Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ron Dufficy likes a Godolphin gelding to take out the Tulloch Stakes while Ray Thomas is keen on a proven wet-tracker to win the Doncaster Prelude.

Godolphin three-year-old Character looks well placed to score at Rosehill on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the big-race chances on a bumper Tancred Stakes meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 4, No.3: CHARACTER

VALUE BET

Race 6, No.5: IMAGING

RAY’S BEST

Race 6, No.4: BRUTALITY

NEXT BEST

Race 3, No.4: MOUNT POPA

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.11: PATERNAL

RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1300m)

Ron Dufficy: I’m not totally sold if it is a heavy track for Dalaalaat but it was the best run when he had too much to do finishing third on the heavy at Rosehill. If they decide to run him the extra 100m suits and I will probably tip him again. I’m wary of his stablemate Strawb. She has won four from six first-up and she has trialled nicely leading into this race. Margie Bee is the one at big odds as she is trialling well, races on pace and handles wet tracks. Holy Reign made good ground late last start and appears big odds.

Ray Thomas: Two Up is a consistent sprinter with a good record on heavy tracks. He tried hard when second in a Rosehill Highway two weeks back and will be in this race for a long way. Dalaalaat comes out of the same race where he ran a close first-up third and he’s suited at 1300m. Margie Bee will be competitive and More Sundays is an each-way chance.

RACE 2: THE SCHWEPPERVESCENCE (1400m)

Dufficy: An absolute lottery. Anything can win. I’m having a throw at the stumps here and will have something on Yankee Hussel at odds. I think she is an improver from what I have seen of her and she will be hitting the line hard. Mumbai Jewel is also drawn wide out which won’t make it easy but I’ve been waiting for her to get to 1400m. The stablemates Boyfriend and Williamsburg both have very good chances.

Thomas: Boyfriend handled the heavy track conditions well when a close second to Sejardan in the Todman Stakes and that looks the right form for this race. El Padrino was a beaten favourite but ran well when fourth in the Skyline Stakes. He looks the main danger but has drawn out wide. Miss Faberge is improving with racing and Peace Officer, at big odds, is capable of being in the finish.

Mount Popa can end a long run of outs by winning the Neville Sellwood Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3: NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000m)

Dufficy: I know he hasn’t won for a long time but this looks a beautiful race for Mount Popa. We know he loves wet tracks and he should get the run of the race. Polly Grey should be forgiven for her failure in the Coolmore Classic on the back-up, it just wasn’t her race. This is a more suitable third-up, 2000m, soft going and no weight. I want to give Maximal another chance. I thought he was going to win the Australian Cup on the home turn but he gave himself a knock and Hugh Bowman eased him down. He deserves respect. Skylab had too much to do second-up and can improve here.

Thomas: I’m also with Mount Popa. He was second-up at 2000m when a close second to Stockman in the Sky High Stakes. Mount Popa looks to be coming up well and he ticks a lot of boxes here. Sky Lab’s two runs back have been very good and he will be finishing strongly. Monegal is always over the odds and she is in the mix and the talented Maximal could win this without surprising.

RACE 4: TULLOCH STAKES (2000m)

Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on Character, he’s come up well. His two runs back have been great and getting to 2000m he should be around the mark. The horse I’m most wary of is Money From The Sky. He is just out of maiden class but he won well last start when he got to the wet track. White Noise, trained by Murray Baker who has a terrific record in this race. He had veterinary excuses when unplaced in the NZ Derby when he started much shorter in the betting than his stablemate Regal Lion. Paternal is doing a good job and has the pedigree to keep improving.

Thomas: Paternal is showing staying potential. He’s won two of his three starts and I liked the way he put away older rivals at Goulburn. This is obviously a jump in grade but he’s a progressive young horse. Sword Point was two months between runs when fourth against older horses at Canterbury and he’s a big improver. Zoumon races on speed making his own luck and Character can stay.

Promise Of Success looks well placed to get back to winning form. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 5: EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500m)

Dufficy: Promise Of Success deserves another chance. She just got too far back in the Coolmore and had to go too wide. This race sets up better and I want to give her another chance. Annavisto is the fresh horse on the scene. It was a big win in good time at Flemington first-up and she did win second-up last campaign. She has a lovely racing style and handles the wet. Krone is the forgotten horse. She has had five weeks and a trial since being a late scratching in the Coolmore. I think the set weights and penalties suit her. Expat had her chance in the Coolmore but might get things run to suit here with less pressure up front in this race.

Thomas: I’m also with Promise Of Success for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. She’s a very good mare and this is her chance. Expat looks likely to get control up front and will take running down. Nimalee was very good when resuming and she’s the defending champ here. Vangelic is fitter now and ready to improve.

RACE 6: DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500m)

Dufficy: This is a nice race for Imaging. He has had a long run of outs but he invariably pulls out a good run fresh and often that is in Group 1 races. He’s resuming in a Group 3 on a wet track, James McDonald takes the ride, we should take notice and snap up the $10. Our Playboy is another fresh horse on the second who ran well first-up at Flemington. He has no weight and loves it wet. Mr Mozart bounced back with a dominant win last start and he enjoys heavy track conditions. Brutality is a big improver and is ready to show his best form.

Thomas: Brutality won the Villiers Stakes back in December and his two runs back have been encouraging. Tough galloper and excels on heavy going. He will go close. Special Reward has raced very well over an extended campaign and Just Folk is another suited by the wet track conditions. Mr Mozart was dominant in the Phar Lap Stakes and although drawn out wide, he is down in the weights.

Queensland Oaks and Australian Cup winner, Duais, can add the Group 1 Tancred Stakes to her record. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7: TANCRED STAKES (2400m)

Dufficy: I would have been a lot more confident on a drier track but I think Duais was outstanding in three runs this preparation. She was so authoritative winning the Australian Cup and I can’t see her going backwards. She should get through the going okay. Spanish Mission could be the danger. He is an adaptable type, he led them up in the Australian Cup and is a strong stayer. I have to take him on trust on the heavy track. Stockman is the best wet-tracker in this field. He had his win at 2000m last start and is ready for 2400m. Think It Over is a terrific horse, he never runs a bad race. I don’t think there is any argument he is a better horse on a dry track but he is competitive on wet tracks, too.

Thomas: Duais was full of running as she powered through the line to win the Australian Cup. Her record on heavy tracks reads three unplaced runs but that is misleading as her effort in the Chipping Norton Stake two starts back when sixth to Verry Elleegant was very good. Duais is the one to beat from Spanish Mission, the English stayer who races up on the speed and is very tough. If the track rating gets back to the soft range, then Think It Over will be hard to beat. She’s Ideel ran second in this race last year and can improve.

RACE 8: VINERY STUD STAKES (2000m)

Dufficy: This race is open for a big upset but I am going with Hinged. She proved it was no fluke winning the Surround Stakes with her very good third in the Coolmore Classic. She is crying out for 2000m and maps well. Gypsy Goddess adds a lot of interest. There is a real X-factor about her winning five straight and the times she has been running suggest she is pretty good. Never Been Kissed has been going great but would prefer her on a drier track. I have to forgive Fangirl as she had too much to do last start.

Thomas: Gypsy Goddess is a talent, unbeaten in five starts and showing loads of staying potential. She’s in the right stable and I’m prepared to gamble she will handle the heavy track. Hinged is flying. She won the Surround and then ran a good third in the Coolmore. Classy filly bred to stay. Pretty Amazing ran up to her name at Goulburn and Fangirl gives the impression she will run a strong 2000m.

Queensland sprinter Maotai can land another Sydney win. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 9: STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: Maotai should be very hard to beat. He was very good winning first-up, had a break between runs, he was a 10-lengths trial winner and is top pick for me. The only danger is Gravina. He wasn’t suited going back in distance last start, he is third-up, back to 1200m, he’s hard to beat. Exoboom has been trialling up nicely, likes it wet, but it’s just whether at 1200m some of the others might be too sharp for him. I can’t leave Count De Rupee out of my numbers, he’s too good a horse.

Thomas: Maotai is a brilliant young sprinter but he has had problems at the barriers in recent weeks. If there are no issues at the start, he will give this field something to chase. I’ve also got the consistent Gravina as the main danger. Splintex always improves second-up and he does handle wet tracks. Trumbull does sprint well fresh and is the value runner.

RACE 10: CLEANAWAY HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: Taksu was too tough last start. He has the inside draw again; I know he is up 3kg but I don’t think that will worry him. He will push forward, contest the lead and is tougher than most. His main danger is Rustic Steel. He was brilliant winning last start and is peaking at the right time. I’m very wary of the import Aleas. He’s had a couple of jump-outs in Melbourne where he has looked good, he is straight to Sydney with McDonald on, he is more of a stayer but watch out for him charging late. Our Intrigue was all set to go at 1900m last week but was scratched. She is back to 1400m and will be running on late.

Thomas: Rustic Steel was so impressive winning his Provincial-Midway Qualifier at Newcastle and third-up here he will be even fitter. He’s drawn ideally and handles wet tracks. Taksu is flying and is the one to beat. Matowatakpe is working his way back into form but has drawn off the track. Astero has also drawn wide but is an-each way contender.

SUGGESTED BETS

Shayne O’Cass’ top picks

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 5, No.2: NORMAN

Ingham/Waller four-year-old on debut after seven trials dating back to November 20. Looks to have ‘something’ there. Market watch advised.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.7: FLORIDA SKY

Same trainer/owners as the dam, Kokomo, who was fast and handy. This filly caught the eye on debut when fourth on the Heavy 8 at Wyong 14-days ago.

VALUE BET

Race 8, No.12: DIVINE BREATH

Talented mare who you could imagine giving the Final a shake; just has to get there first which is the hard bit.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,2,3,5

Race 6: 2,3,4,9

Race 7: 1,3,4,9

Race 8: 2,10,11,2

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Christian Reith should be able to tally up a few points in the TAB Jockeys Challenge (only if they all start).

ARMIDALE

BEST BET

Race 4, No.2: SEMINARA

Cody Morgan/George Altomonte filly who went close to winning on debut at Inverell. Better for the experience.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.10: CUPID’S KISS

Nicconi filly who has placed at three of her eight starts; runner-up at her only visit here. Trialled well ahead of the return.

VALUE BET

Race 7, No.5: MANDALONG TAPIT

Good ‘cups horse’ from the Sue Grills camp who was second in the Quirindi town feature last start. Can go one better this time from the good draw.

PORT MACQUARIE

BEST BET

Race 1, No.4: GOLDEN FANTASY

Placed three out of four on Heavy tracks. Only win so far was here at the home ground.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.1: SHIRAZZLE

Ran a huge race at huge odds in the NRRA Championships Heat finishing fourth to Far Too Easy. That has to be the right form for this.

VALUE BET

Race 5, No.2: OPALEYES

Kris Lees-trained mare who has been going great guns of late. Placed here on a heavy 8 last start.