away. See You Soon only trialled on Tuesday but showed enough. Endorse has shaped well in two trials and is sure to be presented well by Team Snowden.
Ray Thomas: This is an intriguing race, Ronnie. I’m leaning to Anders but only just from Close To Me and Endorse. I was taken by the way Anders streaked away from his rivals to win that Rosehill trial by eight lengths. As you said, he made significant improvement from his first trial and looks a ready-made two-year-old. But the Peter and Paul Snowden stable has a strong presence with three starters including Close To Me and Endorse. They have both trialled well, particularly Close To Me, and the filly will be hard to beat. See You Soon is a filly with some ability who gets in with well after the claim.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note
R2 (1.35pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1800m)
Dufficy: I’m taken with this mare, But I Know. She looks a nice country-class stayer in the making. I like the way she keeps running through the line in her races. She still has a bit of strengthening up to do but I feel 1800m is perfect for her and she will be hard to beat. Fast Talking has really turned the corner for this stable and puts big margins in them, winning three straight then found trouble on the turn at Kensington and should have finished much closer. Black Wand had his first run in seven weeks last start so expect improvement. Ambitious Prince has good, solid open company country form and that usually stands up in Highways.
Thomas: Fast Talking got shuffled back through the field early and was forced deep on the turn but powered home late to run a good fourth behind Miss Einstein at the Kensington track last start. At his previous two runs for new trainer Kody Nestor, he romped home by huge margins at Dubbo and Wellington. Fast Talking drops back to a Highway class 3 today and looks the one to beat. But I Know ran on very well for second to the smart Emanuela over 1600m here last start and is suited getting out to 1800m. Black Wand was fourth in the Emanuela race and stays under notice. Weather Channel also comes out of that 1600m Highway, finishing a good fourth and has strong claims.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fast Talking $6-$4.80-$3.90 ($600 @ $4.20, $500 @ $3.90)
R3 (2.10pm): BRIAN CROWLEY STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: I want to go with Regimental Band. She was a beaten odds-on favourite second-up but I can forgive her. She got into a bumping duel and seemed to lose the plot a bit. They have put a set of blinkers on her and the form around this filly is outstanding through Libertini and Akari. I will take the better odds on her to beat Faretti. He’s the boom colt but he needs to switch off a little bit, however, this is a fast race on paper and he will be there at the finish. Dirty Work has the best form running in the Heritage Stakes and Roman Consul Stakes where he was competitive. He might be still a maiden but he is running in the right races. Diamond Thunder resumes but he did good things during the winter and he will be strong at the end of 1200m.
Thomas: Faretti looked all class winning his maiden with authority and in fast time when resuming on the Kensington track. The little concern is that the minor placegetters that day both ran unplaced in a maiden at the Warwick Farm midweek meeting. However, Faretti has a big boom on him, he was a $2 million yearling, and he has so much upside. Regimental Band found the 1100m too short for her last start but the blinkers go on today and she is another loaded with natural talent. Cardiff ran well against older horses last start and Dirty Work hasn’t been far away in strong company in recent starts.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Diamond Thunder $8-$5.50-$4.80; Faretti $3.50-$2.30 ($2,000 @ $3.50, $1,000 @ $3, $1,600 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.60)
R4 (2.45pm): FILANTE HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: Greyworm is short enough but then I had a look at his opposition and he is probably the right odds. Most of his rivals are first-up but Greyworm is very fit. He bounces on the speed here, he’s racing in great form and will be hard to run down. I liked the way Luvaluva is trialling. She is more of a middle-distance mare but she has shown real desire in her trials and, although she hasn’t won in a long time, I’m expecting a good first-up run. Improvement beat Greyworm home two starts back and is better off at the weights. Order Again has done nothing in his two Melbourne runs but if he found anywhere near his best form, this would be a very suitable race for him.
Thomas: Greyworm should win again. He is so genuine, has a great racing pattern because he jumps and puts himself right in the contest, and he tries very hard. The barrier draw ensures he gets every chance in the run. Improvement is the danger. She is back in her right grade after finishing unplaced at Caulfield. Rancho Notorious is in rare form and is very good value. Gresham has only won four of 30 starts but has been placed in another 18 races. He is quite well in at the weights today and should run his usual competitive race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Greyworm $2.70-$2.40-$2.20 ($2,000 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.50, $600 @ $2.40, $4,800 @ $2.25, $1,200 @ $2.20); Improvement $6-$4.80-$4.60 ($300 e/w @ $6/$2.10)
R5 (3.20pm): THE NIVISON (1200m)
Dufficy: Many chances here, Ray, but I’m confident Pretty In Pink is ready to regain her best form after watching her recent barrier trial with blinkers on. She went like a rocket. She maps well and I’m sure we will see a big improvement from her today. If there is an upset, it will be Celebrity Dream. She comes out of a very hot form race that didn’t suit her at Flemington last start so she will be charging home at the finish. Miss Fabulass is better suited at this weight scale than she was first-up so this race suits her. Ready To Prophet is another who has been freshened up, blinkers back on and comes off an impressive trial. She will be competitive.
Thomas: Reelem In Ruby should have won when resuming as she was held up at a vital stage in the straight before darting through to just miss behind Signore Fox. She is a very competitive mare who has never missed a place in her eight starts, winning three. She is up in grade today but has drawn barrier two and should get the run of the race. I’m really keen on her chances. Miss Fabulass has loads of natural talent and wasn’t far behind Reelem In Ruby last start. Multaja was a beaten favourite first-up at 1000m but is better suited over today’s trip. Ready To Prophet has trialled well between runs and is a classy mare.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Multaja $4.40-$5; Ready To Prophet $11-$8.50; Madam Rouge $6-$4.60; Reelem In Ruby $3.40-$3.70-$3.30-$3.40 ($1,000 x $1,500 e/w @ $3.70/$1.65)
R6 (3.55pm): CITY TATTERSALLS CUP (2400m)
Dufficy: Master Of Wine, to the eye, should win although facts and figures suggests he could be vulnerable as this weight scale doesn’t suit him anywhere near to last start considering his rating. But I’m not letting that get in the way from selecting an emerging stayer. I’m expecting the bookies to takes risks with Master Of Wine considering the circumstances but I think they will pay the price. Attention Run was terrific in The Metropolitan, she did it so tough and stuck on particularly well. Rapido Chaparro looks to get a soft lead and should run the mile-and-a-half right out. Master Of Arts seems to have found form again after two good runs.
Thomas: I can’t tip against Master Of Wine, either. The burst of acceleration he showed to win at Randwick over 2000m last start was exceptional. He put a margin on his rivals and was strong through the line. I take your point, Ronnie, that there is a couple of question marks against him today, most notably the 2400m trip, but I think he will run the trip right out, he is very promising stayer and bad luck is his main danger today. Kelvinside is at huge odds but this stayer is going very well and he’s worth including in multiples. Master Of Arts is another working his way back to top form but might prefer some “cut” in the ground. Attention Run has to rate highly on her very competitive efforts in the Newcastle Gold Cup and The Metropolitan.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Rapido Chaparro $6-$4.40-$4.60; Master Of Wine $2.80-$2.60-$2.40 ($1,000 @ $2.40)
R7 (4.35pm): BONDI STAKES (1600m)
Dufficy: I like the placement of Just Thinkin’ back in distance here after his tough effort to run fourth in the Spring Champion Stakes. He looks to get Colada’s back and be first on the scene. He is the run they have to run down. Bottega with the blinkers on can run well. He just couldn’t get into the race when they ran course record time last start so happy to give him another chance. The great unknown is Kubrick. He has the quality running well in the Golden Rose and his run was inconclusive in the Caulfield Guineas from the wide barrier. He has blinkers on and barrier one today so much be included. Colada was a surprise winner going out hard last time but considering he ran a course record from in front we can’t ignore his effort.
Thomas: Bottega was at short odds when he lost his unbeaten in the Stan Fox Stakes with his third to Colada but I’m prepared to give him another chance today. The blinkers go on so I expect he can settle closer and he does have a very good turn of foot. The 1600m will suit him but might test some of his rivals. Just Thinkin’ is the class runner and must be hard to beat for all the reasons you said, Ronnie. Erno is a reliable, tough three-year-old who has been mixing it with older horses this spring. He’s over the odds. Kubrick didn’t have any luck in the Caulfield Guineas and he could easily return to winning form today.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kubrick $5.50-$4.60 ($1,000 @ $4.60, $500 @ $4.60 TWICE); Just Thinkin’ $3.10-$3.90
R8 (5.20pm): KOGAROO HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: I want to be with Safado. He has had three trials leading into this, he is unbeaten first-up and unbeaten on dry tracks. The only negative is a “sticky” draw that Jason Collett has to overcome and if he does then he’s going to be hard to hold out. I think the danger is Poised To Strike. He never got clear at any stage last start, forget he went around. Ronstar did a good job running on well first-up indicating he has comeback well. Best of the rest is Coterie. They were too sharp for him at 1100m first-up with the big weight and is much better suited here.
Thomas: Safado has plenty of ability and he looks primed for his return to racing. His trials have been encouraging and provided he gets even luck in running, then he should be right in the finish. Testifier is a very interesting runner. He’s unbeaten in three Victoria starts and makes his Sydney debut off two easy trials. Don’t let him under your guard. Coterie is fitter now and I also expect him to run a very competitive race. Ronstar is a capable type and his first-up effort shows he is in for a good campaign.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Poised To Strike $9.50-$7.50; Safado $7-$5-$4.80 ($500 @ $7); Malea Magic $23-$9 ($300 @ $15, $200 @ $12, $400 @ $9.50)
R9 (6pm): DAILY PRESS HCP (1500m)
Dufficy: This is an open race but I just feel Sure Knee back in class looks hard to beat. There was confident support for her first-up, she didn’t run badly, she has carried big weights to victory in the past and I think she is the one to beat. Bergen is the improver. He puts himself straight on the speed, up in distance and fitter for his first-up run. He is a promising type. Romani Girl jumped from 1200m to 1600m last start and just knocked up late but she has returned in very good form this spring. Sausedge has been very impressive in her last two starts and is a mare on the rise.
Thomas: Bergen is building an impressive record with three wins and two seconds from his five starts. He resumed at Warwick Farm earlier this month and looked set to win only to be run down near the line by the race-fit Sakura with Dunbrody Power third. The form from that race has been franked with Sakura and Dunbrody Power winning their next starts. Bergen will be improved by the run and this race sets up well for him. Romani Girl is in very good form, Final Award can win this if he puts it all together, and Sure Knee is a leading chance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sure Knee $6-$5; Sausedge $8-$7.50
THE VALLEY
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
R9 (4.55pm): Cox Plate (2040m)
Dufficy: It’s hard to deny this Japanese mare, Lys Gracieux. She looks an adaptable type, there are no negatives about her, it is well-documented we don’t have a star in our WFA ranks this year so, if she has any luck, she could dominate this race. The forgotten horses are the Chris Waller pair, Kings Will Dream and Verry Elleegant. Kings Will Dream is peaking at the right time, fourth-up off a win and what a story it would be if he came out and won the Cox Plate after injuring himself in the race last year. Verry Elleegant has had a typical Waller set-up going into the race fourth-up off a win. I don’t know about the tight track but the pressure of a Cox Plate suits here. Te Akau Shark isn’t getting the respect he deserves. He is a very good horse who has never run a bad race. I don’t mind him up to 2040m here off that Epsom Handicap form.
Thomas: Avilius is arguably the best WFA horse in the field with three Group 1 wins this season but he has slipped from favour since a fourth in the Caulfield Stakes. The track was very firm that day and the sit-sprint nature of the race was against him. Avilius is a different horse with some give in the track and he will get that at The Valley today. He boasts brilliant acceleration and is over the odds. Cape Of Good Hope was outstanding running down Black Heart Bart to win the Caulfield Stakes at his Australian debut. He is a very talented galloper and, if he handles this track, he is going to be hard to beat. The same applies to Lys Gracieux, the outstanding Japanese mare. If she brings her A-game today, she could blow this field away. I expect Verry Elleegant
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
UNDOUBTED (Race 6 No.2)
Brother to Champagne Cuddles and out of a Group 1 winning mare. This lightly-raced gelding has talent, he just got too far back first-up and struck a Heavy 8 to boot.
NEXT BEST
CAPPAMORE (Race 5 No.8)
Has only won once in 17 starts but she has placed 12 times, eight of them seconds. Beautifully placed here again by Coyle and she’s trialled well.
VALUE BET
DREAM MAIDEN (Race 3 No.5)
More a nightmare than a dream in the Goulburn maiden for this one, another of the Coyle Kembla bound winners (hopefully).
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: JESS TAYLOR
If the TAB had a trainer’s challenge, Jason Coyle would Ajax-like odds today at Kembla. At least we can punt on Jess Taylor, who rides three of them.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 1,8
Race 6: 2
Race 7: 4,6,7,10,12
Race 8: 4
GUNNEDAH
BEST BET
LOOKIN’ ALIVE (Race 5 No.4)
Craig Martin can win the last two at Gunnedah, this one in the penultimate is a consistent gelding who has form around superior horses to these.
NEXT BEST
RAIDED (Race 6, No.1)
This horse is better than country grade, we might even see him in a TAB Highway before Santa rolls into town.
ALBURY
BEST BET
NEVADA DANE (Race 6, No.3)
Speaking of the Highways, Nevada Dane was third in one of them back in July and ran a huge race fresh here on October 12.