Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances of each runner in the $7.5m Golden Eagle, plus their top tips in every race at Rosehill.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the big-race chances on Golden Eagle Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST VALUE
Race 2, No.6: LORD ARDMORE
Race 9, No.3: EASY CAMPESE
RAY’S BEST
Race 4, No.4: DIFFERENT STROKES
NEXT BEST
Race 8, No.6: DELEXO
VALUE BET
Race 9, No.1: EQUATION
RACE 7: GOLDEN EAGLE (1500M)
PRIVATE EYE
Ron Dufficy: He handles all conditions, has been kept fresh with a trial since his Epsom win and he will be charging home again.
Ray Thomas: Private Eye came from last on the turn to win the Epsom brilliantly last start. Expect much of the same here – he will be a long way back on the turn but will be finishing fast.
I’M THUNDERSTRUCK
Dufficy: I’m a huge fan of this horse who has burst on the scene winning three of his past four starts including a Group 1 Toorak. From the nice draw, he will settle midfield and be hard to hold out.
Thomas: There has been a very confident move for I’m Thunderstruck who dominates the betting now. He just might dominate the race, too
AEGON
Dufficy: The barrier draw hasn’t helped Aegon who probably has to go back in the field further than they would like. His only run here was a big win in the Hobartville Stakes and he could surprise.
Thomas: Aegon struggled in Melbourne earlier this spring but he has since returned to New Zealand and trialled well, pleasing his trainers. If he is at his best, he can figure in the finish.
APACHE CHASE
Dufficy: I love this horse. Apache Chase drives forward, has determination, looks to lead and is set to run an almighty race.
Thomas: I can see why you are a fan of Apache Chase. He’s going to be on speed, out of trouble and will take plenty of catching from the turn.
AYSAR
Dufficy: He hasn’t fulfilled the early promise and I think maybe the last bit of 1500m may test him but his Rosehill trial was good.
Thomas: Aysar has ability and did run a very good race at Group 1 level two starts back but it would be a surprise if he won this race.
AIM
Dufficy: Aim did get the breaks in the Silver Eagle but he did the job well. His main issue is definitely running a strong 1500m as I regard him more as a dry track sprinter.
Thomas: Aim gets the strong tempo and dry track to produce his best as he demonstrated winning the Magic Millions 3yo Guineas and Silver Eagle this year. The concern is running 1500m right out.
AMISH BOY
Dufficy: This horse is probably the best longshot. He hasn’t won in 600 days but he is a big-time performer with form around the right horses.
Thomas: Amish Boy was the “hidden” run in the Silver Eagle. He ran seventh without getting much galloping room. I agree, he is good value at big odds.
EXOBOOM
Dufficy: Exoboom is hitting a peak fourth-up after his strong win last Saturday. Tough horse and among the main chances.
Thomas: I liked the way Exoboom found the line to win well at Randwick last week. He’s hit form at the right time and I expect another competitive effort.
ELLSBERG
Dufficy: He has been trained to the minute, has the perfect draw to stalk Apache Chase, and his two runs over the 1500m here were very good. Sure to run a big race.
Thomas: I’ve got Ellsberg as my top selection. This is such a deep race, luck in running is going to be vital and this race sets up for Ellsberg. He’s genuine, talented and goes well over the Rosehill 1500m course.
LOVE TAP
Dufficy: He is nice and fresh, five weeks and a trial which he likes, another one favoured by an inside draw and maps well. He’s good value.
Thomas: Love Tap is not without a chance. He has won up to 1800m and has the tactical speed to take advantage of his good draw.
COUNT DE RUPEE
Dufficy: Count De Rupee is going better than ever and should have won the Silver Eagle. I’m not sure if this is his best distance but the good draw helps his chances.
Thomas: He ran a mighty race in the Silver Eagle after being shunted off the course on the home turn. If he stays a strong 1500m he is right in this contest.
LAWS OF INDICES
Dufficy: He deserves plenty of respect. He is a Group 1 winner in France earlier this year where he showed a lot of fight. I’m not sure about the barrier first time around Rosehill.
Thomas: Laws Of Indices has obvious talent but he is first-up on a firm deck from a wide barrier which is a concern. He is going to need everything to go right for him.
MAXIMAL
Dufficy: Maximal has serious form around the world class Baaeed, we all know he is beautifully bred and everyone seems excited by him but the barrier draw has done him no favours.
Thomas: Maximal, the three-quarter brother to Frankel, has been competitive against some of the best three-year-olds in England this year but he has drawn the “visitor’s gate”.
REVE DE VOL
Dufficy: This will be a stern test for the sprinters so are we looking more for a 2000m horse like Reve De Vol? He is very strong, comes out of a Group 3 in Ireland and the high pressure suits him.
Thomas: Reve De Vol doesn’t have the form of the other imports Laws Of Indices and Maximal but he will be running on strongly.
FORBIDDEN LOVE
Dufficy: She was very good last start but there is a touch more depth to this race against the boys. I feel her best chance is if we get some rain.
Thomas: Forbidden Love ran well for third in The Invitation last week, her best run this spring. She’s working her way back into form but her wide barrier is a concern.
VANGELIC
Dufficy: She toughed it out again last week. She is meeting some hard heads here and won’t get control up front but is a place chance again.
Thomas: Vangelic did win the Golden Pendant over 1400m here three starts back with a typically tough, frontrunning effort. She was good again last week and will be in this for a long way.
MEDIA AWARD
Dufficy: I thought she ran well last week and with more pressure on in this race, it will help her finishing burst. No surprise to see her running on well.
Thomas: Media Award wasn’t beaten that far in The Invitation. She’s an underrated mare and is one of the better longshots in the race.
ATISHU
Dufficy: Atishu is a good mare who has come a long way in a short time. She has got to deal with a wide draw so a lot has to go right for her.
Thomas: Atishu loomed up as a winning chance in the Epsom and her effort to finish sixth was full of merit. If she can reproduce her Epsom run, she will go close here.
EMERGENCIES
OUR PLAYBOY
Dufficy: He needed a rain-affected track to be competitive at this level.
Thomas: Our Playboy is at $101 for a reason. It would be a shock if he won this race.
WHEELHOUSE
Dufficy: I thought he produced an enormous run in the Sydney Stakes. He’s ready to win but not sure if this is the race.
Thomas: I don’t think Wheelhouse should be $101. If he gets a start, he is capable of running well.
BLONDEAU
Dufficy: He is yet to finish further back than fourth in eight runs this preparation and he’s a horse that knows how to hit the line.
Thomas: Blondeau is $151 – but as you pointed out he is never far away including his fourth in the Silver Eagle last start.
GOLDEN EAGLE SUMMARY
Dufficy: I’m with I’m Thunderstruck. He’s an exciting horse and can win the Golden Eagle. Apache Chase is the one they all have to run down. Private Eye can never be underestimated and Ellsberg tags the speed and is ready for a peak performance.
Thomas: I have the same top four with Ellsberg on top. I just think he gets the right run and should go close. Private Eye will be giving his rivals a start from the turn but he will be flying home. I’m Thunderstruck and Apache Chase will be hard to beat.
RACE 1: THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HCP (1200M)
Ron Dufficy: I think Katalin is the horse to beat. She’s unbeaten fresh, loves the dry track where her two wins have been and she does appear well fancied. I wish there wasn’t so much speed for Selburose as she is much better from the front but she can run time and bears respect. Georgie’s Pride is a real runner and will give a good sight up front. Newsreader ran much better with the blinkers in a recent trial.
Ray Thomas:Katalin is a brilliant mare fresh and I’ve also got her clearly on top. Seleque is consistent, gets the right run and will be in the finish. Newsreader is a big watch here, she is ready to improve, and Selburose will be hard to beat again.
RACE 2: FUJITSU GENERAL HCP (1900M)
Dufficy: There is good value in Lord Ardmore. He’s on the back-up, stepping out in distance, has an inside and I’ve liked what he has done in his two starts back this preparation. Mightybeel has returned a more finished article and is in fine form. Solar Apex hasn’t done too much wrong and is well placed again. Margie Bee is a real tough, frontrunning type.
Thomas: I’m giving Solar Apex another chance. The race didn’t work out for him last start but he still found the line well. Racing very well and should be in the finish again. Mightybeel is in great form, Margie Bee is genuine and very determined, and Dinado is back in form and can be competitive.
RACE 3: TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1200M)
Dufficy:Blow Dart went amazing last start, he sat three deep outside the leaders and stuck on well to be beaten less than a length. I feel he has a good chance in an open race. Casino Kid hit the line hard first-up and the extra 100 suits him. Tejori comes out of a very fast midweek race and the inside draw is gold. Chevconi is a very green horse but I’ve liked what he has done in his two runs back and he is in good hands.
Thomas: I like Casino Kid. He ran well first-up and will be better at 1200m. Chevconi is a promising type chasing a hat-trick of wins. Ice In Vancouver is talented, drawn perfectly and this race sets up well for him. Private Agent has drawn wide but is value at double figure odds.
RACE 4: THE FOUR PILLARS (1500M)
Dufficy: I feel Daralina Belle is a nice mare who was impressive winning her first three starts and I want to be forgiving of her last start second as she has five weeks between runs on a heavy track. She maps nicely. I have to admire the way Different Strokes has glided the way through his classes and wants to hit the line. I’m convinced Conrad is the best horse in the race but he is coming off a setback here. Highly Desired won well first-up and will run the trip better than most.
Thomas: I’m with the Kim Waugh stable to quinella the inaugural Four Pillars with Different Strokes and Conrad. Different Strokes has been very impressive and is the one to beat while Conrad has the ability to test his stablemate. Daralina Belle hasn’t done much wrong and All Machiavellian can run a race at big odds.
RACE 5: ROSEHILL GOLD CUP (2000M)
Dufficy: I’m with Gold Trip. He is a highly regarded French import who was controversially scratched from the Cox Plate when he one of the fancies. If he was fancied for a Cox Plate, he should be hard to beat in this. Think It Over has won three of his last four starts at top grade but he is not as well suited here with 61kg. Lion’s Roar is slowly coming right and fits in well at the weights. Although I have never considered Rock a 2000m horse, if this is a stop-start race then he might have a better turn of speed than most.
Thomas: I’ve gone the other way, Ronnie, and staying with Think It Over. He’s in a rich vein of form, he excels at 2000m and although he has to carry the big weight, he can win again. Gold Trip is the main danger for all the reasons you mentioned. Sky Lab and Lion’s Roar both ran well against Think It Over last start.
RACE 6: CLASSIQUE LEGEND STAKES (1300M)
Dufficy: I’m with Eduardo, Ray. He was gallant in defeat in The Everest and that has to be the form for this race. I feel he goes better at Rosehill and I’m happy to take the risk with him at 1300m. We know Masked Crusader is a very talented horse and we also know what to expect from him – it will be hold your breath and hope he gets a clear run. Lost And Running is on an upward spiral and I can’t see why Libertini is a $34 chance as nothing went right for her in The Everest.
Thomas:Masked Crusader’s effort in The Everest was outstanding and I think going to 1300m is more to his advantage than Eduardo’s. They are both super sprinters and this clash is vying for race of the day. Libertini gets the dry track she needs and Gytrash has become the forgotten runner.
RACE 8: NED WHISKY HCP (1100M)
Dufficy: I want go to the well with On The Lead. I know he seemed to have his chance last start but the leader kept running. On The Lead is back to 1100m and I’m happy to give him another chance. Delexo went like a rocket last start to win in track record time. He should find the front again and only has to run an extra 100m. Liberty Sun and Redoute’s Image should run well.
Thomas:Delexo is flying at the moment but all his best form is over 1000m. The Rosehill 1100m course on a dry track often favours leaders and I think he can hang on. Fox Fighter is back to his right distance and he has been running very fast times over sprint trips. On The Lead is racing well.
RACE 9: SCHWEPPES HCP (1500M)
Dufficy: I like Easy Campese at odds. His three trials have been very good, I like this horse, he’s had a nice grounding and is worth something at odds. Golly I’m Lucky is working his way back into form. Ma And Pa is a tough, on-pacer racing in great form and Equation is running out of excuses but this looks the right race for him.
Thomas: I’m giving Equation another chance. He’s a talented galloper but not much has gone right for him so far this spring. He will be hitting the line hard. Ma And Pa is racing his way through the grades impressively and Golly I’m Lucky has place claims.
RACE 10: TAB NOT ONE DAY HCP (1300M)
Dufficy: This is the toughest race of the day. There is a lot of speed up front and I’m tipping Ventura Ocean can improve. He loomed to win but didn’t quite finish off last start but this suits. Cuban Royale is suited here from the good draw and dry track. Zoushack took control and earned the race last start. There is more pressure here from a wide draw but he will be hard to beat again. I don’t want to let Visinari under my guard at big odds.
Thomas:April Rain has drawn off the track but if the stable decides to run, I want to be with her. She was very good first-up and looks set for a good campaign. Zoushack has also drawn wide but he is racing well. Exceltic gets back but he does find the line strongly. Promotions sets up well for this race and is one of the main chances.
SATURDAY EXTRA
BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS
NEWCASTLE
BEST BET
Race 1, No.6: MOUNT SMART
NZ bred son of the promising young stallion Tivaci. This Kris Lees-trained gelding did everything to impress winning his trial here 17-days ago.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.11: TAVI L’AMOUR
They don’t come much better bred than this Tavistock, Eight Carat descendant. Got quality from nose to tail and is bound for better races.
VALUE BET
Race 4, No.8: I AM NEFERTITI
Every extra inch of ground will only serve to being out this best in this American Pharoah filly who was 1200m then 1300m and now 1400m.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 5,7
Race 6: 2,3,7
Race 7: 4,7
Race 8: 3,4,12
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Koby Jennings rode Collette to win the $7.5 million Golden Eagle on this day last year. He’s got some nice rides at Newcastle.
COFFS HARBOUR
BEST BET
Race 1, No.5: MISS PIERMONT
Winless after 28 starts but she has placed 10 times and often in better maidens than what she tackles here. Gets her big chance now.
NEXT BEST
Race 3, No.10: OOZES CLASS
Likewise, yet to win a race but she is a consistent mare who is invariably close up at the end of her races. Trained here and well placed.
VALUE BET
Race 6, No.1: BAY OF BENGAL
Sent out some encouraging signs with that first-up fourth at Port Macquarie bearing in mind he goes much better second-up.
DUBBO
BEST BET
Race 1, No.11: RIDERS IN THE STAND
Finally got some reward for effort when she shed her maiden status at Narromine and she did it in style too, winning by close enough to five lengths.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.2: CTHONIA
Honest mare who is ‘212’ ahead of what shapes as another perfectly suitable and winnable assignment for the Mudgee mare.
VALUE BET
Race 4, No.14: SOOSIE BOOG
Looked the part when she won a trial at Muswellbrook 24-days ago. Has the talent and the draw to win.
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