Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Selica is the favourite in a wide-open Quincy Seltzer at Rosehill but Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy have their eyes on the over the odds Sausedge.

Glen Boss wins on Edison at Royal Randwick Racecourse (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

The Saturday Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances at the nine-race Rosehill Gardens meeting on Saturday.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

Best Bet

Race 5, No. 5: Edison

Next Best

Race 6, No. 7: Accountability

Best Value

Race 8, No. 3: Sausedge

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

ROSEHILL GARDENS

Track: Soft 5.

R1: Schweppes Hcp (1300m)

Ron Dufficy: I’ve been quite taken by Smart Image, his two barrier trials have been fantastic. He looks to have returned in good order. The danger is obviously Kiku. She only won a maiden but did it impressively, sprinting quickly last start. Cultural Amnesia could be left alone in front again and if that is the case he could take running down. El Buena has the blinkers and senior jockey back on, plus an inside draw, so could easily bounce back at odds.

Ray Thomas: Kiku scored with authority over 1400m here last start and won’t have an issue coming back slightly in trip. She is a little awkwardly drawn but drops in weight. Smart Image showed considerable promise in his debut preparation and his recent barrier trials indicate he is ready to pick up where he left off last time in work. Cultural Amnesia and Zoumist, both from the Ryan-Alexiou stable, are coming off good last-start wins.

Smart Image has shown a lot of promise in recent trials and could be in for a big race. returns to scale after winning race 1 the Sky Racing Active Handicap during Sydney Racing at Rosehill Gardens on July 25, 2020 in Sydney, Australia.

R2: Precise Air Hcp (1500m)

Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on Ellsberg. I know he still does a lot wrong but he does have a gear change today (blinkers near side). Although he is still raw, he has the right formlines with his placing in the Spring Stakes last start. Instant Attraction accelerated impressively winning over this track and distance last time and is the main danger. Papal Warrior did enough first-up and gets to 1500m quickly, so fitness levels are vital. Toscanini is a horse heading in the right direction but is facing his biggest test.

Thomas: Ellsberg picks himself. He has more upside than his rivals, the form from each of his three starts has been good and he races on speed making his own luck. Instant Attraction is an improving mare with two wins from her past three starts. She’s racing well. Papal Warrior doesn’t know how to run a bad race and Toscanini is an improving type with successive provincial wins since resuming from a spell.

R3: TAB Highway (1800m)

Dufficy: I like Eva’s Deel back at 1800m. Nothing happened for her at Kembla Grange, where she didn’t get clear running in the straight. Surely her luck turns around here. Proven Class has had a freshen-up and a trial since putting two good city runs together. She has won at 1800m. Can Do It is an improver. Although he is only a three-year-old, he ran faster time than the benchmark race when he won his maiden. Post Free is a horse getting better as her distances increase.

Thomas: We are on the same page again with Eva’s Deel. She gets out to her right distance and is ready to win. Proven Class is a strong finisher and won a Highway in similar grade two starts back. Deadly Impact just missed at the provincials last start and is suited here. All Over Magic is on trial at this trip but gives the impression he should run it out well after his solid last-start third in a Highway over 1600m.

R4: De Bortoli Wines Hcp (1800m)

Dufficy: The Elanora was tough in the Spring Stakes and that is a good formline for this race. He was strong late and the 1800m is suitable. I’ve been waiting for Wairere Falls to get out to this trip. I’m just worried about him getting back in the field as there looks to be only moderate speed upfront, but he’s a good chance. I’m impressed with Dkakuri, the Godolphin three-year-old. He’s a real staying prospect for the future. Atlantic King got too far back in a moderately run race last start and deserves another chance.

Thomas: The Elanora is a promising colt doing good things in his debut preparation. He was under siege in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle but he showed determination to win. The Elanora takes on older horses here but the extra trip won’t be an issue. Namazu, another of the three-year-olds in the field, was doing his best work on the line when fourth in the Spring Stakes and is looking for a middle distance. Prospectus was racing well in Brisbane and was competitive at Newcastle over 1600m. I’ve also got Dhakuri in my numbers as he looks an improving young stayer.

R5: Iron Jack Hcp (1400m)

Dufficy: I think Edison is the bet of the day. I thought he was gallant in defeat after going out hard at Newcastle. The form out of that race has been solid and he looks well placed today. The danger is Enchanted Heart. She is at the top of her game and must be included. Bigboyroy is peaking third-up off a win and he maps well. Onslaught hasn’t won in a long time but there were encouraging signs first-up at Kembla Grange and he is a real dry-tracker.

Thomas: I’m also in Edison’s corner. He has returned to racing in good form this campaign and is bursting to win a race. This is his chance. Onslaught ran so well when resuming, his second-up record is good and he can run well again at big odds. Enchanted Heart just missed completing a hat-trick at Newcastle and will run her usual competitive race. Irish Songs finished strongly to just miss in the Snake Gully Cup at Gundagai and drops 4kg for this race.

Both Ray & Duff are backing Edison in Race 5 at Rosehill. Picture: Getty Images.

R6: Sky Racing Active Hcp (2000m)

Dufficy: Accountability might be a good horse. I love the way he has been going this preparation and I think he is still untapped and hard to beat again. Without Ulusaba in the race, it makes Gone Bye’s task easier to take the early lead without pressure and he is fit. Across Dubai might be hitting his straps now and is back in grade with the claim, although he needs a touch of luck early to get across from his draw. Significance sits in behind the speed here and gives himself every opportunity.

Thomas: Gone Bye dominated his rivals at Canterbury, leading throughout and scoring by a convincing margin. He’s right at his peak and ready for 2000m. Significance may roll forward early, but Gone Bye should get to control the tempo again and will be tough to run down. Accountability scored a surprise win at Rosehill then backed that up at Kembla Grange, winning on protest. He’s a great chance to bring up his hat-trick. Across Dubai has steadily improved with racing and Significance rates among the main contenders.

R7: Members Christmas Hcp (1100m)

Dufficy: I’ve been waiting to back Eleven Eleven. The barrier won’t be easy from the 1100m start but if he has any luck at all finding a position, he is a good chance at big odds. Pandemic is back to 1100m, which I feel suits him, and he gets another chance. Hulk is going great since being trained as a sprinter and is still way down in the weights. He has to be among the leading chances again. Mo’s Crown impressed second-up but he also needs a bit of luck slotting in from his wide draw.

Thomas: Pandemic was never on the track at Kembla Grange and his effort to finish fourth to Mo’s Crown was solid. Fitter for two runs back from a spell and drops 3kg. This is his optimum race distance and he gets the good track he prefers. He is my bet of the day. Hulk is racing well and gets in with a light weight. Poetic Charmer won when resuming last time in and his recent trial efforts suggest he is here to run a big race first-up. The underrated Mo’s Crown impressed last start and he can win again.

R8: Quincy Seltzer Hcp (1350m)

Dufficy: I like Sausedge at odds. She was scratched last week and kept for this race. She is over the odds and comes off a luckless effort at Gundagai last start in a strong race. I think she can get over the top of them. In Lighten Me was a total forgive run from the wide draw first-up at Kembla Grange and maps much better here. She is another one over the odds at double figures. Turnstyle will make her own luck and is desperate for a change of luck. Miss Redoble missed the start at Kembla Grange but caught the eye late and is another good longshot.

Thomas: In a race of many chances, I think Invinciano can race well fresh. She hasn’t won in five five-up attempts but she has been unlucky in a couple of those, including her second at Warwick Farm in September. She then won twice in succession and has been freshened for a summer campaign, coming off a soft trial. Her best form is on top of the ground. Sausedge looks hard to beat for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. Selica is a handy mare and she looked sharp in a recent trial. Wild About Her races well fresh and is over the odds.

Sausedge is over the odds after a scratching last week. Picture: AAP.

R9: Rosehill Bowling Club Hcp (1200m)

Dufficy: Rammstein is the forgotten horse — he just had too much pressure over-racing last start. I think he is a promising horse who can get across in the first four or five and prove hard to beat. Bold And Wild is one at odds who can improve sharply. He pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia last start and has since trialled well. Big Parade was backed as if unbeatable but was too aggressive when resuming at Kembla Grange, so he could improve with the blinkers off. Dunbrody Power will be charging home as she usually does in her races.

Thomas: Surreal Step shouldered a big weight at Newcastle and tried hard in finishing a close second. Fitter for three runs from a spell, ready to win and James McDonald stays with the sprinter, which is a strong pointer for punters. Needs luck from his wide draw but is at value odds. Above And Beyond has returned in good form and is again over the odds. Big Parade is drawn out wide but he has brilliant early speed and strips fitter for this race. Dunbrody Power is a genuine mare and should be in the finish again.

SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 1 No. 1: Britain

Close relation to Chautauqua whose current P.B was a sub-52 second track/distance win here last preparation. Will take catching back from city grade.

NEXT BEST

Race 5 No. 2: Great Tye

Battled the bias at Canterbury last start. Looking for the mile on a big track and this is not a strong line-up.

VALUE

Race 8 No. 5: Underboss

Kim Waugh trained galloper who resumes in the last today off two hugely impressive trials wins.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Andrew Gibbons may be able to get off to a flying start in today’s TAB Jockeys Challenge aboard Britain.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 2,10

Race 6: 3,4,8

Race 7: 3,8

Race 8: 5, 13

GUNNEDAH

BEST BET

Race 7 No. 2: Mischief Managed

Lightly-raced and handy filly from the prolific Cody Morgan stable. Two runs in this time have been ace and she’s drawn to win today.

NEXT BEST

Race 4 No. 3: Call Me Brad

Was $ into $3.60 at Quirindi last start and was bordering on a certainty beaten! Drawn 2, needs to get out this time.

VALUE

Race 2 No. 9: Inducement

Gerry Harvey’s mare should be able to race super prominent here from barrier 1. Getting close to a win.

ALBURY

BEST BET

Race 6 No. 6: Power Me Up

Local from the Mitchell Beer camp; this son of Pins hasn’t done much wrong at all since he arrived in the border town. Go well.

NEXT BEST

Race 4 No. 9: Nic’s Hero

Getting better with each run, this Gary Colvin bred/owned and trained three-year-old did a fine job on the Heavy 9 at Wagga last start.

VALUE

Race 2 No. 12: Vinnie’s Girl

Another of the Beer brigade who is perfectly placed to score at home today.