Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
A colt with form around Golden Rose hotpot Rothfire has grabbed Ron Dufficy’s attention at Rosehill Gardens, while Ray Thomas is saving his best for last. Plus best bets for Kembla and Gunnedah.
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The Saturday Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances at major Group 1 meetings at Rosehill Gardens and Caulfield on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 5, No.1: WILD RULER
RAY’S BEST
Race 9, No.5: MASKED CRUSADER
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.2: DESTINATION
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
R1 (12.25pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1500m)
Dufficy: There has been some tough Highways of late but none tougher than this one. I feel Wickmo might do something. She is relatively lightly raced, gets to her right distance third-up and races on speed, so I will be having something on her at odds. Scarleo’s form is great except for the day he missed the start in a Highway two runs back. He has since won at Moruya and can run well here with Nash Rawiller on board. Cosmic Haze just found the distance too short first-up in a Highway and has gone back to the races since and run well. Tempel One was good winning his maiden at Scone, sprinting fast final sectionals, and he might have a future.
Thomas: I’m prepared to give Shenandoah another chance at odds. He got on heels and raced ungenerously early so there were excuses for his fourth over 1600m at Canberra last start. The big field should generate sufficient tempo and if Shenandoah can get cover early, he will be finishing strongly. Highbury is at huge odds but is racing well, broke his maiden at Moree last start and gets the run of the race from gate one. Scarleo, a stablemate of Shenandoah, rates highly and I also have the emerging Tempel One in my numbers.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Wickmo $15-$11, Sumdeel $26-$13
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R2 (1.05pm): COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400m)
Dufficy: I keep looking at the speed map and Exemplar just gets complete control. He’s a fit Victorian gelding, he stays well and is going to roll along upfront and prove hard to catch. I’m convinced Attorney has returned a more seasoned and mature horse this preparation, his two runs back have been great and he has won at this distance. Grey Lion has been kept fresh with a trial win earlier this week and the dry track suits. Carzoff is a tough competitor, very genuine and he has James McDonald to ride on a track where he always races well.
Thomas: I’m with Attorney. I concede he is getting to 2400m quickly but I don’t envisage this race will be run at record pace and if it comes down to a sprint home, Attorney has superior speed to his rivals. I am wary of Exemplar because he might get to dictate terms in front. Grey Lion isn’t getting any younger but remains a competitive at this level and he did look sharp in his trial win earlier this week. Raheen House races best on soft tracks but he is the class stayer of the field.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Attorney $6-$6.50-$5.50 ($500 @ $6.50 TWICE, $400 @ $6), Exemplar $4.20-$3.60 ($400 @ $4.20, $750 @ $3.80)
R3 (1.40pm): RANVET HCP (1900m)
Dufficy: Masaff is one, I like this horse. He is warming up to a win and should get a nice run from the draw. Entente didn’t have much room second-up and had a bit to offer. I feel third up at 1900m is ideal for him as well but it’s just how much work he has to do to get across from draw. She’s Ideel has ticked along nicely and gets in with a light weight. Yonkers is well weighted with claim and is a good firmer in the market.
Thomas: She’s Ideel is ready to win. Her two runs back have been solid, including her closing effort to just miss when third behind Badoosh over 1800m here two weeks ago. Promising mare, drops significantly in weight and she is unbeaten third-up from a spell. Entente has drawn the car park but if he can slide across early, he will take up a controlling position on speed and will be hard to beat. Costello is fitter for two runs back and is up to his right distance range.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Yonkers $12-$5.50 ($350 x $500 e/w @ $12/$3.80, $300 @ $12, $200 e/w @ $12/$3.80, $500 @ $11, $250 e/w @ $9.50/$3.10, $400 @ $7), She’s Ideel $3.80-$4.20
R4 (2.15pm): GLOAMING STAKES (1800m)
Dufficy: It’s hard to get away from Love Tap. I know all his three wins have been in the country but he has done it in style. He looks a progressive young stayer. A longshot here is Street Dancer. I liked the way he sprinted home at Newcastle and he could take ownership of this race upfront. Lion’s Roar has done nothing wrong, having been beaten only once in three starts and that was by Mo’unga, so that form reads well. Achiever ran nice time finishing second at Canterbury and is on the improve.
Thomas: Love Tap has beaten older horses in each of his three starts, dominating his rivals at Goulburn at his most recent run when he won by a margin and with impressive closing sectionals even though he wasn’t fully tested by his rider. Promising young stayer. I’ve got Lion’s Roar is also an emerging three-year-old and he was strong through the line over 1600m at the provincials last start. Bucharest didn’t have much luck at Warwick Farm but his two previous wins were full of promise. Cadenabbia did well to score at Canterbury and should only continue to improve.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Love Tap $2.25-$2.30-$2.25 ($8,000 @ $2.30, $2,000 @ $2.30, $500 @ $2.30 MULTIPLE TIMES), Lion’s Roar $9.50-$7-$5 ($400 e/w @ $9.50/$2.60, $400 @ $6.50, $400 @ $6)
R5 (2.50pm): HERITAGE STAKES (1100m)
Dufficy: I’m keen on Wild Ruler. He has had his two trials, this is a lovely race to resume in and he did run into Rothfire over the winter. I feel he can get his confidence back here. Sixgun is a good chance at odds. He has a better draw and if he jumps on terms with them, he has a bid drop in weight and can run a race. Forbidden Love is a good style of filly, puts himself in a good position and looks tough. I’m not totally sold on her coming back to 1100m but she has a chance. Osamu just missed in fast time in maiden class at Warwick Farm and has always been a horse with promise.
Thomas: I don’t mind Destination each way. He’s fit after three runs from a spell, he’s racing consistently and comes off a close second to Prime Star over 1100m here. Drawn the inside gate, will stalk the leaders and he will be strong late. Forbidden Love tried hard behind top fillies Dame Giselle and Hungry Heart in the Furious Stakes and she has the talent to be competitive against the boys. Sixgun is still doing plenty wrong in his races but he has obvious ability. Chianti is an emerging filly who can run a race at odds despite her wide draw.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Wild Ruler $8-$5.50-$5 ($500 @ $6 TWICE, $500 @ $5.50, $500 @ $5), Rocketing By $51-$26, Pazienza $51-$19
R6 (3.30pm): SHANNON STAKES (1500m)
Dufficy: Looks Like Elvis has put two good runs together despite having no luck in either race. Nudge did a good job running on strongly over an unsuitable distance and I’m sure she will be hitting the line hard. I Am Superman is a month since looking good first-up at Caulfield. He appears a more seasoned horse this campaign and gets his chance again. Scarlet Dream can sprint well fresh and loves dry tracks. She looks a good longshot.
Thomas: I Am Superman impressed when resuming at Caulfield winning with authority over 1400m. He should be improved by the run, gets the dry track he needs, should be able to slot in with cover and be in the finish. Looks Like Elvis is due for a change of luck and he’s among the main chances. Scarlet Dream sprints well fresh, has track conditions to suit and is worth including in multiples at big odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: I Am Superman $4.40-$3.80-$3.90 ($500 @ $4), Looks Like Elvis $11-$7.50-$7 ($2,750 @ $7)
R7 (4.10pm): GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)
Dufficy: I can’t get away from the brilliant Queenslander Rothfire. He laid his cards on the table big time in The Run To The Rose and he did win the Group 1 JJ Atkins second-up at 1400m last preparation. North Pacific can improve. He is a lovely horse and just wasn’t sharp enough coming back in distance last time. Now he is at 1400m, you will see a better horse. Ole Kirk ran well in two fast-run races and he sets up well as he was placed at a mile in the Champagne Stakes last preparation. I would not be surprised if King’s Legacy runs on hard into the placings. He did enough first-up and this is more his go out to 1400m.
Thomas: I’ve got the same top four. Rothfire was simply too good for his rivals in The Run To The Rose. He took the field up to the tearaway frontrunner Farnan then was still good enough to accelerate clear for a commanding win. Rothfire has the tactical speed to negate his awkward draw. It’s hard to tip against him, but I’m wary of North Pacific and Ole Kirk. The Team Hawkes-trained duo ran on well to finish in the placings behind Rothfire last start and are suited out to 1400m. King’s Legacy is the big improver. He won the Group 1 ATC Sires Produce Stakes over 1400m second-up in the autumn and he will be running on strongly.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Rothfire $2-$1.95 ($5,000 @ $2, $2,000 @ $2 TWICE, $500 @ $2 MULTIPLE TIMES, $480 @ $2, $5,000 @ $1.95, $4,500 @ $1.95, $2,250 @ $1.95, $2,000 @ $1.95 MULTIPLE TIMES, $1,750 @ $1.95, $1,300 @ $1.95, $1,000 @ $1.95 MULTIPLE TIMES), Peltzer $9-$7-$7.50
R8 (4.50pm): GOLDEN PENDANT (1400m)
Dufficy: I’m tipping a minor upset with the stablemate of the favourite Subpoenaed. She has got back and run on strongly in her two runs from a spell, she has a beautiful draw and hopefully can settle closer than midfield. With plenty of speed on upfront, if they open up late for her she can get over the top of them at the end of 1400m. In saying that, Haut Brion Her looked absolutely brilliant winning first-up after a long spell. She is unbeaten second-up and only has to reproduce that effort to be the one to beat again, although she has bit of work to do from the outside draw. Emeralds has different form and it was a total forgive run at Wyong when nothing went right for her after a soft win at Canterbury. Positive Peace has some impressive statistics in her favour — she has barrier one, five from six at 1400m, two from two at the track and distance and three from three second-up, so I’m anticipating a much better run from her.
Thomas: Haut Brion Her was first-up for 10 months, drew wide, showed speed to settled on-pace in a fast-run race but kept going to score an impressive comeback win in the Sheraco Stakes. She has drawn wide again but this mare can only be improved by her recent run and is the one to beat. Evalina made up a lot of ground to just miss a place behind Haut Brion Her last start and the step up to 1400m suits her. Jen Rules also comes out of the Sheraco and ran a blinder to finish second. She’s got to be included as one of the main chances. Subpoenaed will be finishing fast.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Haut Brion Her $2.90-$2.40 ($400 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.60, $2,000 @ $2.40, $1,000 @ $2.40, $500 @ $2.40 MULTIPLE TIMES), Adelong $26-$18 ($5,000 e/w @ $19/$4.60)
R9 (5.25pm): QUAYCLEAN HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: It’s hard to get away from Masked Crusader. The only negative I can find is he’s jumping from 1100m to 1400m but it’s a lovely race for him. If he jumps, he gets a nice run on the pace and has to be the one to beat. Bottega is the danger. He has had one barrier trial, where he wasn’t asked to do anything, and has a touch of quality. Look out for him late. Rocha Clock is usually better second-up but she should be running on strongly. Mirra Vision did enough when resuming to suggest she will be competitive.
Thomas: Masked Crusader has been bereft of luck in two runs back. He finished fast but just missed behind a race-fit Varda on a heavy Randwick track when resuming, then last start was never on the track and his effort to finish third here a fortnight ago was outstanding. From barrier two, he will get the run of the race and just needs clear galloping room from the turn. He’s bet of the day for mine. Rocha Clock is a promising mare and she will be running on strongly. Prime Candidate enjoys racing on this track and he will be the one to catch. Dancing Gidget has held her form over an extended campaign and is well weighted.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Masked Crusader $2-$1.90-$1.95-$1.90 ($4,000 @ $1.95, $1,000 @ $1.95, $500 @ $1.95 MULTIPLE TIMES, $1,000 @ $1.90, $500 @ $1.90 TWICE)
CAULFIELD
R8 (5.05pm): UNDERWOOD STAKES (1800m)
Dufficy: Russian Camelot is hard to get away from as he was outstanding covering ground when resuming in a slowly run race. I like him drawn out wide with his barrier antics and more speed upfront suits him. Arcadia Queen was much better second-up and is a top-class mare when right but the bar plates are still on. Mr Quickie ran well when resuming at Caulfield and Harbour Views is the best of the rest.
Thomas: Russian Camelot endured a tough run and it took and outstanding miler in Fierce Impact to hold him off in the Makybe Diva Stakes when resuming. Provided he has taken no hard from his last-start effort, he should win. Arcadia Queen is a top mare and her second-up effort indicates she is close to her best form. The last time she was out to 1800m, she won the Group 1 Kingston Town Stakes nearly two years ago. Mr Quickie and Humidor are back in good form and should be competitive.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Arcadia Queen $4.40-$5-$4.60, Russian Camelot $2.10-$1.95 ($5,000 @ $2.10, $500 @ $2.10 MULTIPLE TIMES, $3,000 @ $2, $500 @ $2 MULTIPLE TIMES, $400 @ $2)
RAY THOMAS’S INSIDE MAIL
THE BEST BARRIERS
The best barriers at Rosehill Gardens for the last 3 years (in order of wins)
1100m: 4, 1, 3, 5
1400m: 3, 6, 2, 4
1500m: 4, 2, 5, 1
1800m: 2, 1, 3, 4
1900m: 2, 3, 4, 1
2400m: 3, 1, 2, 9
EARLY QUADDIE
Race 2: 3, 5, 6
Race 3: 9, 14
Race 4: 3, 4, 5, 6
Race 5: 2, 8, 10, 13
QUADDIE
Race 6: 5, 6, 8
Race 7: 1, 4, 5
Race 8: 2, 6, 7, 10
Race 9: 5, 8
PRICE CHECK
Rothfire (race 7) has been backed as if unbeatable in the Golden Rose. The brilliant Queensland three-year-old is $2 into $1.95 with some big bets of $5,000 at $2, $2,000 at $2 twice, $5,000 at $1.95, $4,500 at $1.95, $2,250 at $1.95 and $2,000 at $1.95. If he wins the Golden Rose, he will be the shortest favourite to win in the race’s history, breaking the record of Denman, who won at $2.40 in 2009.
TRIAL POINTERS
Grey Lion (race 2) will line up in the Colin Stephen Quality alongside his well-credentialed stablemate Attorney. Interestingly, Grey Lion is bred on the same cross that produced the unbeaten, 10-time Group 1 winner, Frankel. Grey Lion is a tried and true stayer who was well down the order in the Premier’s Cup last start but only beaten five lengths. Grey Lion indicated that he is on target for a return to form with a narrow but impressive trial win at Warwick Farm on Tuesday morning.
Bottega (race 9) is a son of Snitzel co-trained by Gerald Ryan, who is a master of the stallion’s progeny having also trained him throughout his glorious career. Bottega races in the same colours as his dam, Bennetta, who finished third in the Golden Pendant in 2013. Bottega holds plenty of residual fitness from his last campaign where he won up to 1800m. Nash Rawiller rode him in his 1030m heat at Rosehill on September and while he clocked in last of the nine he was held up all the way in the straight and was full of running. Take note that Bottega beat Brandenburg easily on debut in a Newcastle 1300m maiden.
SECTIONAL STARS
Ole Kirk (race 7) has been set for the Golden Rose since at least his third in the Champagne Stakes to end his impressive two-year-old season. The Team Hawkes-trained colt has been the eye-catcher in both runs this campaign notably his last-start second in the Run To The Rose behind Golden Rose favourite Rothfire. Ole Kirk reeled off a 32.84s last 600m, which was judged as the fastest three furlong sectional of the entire meeting.
Subpoenaed (race 8) is a Chris Waller-trained mare tackling the Golden Pendant. The Kiwi-bred mare is known for her booming finish which she put to good use in the fast run Sheraco Stakes (1200m). The daughter of Rip Van Winkle was last of 16 at the 800m but managed to get within two-lengths of the winner and stablemate Haut Brion Her thanks to her 33.21s last 600m. Steps to 1400m, a distance where he record reads 6 starts for a win and three placings.
THE JUDGMENT
What the experts say ...
ROSEHILL GARDENS
R6: SHANNON STAKES (1500m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “I Am Superman has come back in great shape. Backed-up his trial form with a strong first-up win at Caulfield and can go right on with it. Looks Like Elvis is ready to perform.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “One at massive odds here in Scarlet Dream. Resumes off an easy trial with no blinkers and her first up record is four starts for four seconds. She is a dead set dry tracker where her record stands at nine starts for two wins (her only ones) and four runners up spots. This is not a deep race but she’ll have to go back from the wide draw. Quackerjack gets the blinkers on.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Looks Like Elvis did not have an easy run in the Tramway but still finished within two lengths of the winner. Nudge ran well first up and with any improvement can cause a boilover.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “The punters haven’t hesitated to take the price about Looks Like Elvis. He shapes as a great each-way proposition after opening at $11.’’
Verdict: LOOKS LIKE ELVIS
R7: GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “Rothfire was simply too good for them in the Run to the Rose and he’s already proven at 1400m. Clearly the one to beat again. Ole Kirk chased hard when runner-up behind Rothfire in the Run to the Rose. Biggest threat. North Pacific set for this race.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “A re-run of the Run To The Rose with six from nine coming through that race. It has to be run at a gentler speed. I’m happy to play against Rothfire at his current red odds. Think his right price is $2.50. Expecting Ole Kirk to position up much closer from this soft draw and he has been completely run off his legs early in his two runs back. Now at 1400m without the early pressure will be hard to hold out. King’s Legacy, unbeaten second-up including a Group 1, the big improver.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Rothfire was outstanding here two weeks ago winning the Run to the Rose. He ran straight past Farnan and the others couldn’t keep up. He will be able to sit outside the lead and should be too strong for them in the straight. The Hawkes pair of North Pacific and Ole Kirk look the best of the rest.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “All the big money is riding with Rothfire who is commanding an incredible 81 percent of the early investment. Kings Legacy could be the value player for mine.’’
Verdict: ROTHFIRE
R8: GOLDEN PENDANT (1400m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “Haut Brion Her was too tough resuming off a wide gate. Will have to do all of the work again but meets much of the same opposition so can win again. Jen Rules was strongest through the line in the Sheraco so suited out to 1400m. Outback Barbie drawn better this time.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Forgotten runner here in Emeralds. Total forgive at Wyong when in the car park last 500m. Soft draw and some good speed here sees her very well suited at double figures. Sweet Deal couldn’t possibly do it as tough as she did in the Sheraco from barrier 16, still has 10 but the tempo of a 1400m suits her better. No knock on Haut Brion Her except the $2.40.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Haut Brion Her’s return to racing was terrific. She worked hard to cross from barrier 13 and was still too sharp for them. She steps up to 1400m and has to do it from the wide draw again but she is a deserved favourite. Sweet Deal is two from two over the Rosehill 1400m and looks worthy of an each way ticket.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “While Haut Brion Her holds most of the early money don‘t be surprised to see Jen Rules and Seasons figure in the finish either. They have had specking at the each-way odds.’’
Verdict: HAUT BRION HER
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 2, No.7: AMULET STREET
Son of Golden Rose winner Epaulette and boasts Bounding Away as his third dam! Four starts, four seconds — this is his day, surely.
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.11: LORETTA
Royally bred Chris Waller-trained filly has trialled within herself all the way through but certainly looks to have something behind her.
VALUE
Race 6, No.13: FORTUNE SEEKER
Daughter of Nick Vass’s No Looking Back, this Tulloch Lodge filly was very impressive winning on debut in Canberra.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
LEE MAGORRIAN has a few handy rides at Kembla, notably Xylaroo for Chris Waller in the Windang Maiden (1400m).
QUADDIE
Race 4: 6, 7, 8
Race 5: 2, 5, 11
Race 6: 9, 13
Race 7: 2, 5
GUNNEDAH
BEST BET
Race 4, No.2: SCHAPPOSE
Handy type who never runs poorly no matter what the standard of the opposition. Runner-up in a TAB Highway before another placing last start at home.
NEXT BEST
Race 6, No.6: ASTROBABY
A daughter of 2006 Golden Rose winner Court Command, this locally trained mare has only won one from 17 but has placed nine times, seven of those are seconds.
VALUE
Race 5, No.7: AUBREY SKIES
Won a similar race here two weeks ago. That was her first time to track, easy to understand why Rodney Northam is coming back again.