Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ron Dufficy is keen on the progressive French Emperor to get the cash while Ray Thomas believes Joviality can go one better than her eye-catching first-up second.

A good first-up effort has Joviality ready to break through for an overdue win. Picture: Grant Guy

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances at the 10-race Inglis Millennium meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

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SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 3, No.9: FRENCH EMPEROR

NEXT BEST

Race 9, No.13: SILENT IMPACT

BEST VALUE

Race 2, No.9 VERY SHARP

RAY’S BEST

Race 7, No.7: JOVIALITY

NEXT BEST

Race 10, No.8: THROUGH THE CRACKS

VALUE BET

Race 5, No.5: YUKON

RACE 1: DARLEY LONHRO PLATE (1000m)

Ron Dufficy: I don’t mind this colt, Spacewalk. He sat wide without cover in the Breeders Plate when he ran fifth and it was a similar situation in his recent trial win. He won’t know himself from the inside draw. I’m interested in Cythera. She is a filly who has only had one trial when she worked from out wide and went to the line with her ears pricked. She looks to have talent. Plymstock did well on debut looking very strong to the line. Lady Laguna has the form on the board although her big win was on a heavy track so she might need more rain.

Ray Thomas: I’m with Lady Laguna. She won her only two starts during spring including a runaway effort at Rosehill on wet ground. She’s a filly with tactical speed and will put herself into the contest from the start. With the jar out of the track, I think she can maintain her unbeaten record. Tragara has created a good impression at the trials and is ready to run a competitive race on debut. Deep Expectation and Plymstock ran the quinella at Randwick last start – the latter finishing fast to win – and both rate among the main chances.

Lady Laguna can maintain her unbeaten record. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1200m)

Dufficy: This is one of the strongest Highways I’ve seen in a long, long time. I’m looking for one at odds here in Very Sharp. She fits in well here after finishing off nicely in a benchmark 64 provincial race. Two winners have come out of that race already and she gets in light from a good draw. Commando Hunt is silly odds at $23. Blinkers are back on off a lovely recent trial and he will be charging home. I would have tipped Testator Silens from a barrier. He is a big, raw talent and it was a huge win before his break. If he gets any luck from the draw, he will be hard to beat. Participator has a boom on him after two easy home track wins. He was let amble around in a recent trial.

Thomas: Participator is three-year-old who has had just two starts, winning both at Wagga, and this is a significant test of his emerging ability. He’s in very good hands with trainer Tim Donnelly, the booking of Hugh Bowman is significant, and I’ve got him on top in a very tough race. Anethole is back in winning form and with even luck from his wide barrier, he will be in the finish again. Testator Silens has also drawn right off the track but he’s another promising sprinter. Billabong Isle is a speedy filly coming off three successive wins.

RACE 3: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1600m)

Dufficy: I think French Emperor is better than a Midway horse, Ray. He was thrown into the deep end in a couple of good races last preparation when he was just too raw. I thought that was a very strong Class 1 race he won at Kembla first-up the other day and I feel he can go right on with the job. Tycoon Hallie could switch right with the addition of blinkers. Another at big odds, King Ratel, also has the blinkers going on and he was good late last start. Lennon has found some form winning last start and is dropping in grade.

Thomas: French Emperor defeated older horses with authority when resuming at the provincials, putting a margin on his rivals. Promising three-year-old with obvious staying ability. Lightly raced and still learning but has considerable upside. Tycoon Hallie has been beaten as favourite in two provincial starts this campaign but she drops 5kg here and will be competitive. Icecrusher just missed at Warwick Farm when resuming and will be fitter. So Sneeky is racing well and would have been close to top pick but has to overcome a wide draw.

A positive market move for Kallos suggests he is ready to run well. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 4: RANVET SPRINT (1000m)

Dufficy: Guessing game here but I’m with Kallos. He is a Group 2-winning three-year-old and the market move for him on Wednesday suggests he might be in order for this race. Malkovich was very good without winning in three runs last preparation. He just has to handle that big weight first-up in a race that sets up well for him. Sky Command only won a benchmark 72 last start but the jar out of the track and light weight are her biggest assets.

Thomas: Malkovich has to contend with a “good’’ horse’s weight of 62.5kg but that is just what he is, a good horse. He ran three successive second placings in feature races during the spring and resumes off a brilliant trial win at Randwick. He will take catching. Sky Command held off a promising horse in Able Willie at Canterbury and although this is a sharp rise in grade, she drops 6.5kg and will be hard to beat. Kallos showed ability last spring and Wisdom Of Water is very fit and racing in top form.

RACE 5: DAVALI THOROUGHBREDS CUP (1600m)

Dufficy: I thought Yukon did enough first-up, the mile suits him better and he should go close. Through Irish Eyes is off a long break but he is a real stayer who won a St Leger in his first racing preparation and he looked sharp enough at the trials. I think he is ready to run well at a mile first-up. The Ritz is from the Michael Costa stable that has good success when they bring them to Sydney. This horse gives the impression he will enjoy the mile. Fleetwood Maca is a likely improver.

Thomas: Yukon worked to the line well when resuming for third behind Bring The Ransom indicating he is in for a good preparation. He goes out to 1600m second-up here which suits and he does look the one to beat. Fleetwood Maca followed her Canberra win with a solid effort when third at Randwick. She’s racing well and rates among the main chances. If this race is run to suit, Arctic Thunder does have a powerful finishing surge. I’m wary of Mr Gee who has trialled nicely.

Yukon produced a good effort first-up and looks suited going to the mile. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6: INGLIS MILLENNIUM (1100m)

Dufficy: This is a good, deep race, which it has been the last few years. I’ve ended up with Boldinho who is a very likeable horse even though he is still a maiden. He did start favourite in the Inglis Nursery but he had no room in the straight. I think he will be very hard to beat from that good draw as he maps so well. The danger is Zambeze River. He ran second in the Breeders Plate on debut and has had two trials to prepare for this race. He sets up well. Calgary Stampede is massive odds. He did all the work in the Inglis Nursery coming across from a wide barrier and he stuck on well. He will give a sight at big odds. It’s hard to knock Sejardan. He has done really well to win both starts, he has plenty of desire but I couldn’t get him as short in the market in such a competitive field.

Thomas: Sejardan could not have been more impressive in his two wins during spring, weaving through the field and finishing fast to win the Breeders Plate before sustaining a long run from back in the field to take out the Golden Gift. He’s blessed with natural ability and race sense to go with his fierce will-to-win. He’s drawn ideally in the middle of the field and with even luck, he’s the one to beat. I don’t mind Emperor at odds. He hasn’t had much luck in his two starts but shows considerable promise and he’s drawn to get the right run. I agree with you, Ronnie, Calgary Stampede is way over the odds and Paris Dior, a brilliant last start winner, has been heavily backed to win.

RACE 7: VINERY HANDICAP (1300m)

Dufficy: There are a lot of non-winners here. When you add up the days between wins, it is 3888 days between the 10 of them. Incredulous Dream will find this easier than the Magic Millions mares race and she is nicely placed. If I’m tipping Incredulous Dream then Van Giz has to be around the mark as she finished alongside that mare in the Magic Millions race. Joviality was off the boil at her last two preparations but she is a talented mare and if we can trust her first-up runs she can win but I want to see her do it two starts in a row. Steel Diamond wasn’t suited going back in distance last start but the brilliance of Jamie Kah might be just what she needs.

Thomas: Joviality showed something like her best form first-up when she beat all but the in-form Rule Of Law. She’s back to mares grade and is ready to win. Van Giz has had plenty of racing but is holding her form and on the back-up after a close third at Rosehill last Saturday. Lady Banff is another working her way back to top form and Misteed is always at value odds.

Paulele can maintain his perfect Randwick record when he resumes on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 8: ESKIMO PRINCE STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: When you pulled this race apart it comes down to two main chances, Converge and Paulele. I’m thinking Converge because of the better price. Converge looked a start in the winter but he wasn’t himself in the Run To The Rose and they put him straight out. Gee, I’ve loved the way he has sprinted to the line in his two trials coming into this race. Although he is more a miler, the trials have prompted me to put him on top. Paulele is the one to beat. He’s a good colt and has won his four starts at Randwick. Ranch Hand should run well. James McDonald sticks with Ranch Hand which is interesting as he is the usual rider of Paulele. Ranch Hand has been well held in his trials and is one to watch. Giannis has been gelded and will be running on.

Thomas: I’ve gone the other way with Paulele on top. He’s unbeaten in four Randwick starts including two over the 1200m course, he races well fresh and the improving track is in his favour. Hilal is a big watch for mine. He came of age last spring winning the Stan Fox Stakes and Bondi Stakes before his spell and he looked really sharp winning his trial on Monday. Converge is trialling brilliantly and will be very hard to beat. Ranch Hand comes out of the Hilal trial where he went to the line hard held and he does have a good first-up record.

RACE 9: TAB HANDICAP (1200m)

Dufficy: I think Silent Impact is a good horse, Ray. He got the job done well first-up, he has to take full advantage of his good draw, hold his position and he will be hard to beat again. Maotai is the danger. He is an aggressive horse with plenty of talent and speed. He needs to learn to harness that speed and if he does then he will go close to winning. Amiche has had a nice tick-over trial on Monday to prepare for this and is sure to run well. Soami has a nice record and is usually performs well fresh.

Thomas: Silent Impact has won three of his four starts, comes off a dominant first-up win, gets the run of the race from barrier two and should be too good for his older rivals. I also have Maotai running the quinella. They are both promising three-year-olds. Lancaster Bomber never runs a bad race and Rustic Steel can sprint well fresh.

Promising three-year-old Silent Impact can beat his older rivals. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 10: YARRAMAN PARK HCP (1600m)

Dufficy: Purple Sector has put together some god runs this campaign. He went back in distance last start which didn’t suit but a mile fourth-up is ideal. He should come across with Frosty Rocks, settled on speed and get his chance to win. Through The Cracks is going to be hard to beat. At his only previous run at a mile, he was beaten less than a length in a Villiers Stakes. Frosty Rocks gets complete control up front which he loves and his Randwick mile runs are great. I’m a little wary of Luncies first-up if he is in order.

Thomas: Through The Cracks has been placed at stakes level in both starts this campaign and is ready to win. The Randwick 1600m suits perfectly and he does have a strong finishing burst. Lackeen comes off a determined last start win over this course and distance. Purple Sector will appreciate getting out to 1600m and gets his chance. Frosty Rocks has been improved by two runs from a spell and will be in front for a long way.

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 1, No.6: FOREVER YOU

A Galileo sister to an Irish Derby winner. Worth a fortune at stud but is showing Saturday city class, even stakes talent right now.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.2: RUINART

Above-average filly from the John O’Shea stable who had her share of excuses when a still honourable second at Canterbury first-up.

VALUE BET

Race 5, No.1: RAPID RELOAD

Had an interrupted career so far but looks to be on his way now after a fine first-up run here over 1250m and goes 1400m here.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,8

Race 6: 1,3,5

Race 7: 9,10

Race 8: 4,5

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Christian Reith has enough horse power (before scratchings) to rack up enough points to go close in the TAB Jockeys Challenge.

GILGANDRA

BEST BET

Race 3, No.1: PURPLE CUP

Lyle Chandler can keep his fantastic strike-rate intact via this grey gelding who is ‘one for one’ at the venue - and in-form too.

NEXT BEST

Race 1, No.2: JESTA DIVA

Took 18 starts to win a race but she has been runner-up 6 times. This track has just got to suit her surely.

VALUE BET

Race 7, No.3: BRING THE JOY

Good, tough typical Magic Albert mare who is very well placed indeed here for a seventh career win at start 51.

Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis