Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy debate the chances of every Melbourne Cup runner
DAILY Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances of every runner in the Melbourne Cup.
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THE Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances of every runner in the Melbourne Cup at Flemington.
DUFF’S CUP TIPS
1. WALL OF FIRE: “I’m convinced he will run well. He has had that lead-up run where he was very good at Caulfield and he is well weighted. There are a lot of positives to recommend him.’’
2. ALMANDIN: “He is a superstar stayer, the defending champ and is ready to go.’’
3. MARMELO: “His Caulfield Cup run was a beauty and he must be respected.’’
4. THOMAS HOBSON: “I’d like to promote him up my list as his is a proven stayer. He is a beauty.’’
FOR THE MULTIPLES INCLUDE: Max Dynamite, Venture Storm, Big Duke, Amelie’s Star.
HARTNELL
Ray Thomas: Hartnell was the Cup favourite last year when he ran third to Almandin but he seems to be the forgotten horse of Tuesday’s field. We know he has the class and ability but his last-start effort when well beaten in the Caulfield Stakes is a concern. He has made a habit of bouncing back off a poor run and he is at backable odds now. His 57.5kg impost is a leveller.
Ron Dufficy: I agree, his class will take him a long way and you can’t sack a good horse like Hartnell on one poor run. I would have liked him to do better last start but he is a two-mile winner and, as you pointed out, he ran third in the Cup last year. I can’t back him but if he gets out to ridiculous odds then I could have something on him at the overs.
ALMANDIN
Thomas: It seems everyone is pinning their hopes on Almandin to lead the home defence. He looked outstanding in the JRA Trophy but he was a little flat in the Bart Cummings when he carried 60kg. Team Williams is very confident he is a better horse than last year and he will need to be because he has 4.5kg more to carry. Outstanding stayer and one of the main chances.
Dufficy: Almandin will be very hard to beat — he is the hope of the Aussie side. He will love this stamina test as I can see this Melbourne Cup being brutally run. Lloyd Williams has won five Melbourne Cups and this could easily be number six. Frankie Dettori will put a few Australian punters off Almandin because he has had 15 Melbourne Cup rides without a win but Team Williams will have its jockey in a confident frame of mind.
HUMIDOR
Thomas: Humidor has the best form line going into the Cup, running Winx to a close thing in an epic Cox Plate. Blake Shinn got Humidor to settle better than anyone else has last start but was that because of the fast pace up front? The Melbourne Cup is run at a slower tempo and Humidor does have a tendency to over-race. He is a huge talent but I am worried about him at 3200m. On the positive side, his jockey is riding brilliantly, Darren Weir has no peer as a trainer of stayers, and the horse loves Flemington.
Dufficy: Cox Plate form usually gets a horse a big tick going into the Cup but I have to oppose Humidor. Every time he has been over a trip (2400m) he has been beaten. In the NZ Derby he did do a few things wrong, then Jameka raced right away from him in The BMW, and he was just behind the placegetters in the Caulfield Cup. He looks to me like a very good 2000m weight-for-age horse who just hasn’t ticked the staying box.
TIBERIAN
Thomas: He is one of the 11 internationals in the race and, of that group, there are seven including Tiberian who have not raced in Melbourne this spring. His form in France is very good but the telling point to me was that Craig Williams had the choice of Tiberian and Wall of Fire and chose the latter.
CHECK OUT OUR MELBOURNE CUP INTERACTIVE BELOW
Dufficy: The statistics are out there that since Vintage Crop no international stayer has won the Cup without a lead-up run in Melbourne. I know his form is outstanding but I have to oppose him because he hasn’t had that lead-up run.
MARMELO
Thomas: The Prix Kergolay winner invariably runs a competitive race in the Melbourne Cup and Marmelo should be no different. His sixth in the Caulfield Cup was arguably the best Cup trial of the spring. He had to make his run wide out on a track that heavily favoured those close to the rail. He has Hugh Bowman to ride, Flemington will suit and his 55kg handicap is a competitive weight. A big chance.
Dufficy: He is the Caulfield Cup horse everyone is singling out and I can understand why that is the case. He is lightly raced but very talented. Bowman is a super rider, particularly of stayers, and he looks to have a lot in his favour. Marmelo should be in the finish.
RED CARDINAL
Thomas: Red Cardinal is my Cup selection, despite the outside draw. I’ve been taken by his appearance at Werribee, he seems to be doing everything right. His win in the Belmont Gold Cup was an exceptional staying effort and there were legitimate excuses for her Kergolay run. No one is riding better than Kerrin McEvoy and he is trained by a genius in Andreas Wohler. He will need luck in running but every horse does in this race.
Dufficy: I can see where you are coming from because this has been a real target race, not an afterthought. He has been sensationally handled by Andreas Wohler, who knows what is required to win the Melbourne Cup. His Belmont Cup win was outstanding then you have to forgive his run in the Kergolay when he got too far back off a slow speed. He is a definite contender.
JOHANNES VERMEER
Thomas: He is a very classy horse but I have a doubt about him at 3200m. He probably should have won both the Caulfield Stakes and Caulfield Cup and he has not missed a beat at Werribee since. His trainer Aidan O’Brien has had a phenomenal year and this could be his chance to finally win the Melbourne Cup.
Dufficy: Sometimes you need a good 2400m European stayer to win a Melbourne Cup because they have a turn of foot which is needed here. But I believed his best chance was if this race was run like the Prince Of Penzance year when they crawled along and I expect this Cup will run at a solid tempo. He is drawn to get a lovely run and that is important. I concede he has a good chance.
BONDI BEACH
Thomas: His past two runs have been poor and he has finished in the second half of the field in the past two Cups. I know he is with Team Williams but I just don’t think he is going well enough.
Dufficy: He has not shown anything in two runs this spring to warrant consideration. There are some coat-tuggers telling you he has jumped out of the ground in recent weeks but he will need to.
MAX DYNAMITE
Thomas: He was desperately unlucky under Frankie Dettori two years ago and he has only had four starts since. He did have a confidence-boosting win last start in Ireland and Willie Mullins is highly regarded as a trainer of stayers. His work at Werribee has been impressive and a fast-run Cup will suit him. He is right in the race.
Dufficy: There is a massive push for this horse. Although he doesn’t fit the profile for a lot of people, I like him a lot. His run in the Melbourne Cup two years ago was outstanding when the tempo was against him. If we get some rain I will have another think about him as I feel he is better with some give in the ground. This will be a totally different Cup than the race he contested two years ago and I rate him highly.
VENTURA STORM
Thomas: Ventura Storm ran well behind the rampant Winx in the Turnbull Stakes, finishing second and beating home Humidor. The stable was very confident about his Caulfield Cup chances but he disappointed that day and was later found to have hoof problems. He has recovered quickly and he is a strong stayer. At $34, he is one of the best outsiders.
Dufficy: No doubt about that, Ray. I really rate this horse. He had been my tip all year until last start. I don’t like backing a horse off a setback, no matter how minor, but everything was ticking over beautifully after the Turnbull Stakes and I want to forget his Caulfield Cup run. I’m definitely putting him in my trifectas.
WICKLOW BRAVE
Thomas: This is a stayer the Irish press who are here for the spring continually refer to as a horse we must respect. His Caulfield Cup run, when he got chopped out coming into the straight, it was better than it looked. There is no doubt he will appreciate getting to Flemington but nine-year-olds don’t win Melbourne Cups. Can this horse rewrite Cup history, Ronnie?
Dufficy: No, I don’t think so. I know he didn’t have much luck at Caulfield and at least he has had that lead-up run I mentioned earlier. But at his age, surely there is no upside to him. He is a strong stayer but he will just battle away.
BIG DUKE
Thomas: He came off a solid second in The Metropolitan to win the St Leger then he started favourite in the Moonee Valley Cup and just missed a place. I thought he was disappointing last start, although the tempo of that race was against him. I wanted to see more from him late. He was placed in the Sydney Cup over 3200m earlier this year when he seemed to have every chance. Good, consistent stayer but I can’t see him winning.
Dufficy: I was warming to him after the St Leger and I want to be forgiving of his Valley run as I’m certain he is a better horse at Flemington. I think he is a top-six chance.
US ARMY RANGER
Thomas: You would think an English Derby runner-up would be among the Cup favourites but he is a $51 chance for a reason. His form since his Derby second last year has been poor and his most recent run at Leopardstown was probably the worst of his career.
Dufficy: His reputation was built early in his career around that Derby effort but his recent form is well below the required standard to win this race. It is impossible to make a case for him.
BOOM TIME
Thomas: Boom Time is by Flying Spur out of a Snippets mare, which might be part of the reason the Caulfield Cup winner is a $26 chance. He will struggle to run the 3200m at this level.
Dufficy: All the stars aligned for him in the Caulfield Cup — he might have won the lottery that day. I just can’t see him being a Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double winner.
GALLANTE
Thomas: Gallante won the Sydney Cup last year but his form subsequently has been ordinary. He struggled in the Melbourne Cup last year and I think he will do so again unless we get some significant rain — and there is none forecast.
Dufficy: He didn’t show enough improvement second-up in the Geelong Cup to recommend him. He does roll along at a good tempo so he should ensure this is a genuinely run Melbourne Cup.
LIBRAN
Thomas: I think he is back to something like his best form but he couldn’t get past Who Shot Thebarman in the Moonee Valley Cup. He has been placed at 3200m before and he is not the roughest in the race but he is another I can’t see winning.
Dufficy: I will be including Libran in my bets because I’m convinced he has been beautifully prepared to peak on the right day. Whether he is good enough to win, probably no.
NAKEETA
Thomas: Nakeeta is the first Scottish stayer to run in the Melbourne Cup and his form has been impressive. He effort to win the Ebor Handicap at York is solid form for this race. He has been working well at Werribee and he is a value runner.
Dufficy: I can’t come at him. I know the Ebor is good form for the Melbourne Cup but I don’t think Nakeeta won the strongest Ebor I’ve seen. I am leaving him out.
SINGLE GAZE
Thomas: Single Gaze is the sentimental favourite for the Melbourne Cup. I backed her each way in the Caulfield Cup when she ran so well for second. I understand there is a big question mark about her at 3200m but there are few tougher, more resilient horses than this little mare. If Kathy O’Hara can bury Single Gaze on the fence and give her an easy run, I believe this mare can finish top four. It would be some story if she won, Ronnie.
Dufficy: I can see why she is the sentimental favourite and understandably so. She is the toughest mare in Australia but a 3200m Melbourne Cup is a whole new pain barrier and I have to oppose her.
WALL OF FIRE
Thomas: There is a very confident push for this English stayer. He did race against Red Cardinal in the Belmont Gold Cup and finished down the track but his Herbert Power run when a closing second to Lord Fandango was very good. He has had that all-important lead-up run here.
Dufficy: I like Wall Of Fire a lot but a few people want to tell me he will struggle in a fast-run 3200m. I think he will be hard to beat judging by his Herbert Power effort. You can make a case that the winner that day, Lord Fandango, should very nearly have won the Caulfield Cup, too. All Wall Of Fire has to do is train on well and all the reports are he has, and he will be in the finish.
THOMAS HOBSON
Thomas: Every Irish journo I talk to this spring wants to tip this horse. He’s a serious stayer and won the Ascot Stakes over 4023m at Royal Ascot, so he won’t have a problem with the Cup trip. He hasn’t had a run here this spring but I can tell you he has been working very enthusiastically at Werribee.
Dufficy: I did my tips before the barrier draw on Saturday but I could easily have him on top. I know he hasn’t ticked that box about him having a run in Australia but the internationals who do race well in the Cup are the ones who had recent runs in Europe, which this horse has with his second at Doncaster. There are very positive reports about him and he will be hard to beat.
REKINDLING
Thomas: Rekindling is a still a three-year-old to northern hemisphere time but he has some very solid form this year, including beating Wicklow Brave in the Curragh Cup. He was also a bit unlucky in the English St Leger last start. I’m not tipping him but I’m not ruling him out, either.
Dufficy: I’m surprised there is a not a lot of support for Rekindling. He adds a lot of interest to this race but I just wonder if he is a work in progress for next year. I want to have a look at him on track today and to see if there is any confidence in the market place for him.
AMELIE’S STAR
Thomas: She won the Bart Cummings impressively, the same race Almandin won before he took out the Cup last year. Although she failed in the Caulfield Cup, there were excuses for her last start. She is a tough mare down in the weights.
Dufficy: I would like to promote her up my list because she easily defeated Almandin two starts back then was ridden upside down in the Caulfield Cup. With a more patient ride today, she will run the trip right out. A tough mare not without a winning chance.
CISMONTANE
Thomas: I still can’t work out how he won the Lexus Stakes on Derby Day. The horse was under siege on the turn but fought on magnificently to win. Look, he isn’t good enough to win a Melbourne Cup but with 50kg on his back he can run a competitive race and finish top 10.
Dufficy: He was so tough on Saturday but that wasn’t a proper race, it looked weak on paper. I’d be very surprised if he was in the finish.