Randwick races: Brad Davidson’s tips and extended preview
Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson reckons Team Hawkes-trained import Mount Popa can snare his first win in Australia at Royal Randwick. FULL ANALYSIS & TAB MARKET MOVERS
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Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets and TAB market movers, for the meeting at Royal Randwick.
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ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Heavy 9. Rail: True.
R1 (11.30am): MAGNA GRECIA HCP (1500m)
OVERVIEW: Happy to be with Angel Helena despite the wide draw here. The track generally plays very fair when the rail is in the true position. She was good at Hawkesbury last start when scoring and her last 600m was about nine lengths quicker than the average for that class of race. Her mum won over 2100m so I don’t think 1500m will be an issue. Silhouette is also bred to get ground and he was a good winner last time out in town although he beat a few first starters and the figures weren’t anything wow. Exhibition can improve out in trip.
ADVICE: ANGEL HELENA to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Angel Helena $5.50-$4
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R2 (12.05pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Really good Highway this with plenty of hopes. I want to be with Bad Boy For Love at the odds. He has had no luck at all of late and finally draws a gate to be closer to the speed. He can only run well with luck. Keen Power looks the horse to beat but he is short enough all the same at $3. He will really appreciate 1200m. Tejori will also appreciate six furlongs, while Tim’s Principal, Kattegat, Dubai Tycoon (sneaky run fresh) and Cyborg are all capable along with other chances at odds.
ADVICE: BAD BOY FOR LOVE the value.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tejori $6 unchanged ($1,500 @ $6, $600 x $400 e/w @ $6/$2.40), Keen Power $3.50-$2.90-$3 ($550 @ $3.50, $420 @ $3.30), New Major $101-$41-$19 ($250 e/w @ $81/$19, $250 e/w @ $41/$10, $200 e/w @ $41/$10)
R3 (12.40pm): GRUNT AT YULONG HCP (1000m)
OVERVIEW: Good little sprint. Broken Arrows had no luck last start and he was only half a length off the flying Adelong prior when giving that horse weight. He is due for a change of fortune. Zaniah returns off a break and she has been trialling particularly well leading into her return. She just has to get through the wet ground. Acumen returns from a break and he ran slashing time when winning first-up last prep. Wet ground is also a slight query with him. Longbottom gets a massive 6kg weight swing on Witherspoon from last start and can park up closer from the good draw here.
ADVICE: BROKEN ARROWS on top but LONGBOTTOM should improve as well.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Broken Arrows $7-$6 ($500 @ $6.50, $400 @ $6.50), Pleasant $23-$17
R4 (1.15pm): CASTELVECCHIO HCP (2000m)
OVERVIEW: French import Mount Popa put the writing on the wall with a good closing fourth first-up in Australia at Flemington first-up and he should appreciate the step up from 1400m to 2000m. He comes through the quickest of four 1400m races on the day and the second horse has already won out of that race. He is a stayer so I think 2000m second-up is OK. Humboldt Current and Elaborate will have admirers as well but I have to be with the horse with upside.
ADVICE: MOUNT POPA to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mount Popa $4.40-$3.60-$3.40 ($500 @ $4.20, $700 @ $3.60, $200 @ $3.60), Animalia $15-$11
R5 (1.50pm): BENTLEY WINTER DASH (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Southern Lad beat all bar Classique Legend last start and the grey galloper is a Group 1 horse. There is no Classique Legend here and he just has to overcome a wide draw to go close. The 1200m suits him better than 1100m. Viridine was super from the back last start but that’s him and he just has that backmarker pattern that means he rarely wins. Invictus Prince was super fresh and I would have preferred 1300m for him but he did beat Southern Lad home first-up and must be in the ball game here.
ADVICE: SOUTHERN LAD to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Viridine $5-$4.20, Southern Lad $3-$2.80, Sandbar $12-$9.50
R6 (2.25pm): HEINEKEN HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: I concede Threeood is going to be pretty hard to beat from the good gate with James McDonald on but I want to make a case for a couple at odds as well. Jay Jay D’Ar and Voila both had to be snagged back from wide gates last start but they found the line well and at double figures, I could speck them here. Jay Jay D’Ar beat Threeood earlier this prep on her merits and actually meets that horse 2kg better off for doing so as well. That was on dry ground though and Threeood is better suited on the wet. Misteed has the form on the board and should go close, while Lillemoor must also be respected with the light weight.
ADVICE: THREEOOD the horse to beat but JAY JAY D’AR and VOILA have hopes at odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Misteed $4.60-$5.50, Threeood $6-$3.60 ($500 @ $6, $500 @ $5.50, $264 @ $4.80, $1,000 @ $4)
R7 (3.05pm): TAB HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Looks a nice enough race for Superium and he gets his chance back in grade to get a win on the board. He has been solid in two runs back and I think he comes through the right form line. Hulk was a good winner two back and then wasn’t far away behind Mo’s Crown last start. I know he has a poor winning strike rate but he is right in this. Monte Ditto, Charretera and Oakfield Twilight all have claims but I’m thinking that might be the weaker form line in this race?
ADVICE: SUPERIUM from HULK.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Superium $4.20-$3.30, Hulk $7-$4.20 ($200 @ $6, $2,000 @ $4.80)
R8 (3.45pm): RANVET HCP (1600m)
OVERVIEW: I liked the way Travancore found the line last start and the extra 100m and another wet track are both ticks. The speed should be a bit more genuine than last start as well. Mr Dependable is the best horse in the race but the main query is whether he gets through wet ground. Chocolatier could also try to keep him from leading. Convinced, Agassi and Orcein are all capable.
ADVICE: TRAVANCORE the value at $12.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mr Dependable $4.40-$3.80 ($800 @ $4.40, $420 @ $3.90), Convinced $8-$6.50
R9 (4.25pm): SKY ACTIVE RACING HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Looks a three-horse race between Spencer, Bandersnatch and Bigboyroy. Spencer is absolutely airborne but whether he handles a wet track is the query. He got through the rain affected conditions at Rosehill last start but I thought it was more a soft track and Randwick is likely to be more testing. Bandersnatch has been a bit disappointing of late but his form ties in OK with True Detective all the same. Bigboyroy had absolutely no luck at Canterbury last start and finds James McDonald here.
ADVICE: Three hopes as the market suggests. Track conditions key. BIGBOYROY if it’s still really testing. SPENCER if the track is drying well.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Spencer $4.40-$4.60-$4.40 ($1,000 @ $4.60, $450 @ $4.60, $500 @ $4.40)